Thread by @hxhassan

A few quick thoughts on #Turkey’s calculations and limitations on #Idlib, #Syria. #thread

It’s easy to get sidetracked by daily events about Turkey’s real concerns and priority. But we have about two decades, years before the Syrian conflict, to understand #Turkey’s thinking/approach. Specifically, I mean its approach in Iraq after 2003 (not the decades-long PKK war).

First, Turkey has never cared about #Idlib as a strategic objective. Idlib became more important as a real estate when the Turkish forces seized Kurdish areas in NW Syria in 2018 & because of the deepened US presence in the NE post-2016.

It can let Idlib go but not like so.

Yes there are immediate concerns for Turkey+Erdogan, like another refugees wave. But that’s not really the only (or even overarching) concern. Turkey fears the loss of Idlib could now simply mean the end of its presence in Syria & any viable strategy against Syria's Kurds.

Turkey sees its entire strategy and longterm goals collapsing in Idlib. And that’s indeed a sound assessment -- nothing else will make it possible to “stay in the game” in NW Syria or keep an eye on what the US does in NE Syria and ultimately oversee an end to YPG support.

Ultimately, the Turkish thinking in Syria is consistent with its thinking over the past 2 decades, even before the Syrian conflict. Specifically toward Iraq.

Turkey still kicks itself for not securing north Iraq from the PKK, even though it tried for years after the 2003 invasion to establish a foothold in places like Tal Afar near its southern borders. It kept making such threats of incursion. That influences its thinking in Syria.

Its Syria presence is at risk, & with it every policy it can ever build for Syria or Iraq. Once it loses Idlib in this manner, it can lose everything. If it's done through a deal with Russia, and not pushed by the regime & Iran, it can limit its presence to the rural areas north.

Turkey is freaking out not because it cares about Idlib, or even because it fears refugees. As in Iraq, Turkey’s top concern in Syria is the Rural North (undergoverned spaces & villages/towns near its borders). In Syria, that means Aleppo & Idlib countryside, not Idlib/Aleppo.

An important (if not confirmed) update:

Chatter about a Russia proposal to keep Turkey happy, limiting its presence to a 6km strip along the Syrian-Turkish borders. Turkey reportedly unimpressed. (Via @Charles_Lister)

16km*

According to @Fr_faham, Russia and Turkey haven’t reached an agreement as Ankara insists on the previous agreement of Sochi & Moscow wants a new deal based on new facts on the ground. A Russian proposal has been rejected by Turkey, in next tweet:

Russia’s offer to Turkey:
• Turkish presence to be limited to 16km inside Syria
• Russian checkpoints in the crossing between Idlib & Afrin
• open international highways under Russian & Turkish joint oversight
• Turkish checkpoints retreat to the new zone, except joint ones