Almost a year ago, the market was clearly saying the Fed had made a policy error and we were heading into recession (nevertheless they persisted thru Dec!). I posted charts of relevant sectors in total freefall. One year later, housing/rocks = all clear. Autos/flooring = so so.
Housing 
Rocks
Flooring
Autos
I am not an expert on autos, but I do wonder how much F/GM are being impacted by international auto markets vs the domestic market which seems broadly stable
And Light Trucks are strong
So if you accept the framing of what US recessions generally are, the major difference between now and one year ago is the Fed is cutting not hiking, housing is accelerating not declining, and autos are generally stable.
So a recession today would be more of the externally caused variety debated in 2015/16, which has been much less likely to occur in the US given the composition of the economy. That's why late last year was scary, because domestic components started to show weakness.
I'm not downplaying chances of recession. The US essentially had an industrial recession in late 15/16. It's possible the rest of the economy won't be able to overcome external/ manufacturing weakness this time. But I think it's important to note a shift in where the debate lies.
Most of the time it comes down to the 🐐 vs everything else. Personal Consumption Expenditures just don't go negative in the US very often. On Y/Y basis, 16 quarters total since 1948, and 7 quarters since 1982, 6 of which were in the GFC.
If you prefer Q/Q, it's 25 quarters since 1948 and 9 total since 1982, 3 of which were in the 90/91 recession and 6 around the GFC
