A sobering fact.
Remain parties won 53% of the vote.
Leave parties won 47% of the vote.
How, then, did the Tories emphatically win?
And what does Labour need to do about it?
(and, yes, at the end, I will highlight why my polling analysis was wrong)
1/17
Remain parties won 53% of the vote.
Leave parties won 47% of the vote.
How, then, did the Tories emphatically win?
And what does Labour need to do about it?
(and, yes, at the end, I will highlight why my polling analysis was wrong)
1/17
The Tories won due to:
1) Distribution of Leave vote
2) Ruthlessness
3) Splintering of remain
In terms of 1)
If you imagine Leave and Remain as political parties, Leave would win on 47% of the vote, because Leave is more evenly distributed. Remain piles up in cities.
2/17
1) Distribution of Leave vote
2) Ruthlessness
3) Splintering of remain
In terms of 1)
If you imagine Leave and Remain as political parties, Leave would win on 47% of the vote, because Leave is more evenly distributed. Remain piles up in cities.
2/17
In terms of 2)
Johnson kicked out Tory remain dissenters. He made the Tory party the Brexit party.
He then called a Brexit election.
Given the better distribution of leave voters, it was necessary to unite them if he was going to win. He succeeded.
3/17
Johnson kicked out Tory remain dissenters. He made the Tory party the Brexit party.
He then called a Brexit election.
Given the better distribution of leave voters, it was necessary to unite them if he was going to win. He succeeded.
3/17
And in terms of 3)
If the primary vote motivation IS Brexit (contrary to polls where NHS had moved ahead), then Remain parties, even on a united platform where one Remain party stood per seat, would still lose.
Splintering just made it worse. Tactical voting wasn't enough
4/17
If the primary vote motivation IS Brexit (contrary to polls where NHS had moved ahead), then Remain parties, even on a united platform where one Remain party stood per seat, would still lose.
Splintering just made it worse. Tactical voting wasn't enough
4/17
The British electorate are socially right-wing and economically left-wing.
Majorities of people support the death penalty and strict immigration, and high taxes on the rich and re-nationalisations
Left-right isn't a single continuum. It diverges socially and economically.
5/17
Majorities of people support the death penalty and strict immigration, and high taxes on the rich and re-nationalisations
Left-right isn't a single continuum. It diverges socially and economically.
5/17
It's easier for the Consevatives to align to this divergence than Labour - and that's how they pitched themselves at the election, even it they just lied about it.
So how can Labour respond?
If they want to beat the right, they need to understand a few brutal truths...
6/17
So how can Labour respond?
If they want to beat the right, they need to understand a few brutal truths...
6/17
Firstly, Corbyn didn't become toxic due to the Daily Mail or Sun.
He became toxic because of a coordinated facebook disinformation campaign that began in 2017 and has radicalised many traditional Labour voters.
Teams of people plant false but convincing posts in FB groups
7/17
He became toxic because of a coordinated facebook disinformation campaign that began in 2017 and has radicalised many traditional Labour voters.
Teams of people plant false but convincing posts in FB groups
7/17
You know the sort of post I mean
"My blood is boiling. In 2014 Corbyn..."
"A senior staff nurse just told me..."
This drip, drip, drip of thousands of toxic lies every week seeps into peoples consciousness. They don't even know why they hate Corbyn. They just do.
8/17
"My blood is boiling. In 2014 Corbyn..."
"A senior staff nurse just told me..."
This drip, drip, drip of thousands of toxic lies every week seeps into peoples consciousness. They don't even know why they hate Corbyn. They just do.
8/17
This is what helped elect Bolsonaro and Trump.
My own mother, a life-long Labour supporter 'hates Corbyn'.
I ask why. It's alt-right conspiracy theories. Stuff being shared in facebook groups. And she is beyond the point of reason.
This isn't propagating organically.
9/17
My own mother, a life-long Labour supporter 'hates Corbyn'.
I ask why. It's alt-right conspiracy theories. Stuff being shared in facebook groups. And she is beyond the point of reason.
This isn't propagating organically.
9/17
This is coordinated, mass propoganda on a scale the tabloids alone could never achieve.
The working classes are becoming radicalised and some may be lost to the far-right for good.
Labour need to wake the fuck up. This is why Corbyn is so toxic among this demographic.
10/17
The working classes are becoming radicalised and some may be lost to the far-right for good.
Labour need to wake the fuck up. This is why Corbyn is so toxic among this demographic.
10/17
And here's the thing: this will happen to ANY Labour leader.
It doesn't matter how decent, reasonable or honest they are, because these under-the-radar campaigns are based on the propagation of lies.
So how can Labour respond to this defeat?
11/17
It doesn't matter how decent, reasonable or honest they are, because these under-the-radar campaigns are based on the propagation of lies.
So how can Labour respond to this defeat?
11/17
Engage in the under-the-radar disinformation war.
Make every Tory leader bitterly toxic to the voters you need to win. Lie if you must - they will.
Yes, it's dirty. But do you want to get into power or not? Social media has broken our political system.
12/17
Make every Tory leader bitterly toxic to the voters you need to win. Lie if you must - they will.
Yes, it's dirty. But do you want to get into power or not? Social media has broken our political system.
12/17
The next election will be post-Brexit.
The Tories have a coalition of working class northerners, middle class southerns, the wealthy, business people, free marketeers, and nationalists
It will be impossible to hold that Coalition after Brexit. This should give Lab hope.
13/17
The Tories have a coalition of working class northerners, middle class southerns, the wealthy, business people, free marketeers, and nationalists
It will be impossible to hold that Coalition after Brexit. This should give Lab hope.
13/17
As for Corbyn.
He is a caring, honest, sensitive man who never wanted to be Leader. It was just 'his turn' to be the token left candidate.
The hate and abuse he and his family receive because of lies and disinformation must be hard to bear. I don't know how he copes.
14/17
He is a caring, honest, sensitive man who never wanted to be Leader. It was just 'his turn' to be the token left candidate.
The hate and abuse he and his family receive because of lies and disinformation must be hard to bear. I don't know how he copes.
14/17
Corbyn also deserves credit.
The overton window has moved to the left economically.
The Tories are now promising state intervention, bigger public spending, and an end to austerity.
That would never have happened without the shock result of GE17.
15/17
The overton window has moved to the left economically.
The Tories are now promising state intervention, bigger public spending, and an end to austerity.
That would never have happened without the shock result of GE17.
15/17
As for my own polling analysis, I called it wrong.
The surge in youth turnout did happen, but only in strongly remain areas.
The electorate IS more remain than leave, but with inefficient vote distribution.
None of the data showed the level of Con surge in NE/Midlands.
16/17
The surge in youth turnout did happen, but only in strongly remain areas.
The electorate IS more remain than leave, but with inefficient vote distribution.
None of the data showed the level of Con surge in NE/Midlands.
16/17
I am devastated. I fear for our future. Lies won over the truth. A sociopath triumphed over a decent, caring man.
Right now, there are tears in my eyes.
But I am angry. And I will fight - whatever it takes.
And if you, like me, are prepared to do the same, we can win.
END
Right now, there are tears in my eyes.
But I am angry. And I will fight - whatever it takes.
And if you, like me, are prepared to do the same, we can win.
END
