1/9: #Afghanistan is a stark reminder that in foreign policy you need both to be clear about your goals and to execute them well. Over years the #US and its allies fell short on both counts.
2/9: The intervention was legitimate & justified (unlike Iraq). An act of self-defence to halt a clear international terror threat. The first purpose was not to end #Taliban rule, but to deal with a consequence of it. Of course the two rapidly merged.
3/9: Inevitably once we were there new goals were added. Suppressing poppy growing for opium, protecting & supporting #Afghanwomen, nation building, training armed forces. All laudable goals, but where to draw the line & how to define success?
4/9: Despite mission creep the US & allies were never going to provide the resources to stabilize #Afghanistan long term. A vast country of remote regions, armed factions, weak institutions, rampant corruption, in a complex, geopolitically sensitive zone.
5/9: Then in 2003 we went into #Iraq, creating massive overstretch, diverting resources, and undermining legitimacy and credibility.
6/9: #Afghan policy drifted for a decade. As politicians sought a way out, it was increasingly led by an over-promising military, craving success after Iraq & trying to make sense of the casualties.
7/9: The only options were to try to broaden the international presence beyond #NATO or hang on in there and keep the lid on. Neither was viable. Even now there is little criticism in American opinion of the fact of withdrawal, just the cack-handed way it was done,
8/9: Critics probably exaggerate the harm to #America. It’s a bad reverse, not yet a disaster. The damage to Biden’s reputation is more serious. We have a moral duty to deliver far more credible aid & refugee policies for Afghans, & the terror threat will grow again.
9/9: #US has a record of blindsiding its allies. Think Grenada 1983 or Reykjavik 1986. #Afghanistan will boost #EU calls for “strategic autonomy”, though they lack the military resources and political will to make it reality. The UK, however, cannot even aspire..
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