, 6 tweets, 2 min read
Ouch. Long-term (5Y) inflation expectations from the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters fell to a new all-time low, from 1.74% to 1.67% in Q3. (1/n)
The distribution of SPF inflation outcomes - closely monitored by the ECB - has not deteriorated much further in Q3, but it remains too low and too flat overall. (2/n)
As a result, the risk of a 'low-flation' regime becoming entrenched in SPF expectations remains high, at 37% in Q3. (3/n)
The anchoring of SPF inflation expectations has started to deteriorate this year, e.g. using a rolling regression against actual inflation. A red line for the ECB, and rightly so. (4/n)
The long-term GDP growth expectations from the ECB's SPF have stabilised for the first time in over 3 years, although this remains the most depressing chart ever. (5/n)
In the end, back to you Mr. President: "unfortunately everything that's happened since our monetary policy decisions has shown abundantly that the Governing Council's determination to act in a substantive manner was justified." (6/6)
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