Turkey confirms it will stop shooting if the #YPG surrenders

And apparently that's a ceasefire
Oh Turkey clarifies it is not, in fact, a ceasefire

But if the #YPG surrenders to this non-ceasefire, the US will not impose sanctions on Turkey

And the non-ceasefire happens to expire on the day #Erdogan will meet with #Putin to negotiate the ACTUAL fate of eastern Syria
Someone tell me I'm misunderstanding this because on my read this is another colossal American concession to Turkey
Oh Turkey also thinks it will be collecting the #YPG weapons in the 120 hour "pause" of operations while the YPG abandons its territory, after which the ceasefire aka Turkish victory will occur

@marcorubio Will be important to watch whether the #YPG does actually withdraw from areas in the 30KM zone and, if they do, whether regime forces move in
@marcorubio Worth noting that the #YPG/#SDF has interest in signaling its willingness to accept a ceasefire (at least as a matter of principle), since #Turkey is working hard to discredit it

YPG also needs to limit the scope & scale of Turkey's push. This buys time for Russia to step in
@marcorubio Important clarification here. Mazloum does not accept a withdrawal, Turkey's demand, and is limiting the scope of a ceasefire to the zone between Tel Abyad and Ras al Ayn where fighting is currently ongoing

@marcorubio Bottom line for how I expect this to shake out: the US removes our threatened sanctions on Turkey after it agrees to a deal in eastern Syria that Russia will broker after a 120 hour operational pause.

So basically, the threat of US sanctions will help Russia get a deal
@marcorubio Now, its entirely possible that whatever Putin & Erodgan negotiate at the end of the 120 hours does not in fact end the fighting. They may not reach a deal or they may reach a deal that only limits the scope of the fighting. Will create a ? whether US sanctions still in play
@marcorubio In true Syrian form, Putin & Erdogan may call a deal that stipulates what Turkey gets to conquer next a "ceasefire"

We just provided incentive for that & it doesn't seem to matter to us whether the YPG accepts it

May not matter to Putin either, btw. YPG has no leverage
#Turkey is (predictably) resuming military operations today

The #YPG didn’t agree to withdraw so I suppose technically the “deal” was dead on arrival and therefore Turkey isn’t violating it

Goes to show what a nothing diplomatic outcome this was
I suspect the #YPG wasn’t even consulted in advance despite the YPG’s claim to be involved in negotiations over the so-called ceasefire

They *have* to claim that, or they lose even the perception of leverage here
After reports from @syriahr and others that sporadic clashes and shelling continued, Erdogan claims its disinformation

He could be lying. Or he may not have firm control over his proxy militias

@syriahr #Turkey also conducted at least one airstrike near Ras al Ayn after the #SDF reportedly sent in a convoy

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Jennifer Cafarella

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!