I’m looking forward to hearing from @EsperDoD today, because what we’ve been told so far doesn’t make a lot of sense. Erdogan has been threatening to invade Syria for years now and I’m not sure why we acquiesced after he allegedly gave 48-hours notice.
In other words, the presence of American service members has successfully helped deter the Turks from taking this kind of action in the past. It’s unclear why this would have suddenly changed, and it suggests that ultimately, Erdogan was bluffing.
If, however, Erdogan was not bluffing, we have even bigger problems because it would mean would-be aggressors do not fear American retaliation. Ask yourself: would Erdogan have felt comfortable risking the lives of 50 Russian service members?
This all boils down to the credibility of American deterrence. When deterrence breaks down, conflict is more likely and we lose the ability to dictate the terms of engagement.
