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NEW: Friday 27 March update of coronavirus mortality trajectories

• UK has more dead at this stage than any country except Spain & Italy ⚠️
• US now clearly more deaths than China or Iran, could soon pass France
• India added

Live version FREE TO READ ft.com/content/a26fbf…
All countries’ death trajectories:
• German curve still tracking Italy. Talk of Germany being on top of covid is premature
• India locked down early, but could yet follow Japan or Italy. Pop 1.3bn: which path it follows will be a huge story

All charts: ft.com/content/a26fbf…
Death toll trajectories in subnational regions:

• New York, Catalonia, Madrid, Paris: new urban epicentres
• London curve steepens, more than 60 new deaths in last 24h
• Florida & California steepening but still no nationwide US lockdown

All charts: ft.com/content/a26fbf…
Latest case trajectories for major countries:

• Turkey looks bad. Record number of confirmed cases at this stage
• Cases edging up in HK & Singapore, concerns grow that outbreak hasn’t been contained there

Read about whether Chinese data are reliable: ft.com/content/4aa352…
This chart now shows ALL countries with several days of data over 100 confirmed cases, so you can compare case trajectories in the US to the UAE or China to Chile. 70 countries shown.

Live versions of all charts here: ft.com/content/a26fbf…
Here's my explainer on why we're using log scales:
And why we're showing absolute numbers rather than population-adjusted rates:
Please email john.burn-murdoch@ft.com with feedback, comments, requests & subnational data

All of these are invaluable, and we continue to incorporate your suggestions & data every day

I’ll keep getting back to as many people as poss.

Enjoy your locked-down Friday nights! 🙂🙃
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More from @jburnmurdoch see all

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John Burn-Murdoch
@jburnmurdoch
NEW: Fri 3 April update of coronavirus trajectories

First, daily new deaths
• US & UK both likely to pass Spain for peak daily deaths
• Daily death tolls in the thousands to become the norm in US
• UK now clearly steeper than Italy

Live charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…
How does that look cumulatively?
• US slope still far steeper than any other at this stage. Why? US is now dealing with multiple overlapping outbreaks, keeping the pace up. US will likely have highest death toll globally within a week.

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…
Now daily new cases:
• US still boldly going where no country has gone before, at >20k new confirmed cases per day. Destined to end up the worst-affected country in the world.
• France possibly joining Italy and Spain in seeing new cases plateau and begin to dip
Read 14 tweets
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John Burn-Murdoch
@jburnmurdoch
One more new chart thread today:

A cautionary tale for those who think lockdowns will end overnight and life will go straight back to normal.

Movie theatres were told to close when China’s outbreak began, with admissions dropping from millions to a trickle overnight.
~10 days ago, they started reopening, months after lockdowns began 😀

A week later, they were told to close again amid fears of a second outbreak 😔
This is probably how things will play out everywhere.

Restrictions will be released bit by bit, only to be reinstated wholly or in part as infections pick up again.

It’s not just going to be a case of "cool that’s done then, let’s make up for lost time!"
Read 3 tweets
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John Burn-Murdoch
@jburnmurdoch
NEW: Thurs 2 April update of coronavirus trajectories

First, daily new cases
• American exceptionalism. More than 20k new cases per day, each day more than the last
• Spain & Italy both seeing fewer new cases
• Japan’s outbreak continues

Live charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…
How does that look on the old cumulative chart?

• Globally we’ve now passed 1m confirmed cases. Almost 25% are in the US
• Fauci reckons US alone could easily pass 1m
• No signs yet of US curve flattening

All charts: ft.com/coronavirus-la…
Now daily new deaths:

• US & UK are straight lines angling upwards on a log scale. This is not good.
• In both countries, over the last week every day brings ~25% more new deaths than the day before
• No other countries are on that steep a trajectory at this stage of outbreak
Read 13 tweets

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