Thread by @Charles_Lister

Never has the self-suicide of #Syria's mainstream opposition been more clear than in recent days.

#Afrin was really bad, but this NE incursion (its manner; its consequences etc.) is truly beyond the pale -- in truth, what we've witnessed is a #Turkish campaign through-&-through.

It's clear now that the Dec 2016 loss of #Aleppo - in large part due to #Turkey selling it out to #Russia - was *the* turning point.

Opposition factions lost any sense of autonomy of action & over the years that followed, everyone but #JFS-#HTS & #AlQaeda existed *for* #Ankara.

An #American presence in NE #Syria kept at least some of this #Turkish ambition under wraps (just ), but #Trump's naive (or malicious?) "green light" decision after speaking with #Erdogan let everything loose.

Only now are we seeing the consequences -- and they're not yet clear.

In the space of 4 days, a force (the #SDF) that #America had described as the best non-state partner ever, has collapsed & surrendered to #Assad, #Russia (& #Iran, FWIW).

The terms have emerged, but the consequences have not. Don't expect this to be a stable transition at all.

The #SDF isn't a united actor: the #YPG will abide by terms for now, but #Assad will not. As violations mount & suppression of #YPG intensifies, expect trouble.

Arab tribes will split - some to #Damascus, others to anti-#Assad/#Iran resistance; some independently, some to #ISIS.

As #Russia seeks to facilitate a complex return of "sovereign control" in NE #Syria, #Iran will do its own thing -- slowly creep back into society, recruit local militias & eventually, establish its own parallel security infrastructure near #Iraq's border.

- al-Bukamal/Qaim 2.0.

With time, #Turkey will come to a deal with #Russia, whereby #TSK/#SNA will be given authority over a buffer zone (probably ~10km).

That'll set a precedent likely to be replicated in #Idlib, where the zone will be much deeper - i.e. the "Gazafication" scenario (also not good).

Contrary to what some have claimed, this won't "end the war," not by any means -- this pushes the warS (multiple) underground.

- #ISIS will thrive
- #AlQaeda will find new space
- #HTS will remain & perhaps expand east
- #PKK will fight #Turkey & maybe #Assad
- #SNA will resist

As I wrote in July, "#Assad Hasn't Won Anything" - foreignpolicy.com/2019/07/11/ass…

Yes #Assad has won "bigly" in recent days, but my thinking remains the same. #Damascus lacks the capacity to hold/stabilize or govern taken areas.

Vacuums are there for the filling & actors will leap in

In paving the way for #Turkey's entry & #America's departure from #Syria, #Trump has "stirred up a hornet's nest."

My latest short post for @MiddleEastInst, looking at the likely consequences of today's chaos in NE #Syria:

mei.edu/blog/trump-sti…

@MiddleEastInst The inevitable eastern tribe-#SDF split is beginning to emerge.

Here, key Arab tribes within the #SDF make clear their refusal to submit to the #Assad regime (or #Iran), despite the #SDF/#YPG's deal in the northeast.

Seeds of more conflict:

https://twitter.com/Zendetta2022/status/1184395432421662722

@MiddleEastInst #America's chaotic withdrawal from #Syria represents a "dream scenario" for #ISIS & underlines the debilitating crisis in #Washington & the #Trump administration.

My latest @aawsat_News piece, translated into English:

mei.edu/publications/d…

@MiddleEastInst @aawsat_News Here's a valuable glimpse into #Trump's thinking on #Syria, from this morning:

- "I view the situation on the #Turkish border with #Syria to be, for the U.S., strategically brilliant… #Syria’s protecting the #Kurds; they’re safe… There’s a lot of sand that they can play with."

@MiddleEastInst @aawsat_News #Trump is really on a roll today:

"Take a look at the #PKK -- #ISIS respects the #PKK more than anyone... they're tough or tougher than #ISIS.

Were making the #Kurds look like angels. It's wonderful."

@MiddleEastInst @aawsat_News WOW.

#Trump just accused the #SDF of releasing #ISIS detainees in #Syria "for a political impact."