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Swap lines to EM please (also to Australia - we like Australia in Asia too as it's APAC). "the supply of liquidity by central banks is beneficial only to those who can access it," said @Trinhnomics

Had a paragraph in op ed that was cut out re EM Asia swaps (EM economist obvs)🙇🏻‍♀️
My old paragraph:

Operationally, the bid for USD in Asia and squeeze in liquidity reflects the massive role of the USD in the global economy & finance. For example, 87% of China merchandise trade is invoiced in US.
and the loss of income from export earnings will further push higher the demand of USD. To overcome the global USD squeeze, the Fed must step up its operational support via swap lines with economies such as South Korea.
Australia needs a swap line. Purleasssse. AUD languishing everyday 🙇🏻‍♀️🙇🏻‍♀️🙇🏻‍♀️🇦🇺🦘🥶
Guys, the reason why we have a dollar shortage is because we have levered!!!!!!!!!!!

So when income collapses, we got major problem because we have leveraged & so debt needs servicing etc. Aniwaize, the stress u see is because we live in a world that's too leveraged!!!
Don't forget that low rates only lower interest expense, u still got principal that is high if ur debt stock is high.

When u lever, u think the FUTURE IS BETTER THAN TODAY. Obvs very clearly that whoever thought there was growth is in for a surprise given the pandemic siutation.
The ringgit doing that thing it does when it feels kind of stressed 🇲🇾
SGD too - swaps please!!!
Euro-area banks get 112bn from Fed thanks to the swap line w/ the ECB at 0.38% and 0.45%.

What about emerging markets???? Give us some too!!! Por favor! 🙇🏻‍♀️🙇🏻‍♀️🙇🏻‍♀️
Banks take USD7.245bn in 84-day dollar funding & 8.2bn in 7-day USD

Swap line for EM pleaseeee!!! 🙇🏻‍♀️🙇🏻‍♀️🙇🏻‍♀️

@notayesmansecon
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More from @Trinhnomics see all

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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
We need to ban members of congress from using insider information for their benefit (incl Pelosi). Did you know that they make laws to benefit themselves & have not banned congress from insider trading? Don't think this is a GOP thing. Democrats do it too!
too.cbsnews.com/video/confront…
@SpeakerPelosi on insider information & stocks 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻:

barrons.com/articles/nancy…
Why congress needs to be watched!!! 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻 Do you know what Mark Twain said:

"We have the best government money can buy 😉"

and, wait for it:

"There is no distincly American criminal class - except Congress."

represent.us/action/insider…
Read 9 tweets
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
So the speedy swap lines did help soften the dollar strength, esp to those that got it. Look at Asian FX vs the USD in a 1 day move.

👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻

Some asked why swap lines matter & why this helped. I'll go through it soon 😎 Image
Statement from the RBA on the swap line (60bn): So the RBA can use AUD to get USD & then the RBA lends to local banks by taking in AUD-denominated securities & LEND USD (at a very good rate as it gets cheap USD supply from the Fed).

This is something I argued in the op ed. Image
Key here is that the supply of liquidity the Fed injects is only "beneficial to those w/ access to it." So to overcome the operational & credit liquidity squeeze, the Fed has to up its operational game.

That's what it did last night by giving ACCESS of cheap USD liquidity to RBA
Read 13 tweets
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
We have borrowed against our future, consumed most of the resources yesterday, and now face a shrunken present and an absolutely uncertain future.

Our Minsky Moment has been decades in the making. This is where we are & where do we go from here.
Cross border claims by nationality of reporting banks & by currency via @BIS_org March 2020 report:

Look at the size of Japan (>US banks) + France + ESPECIALLY OTHER in USD.

Meaning, NON US BANKS LENDING A LOT OF USD & they now got a liquidity problem & need access to cheap USD
Global debt securities market - notice that largest issuance is in USD & why the USD is key
Read 16 tweets

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FunkLip is Rich
@funkomi
Okay sooo I’m going to run some numbers / breakdown on this (mortgaged) house vs REIT something. I’m not letting it go.
Lets go:

So you + lil family need somewhere to live. Your options are:

(1) Buy a £500k 3-bed home with a £50k deposit and a 30 year mortgage at 1.5% interest. The monthly payments are £750

(2) Rent that same 3-bed home. You get to keep your £50k and the monthly rent is £1,750
You decide that a mortgage is the ghetto and you want “LiQuIdiTy”. You put your £50k straight into a REIT.
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pippocamminadritto
@guado77
l'impulso dalla creazione di quasi 3Trilioni di $ di riserve non spinge in maniera coerente e costante l'elargizione di nuovo credito da parte delle banche US👉NON C'E' DOMANDA
la moneta creata non "gira" come potrebbe/dovrebbe e lo vedi su
-Linea Nera:Inflazione attesa 5y FWD
...perché accade tutto questo?
perché da oltre 10 anno l'unico intento delle CBs è quello di salvaguardare il sistema finanziario come l'abbiamo sempre "conosciuto"...ma che è morto esattamente 11 anni fa...NON SIAMO MAI USCITI DALLA GFC 2008/09 e non usciremo mai in questo modo
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Filomena Rocha
@Filomen03258997
31. The Legacy of US, UK, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bahrain, Canada, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Australia, Jordan, Nato in Syria

#RegimeChange #FakeNews #FalseFlag #terrorism #SyriaInvasion #WarCrimes #CrimesAgainstHumanity
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Millennial Macro
@MillennialMacro
$USD #liquidity
1/ While the US Dollar has pulled back in January it was not unexpected looking at net issuance by the US Treasury and the rate of change in excess reserves. Using a 3 month adv. on net issuance and excess reserves their may be further upside to the US Dollar.
$USD #liquidity
2/ There was a small uptick in global liquidity in December 2018 in rate of change terms. This has supported many markets that were oversold. However, there has been no sizeable change in trend. Will know more once January data is released.
#equities #liquidity
3/ If we have a closer look at the rate of change in the major central bank balance sheets we can see the contraction throughout 2018. The rate of change in the MSCI All World Index tracks it closely. Again notice the slight uptick in December 2018.
Read 59 tweets
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Christophe Barraud🛢
@C_Barraud
🇨🇳 #CHINA Q3 GDP Y/Y: 6.5% V 6.6%E (slowest growth since Q1 2009)
*NBS spokesman Mao Shengyong said that the international situation was bringing “downward pressure” on China.
*Link: bloom.bg/2RVX1ZA
🇫🇷 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 French tire maker Michelin warned of declining sales in Europe and #China in the second half of the year, dragging down shares of its competitors in the U.S. and Europe - Bloomberg
*Statement: bit.ly/2EujhqH
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bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 634 tweets
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Millennial Macro
@MillennialMacro
#demographics #militaries #economies #currencies
#USA
- Best demographics
- Largest military
- Largest economy
- Most used currency
- Liquid financial markets
- Open capital account
- Rule of law
- Best geography
- Can be self sufficient if required
- Not trade dependent
#USA
Top trade partners as of 30 June 2018:
- China: 15.2% (strategic competitor)
- Canada: 15.1%
- Mexico: 14.6%
- Japan: 5.1%
- Germany: 4.4%

The next 10 years could result in the below:
- Mexico (25%)
- Canada (20%
- Japan (7%)
- South Korea (5%)
- Great Britain (4%)
#USA
Bring the manufacturing (jobs) home while negatively impacting China's economy.
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