Oh Turkey clarifies it is not, in fact, a ceasefire
Someone tell me I'm misunderstanding this because on my read this is another colossal American concession to Turkey
Oh Turkey also thinks it will be collecting the #YPG weapons in the 120 hour "pause" of operations while the YPG abandons its territory, after which the ceasefire aka Turkish victory will occur
@marcorubio Will be important to watch whether the #YPG does actually withdraw from areas in the 30KM zone and, if they do, whether regime forces move in
@marcorubio Worth noting that the #YPG/#SDF has interest in signaling its willingness to accept a ceasefire (at least as a matter of principle), since #Turkey is working hard to discredit it
YPG also needs to limit the scope & scale of Turkey's push. This buys time for Russia to step in
YPG also needs to limit the scope & scale of Turkey's push. This buys time for Russia to step in
@marcorubio Important clarification here. Mazloum does not accept a withdrawal, Turkey's demand, and is limiting the scope of a ceasefire to the zone between Tel Abyad and Ras al Ayn where fighting is currently ongoing
@marcorubio Bottom line for how I expect this to shake out: the US removes our threatened sanctions on Turkey after it agrees to a deal in eastern Syria that Russia will broker after a 120 hour operational pause.
So basically, the threat of US sanctions will help Russia get a deal
So basically, the threat of US sanctions will help Russia get a deal
@marcorubio Now, its entirely possible that whatever Putin & Erodgan negotiate at the end of the 120 hours does not in fact end the fighting. They may not reach a deal or they may reach a deal that only limits the scope of the fighting. Will create a ? whether US sanctions still in play
@marcorubio In true Syrian form, Putin & Erdogan may call a deal that stipulates what Turkey gets to conquer next a "ceasefire"
We just provided incentive for that & it doesn't seem to matter to us whether the YPG accepts it
May not matter to Putin either, btw. YPG has no leverage
We just provided incentive for that & it doesn't seem to matter to us whether the YPG accepts it
May not matter to Putin either, btw. YPG has no leverage
I suspect the #YPG wasn’t even consulted in advance despite the YPG’s claim to be involved in negotiations over the so-called ceasefire
They *have* to claim that, or they lose even the perception of leverage here
They *have* to claim that, or they lose even the perception of leverage here
After reports from @syriahr and others that sporadic clashes and shelling continued, Erdogan claims its disinformation
He could be lying. Or he may not have firm control over his proxy militias
He could be lying. Or he may not have firm control over his proxy militias
@syriahr #Turkey also conducted at least one airstrike near Ras al Ayn after the #SDF reportedly sent in a convoy
news.yahoo.com/sporadic-clash…
news.yahoo.com/sporadic-clash…
