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, 4 tweets, 2 min read
NEW: German arm of Thomas Cook - Condor Airlines - is getting a €380 million six month KfW bridging loan from German Govt/ Hesse Govt/ - continuing all flights, and keeping all 4,900 jobs and will “free itself” from insolvency claims against Thomas Cook
NB - last week KFW, which will provide the loan, Germany’s business lending bank set up with Marshall funds, borrowed at an all time low yield of .... -0.394% over 7 years, and was oversubscribed with this negative yield... kfw.de/PDF/Investor-R…
For the many people asking about how the EU allows such a temporary bailout on state aid rules - if loan is 6 months or less in duration it can qualify as “rescue aid” - but they are awaiting confirmation of that - relevant case is Alitalia... europa.eu/rapid/press-re…
Then again KFW (see above) can presumably make a margin on lending money at not much more than 0 per cent... so how does all that work? Not sure what KFW’s lending rates are.
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Government pushed ahead with countdown phase of these ”Get Ready” ads...
am I missing something? These preparations are only necessary for No Deal Brexit - Deal Brexit means transition & all arrangements remain same.

No deal = extension or courts

“There might only be 25 days”?
The former Number 10 pollster @jamesjohnson252 wrote in Times yesterday that £138m ad campaign involves an attempt to “make Brexit and no deal synonymous” motivated by fact that polling shows effectiveness of argument that no deal does not reflect the 2016 referendum result...
Government in a fact sheet put out last night says it is trying to encourage preparedness and that action more likely when people know there is less than 30 days, and there is no politicisation, no ministerial direction.

doesn’t Benn act mean Oct 31st against law? “No...”
Read 5 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
So a lot happening today - but Irish Budget interesting, based on No Deal as central assumption. €1 billion , €410 million is for social protection/ welfare.

No Deal Brexit sees 3.8% hit to GDP (similar to IFS UK number) and 2% hit to jobs over 5 years:
Ireland currently runs a surplus, so has earmarked extra borrowing if needed to support agriculture, business/ tourism and food in No Deal.
Eg €85 million for beef farmers, €14m for fisheries, €40m for tourism...
(NB UK equivalent is Kingfisher - still not much detail on this)
... and €365 million No Deal spending for extra Social Protection Spending for registered unemployed - given the register is at about 180k, that’s about €2k per person.

They are supporting transformation/ transition of businesses with grants, loans & equity funding
Read 3 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
NEW no deal tariff schedule - three revisions.

- HGV tariffs now removed to help hauliers
- some extra tariffs on clothes to maintain support for LDCs
- extra tariffs on imported bioethanol to protect UK production

But no move on refineries & farms

gov.uk/government/new…
Tariff on women’s blouses now 12% generally, but means less developed countries such as Bangladesh keep their advantage of 0 tariff...
Bioethanol now 6.5%
HGVs off list so saving hauliers thousands against tariff listed in March (though same as current situation for EU imports)
Also women’s & girls jackets, bathrobes, dressing gowns also now facing a general 12 % tariff. Which maintains 0% preference for LDCs such as Bangladesh. But will raise prices for direct EU imports.
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@sri9011
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