1/12: Will the UK #integratedreview of security & #foreignpolicy really make a difference? It was billed as a radical reset after #Brexit & does contain important innovations. But there are many areas of continuity. A thread, now we’ve had time to digest..
2/12: #GlobalBritain hyperbole was inevitable. A “science superpower”, a “#softpower superpower”, “an independent country free to tread our own path”. But to be fair, beneath the froth lies serious thought to frame international & domestic priorities.
3/12: The #geopolitical analysis is sober. A tougher, more competitive world where China looms large & old certainties no longer apply. Yet the core prescription is familiar. British foreign policy with global reach, defending liberal democratic values, rule of law & trade.
4/12: Also familiar is the emphasis on ties with #US. It’s the right call. Whatever their personal relations, #Biden’s win is a strategic godsend for Johnson. #UK interest is to work fast to buttress positive change in America.
5/12: Other examples of continuity: the prominence of Euro-Atlantic security & UK role in #NATO; the (enhanced) commitment to the UK #nuclear deterrent; and the focus, though dialled down, on #terrorism.
6/12: The #IndoPacific tilt was hyped as a big change, but the text is less dramatic: a post #Brexit turbo charge of a longstanding policy to step up trade & diplomacy in #Asia, now with added focus on security & defence, linked to China.
7/12: On #China the Review tiptoes between a more adversarial posture & continuing engagement. “We will continue to pursue a positive trade & investment relationship while ensuring that our security & values are protected” feels more European than American.
8/12: So what is new? The key word is “integrated”. The Review is a significant step in connecting domestic & international aspects of security, as well as traditional & innovative instruments of foreign policy. A push to join up the baronies of #Whitehall
9/12: The stress on #science & #technology as foundations of both competitiveness & security is positive. Important sections on #cyber, AI & ownership of/access to emerging technologies. This links to the focus on #resilience of infrastructure & supply chains.
10/12: Making #climate change top priority is new but not surprising. It highlights the dual imperatives of international cooperation on global challenges & closer alignment of international & domestic policy. These will be #UK themes in #G7 & #COP26
11/12: The Review’s huge failing is to ignore #EU. It sees Europe through the lenses of #NATO & bilateral relations, dismissing a collective EU relationship. It skates over how, with that mindset, UK will succeed in #trade or influence regulation of new technologies.
12/12: The #integratedreview is the start of a process; stronger on analysis & aspiration than choices & delivery. Resources will be tight after #Covid. We need more detail in promised papers on cyber, AI & national resilience - & serious, integrated follow through.
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1/9: The #UK government will soon publish its #IntegratedReview of defence, security, development & #ForeignPolicy. This is an important inflection point: we need a comprehensive, credible vision of the #GlobalBritain agenda after #Brexit. What to expect?.. a thread..
2/9: The #IntegratedReview will set principles to guide individual policies, advocating agile, global British reach in support of democratic values. Johnson’s strap-line is “#UK as a force for good”. But lofty principles will only be credible if hard, practical choices are made.
3/9: Much will be orthodox: supporting effective #multilateralism, rule of law, open #trade. I expect strong commitment to the #US relationship (whatever some say, #Biden is a godsend for Johnson) & lots about the fashionable but nebulous concept of an “#IndoPacific tilt”.
1/6: Now we have the #Brexit deal we should reboot British #foreignpolicy. It needs both clear long-term priorities and agile tactical footwork. For starters, this thread suggests five early opportunities in 2021, which should also help rebuild key relationships.
2/6: First, consolidate a strong role on #climate leading up to the November #COP26 conference in Glasgow. Show that UK can exercise serious convening power. Work smartly with US, who under Biden & Kerry will want to run the show. Use it to mend fences with #EU & engage #China.
3/6: Second, use #G7 Presidency to link climate agenda to international health policy & sustainable open trade. Boosting collective clinical & economic response to #Covid19. Use leverage of UK financial support for #WHO and expected success of the Oxford vaccine.
1/6: A short #Brexit retrospective as we enter the last month. Four and a half years ago we started down this path with little understanding of the route or the destination, pushed by ideologues who exploited the diverse and often reasonable grievances of many people.
2/6: Over 4 years #Brexit ideologues have driven us inexorably to more extreme forms of separation, losing the good will of European allies, sidelining our globally successful #services industries, bringing cost & uncertainty for manufacturers & farmers, putting #jobs at risk.
3/6: With #Brexit we have created uncertainty for millions of #British and #EU citizens, weakened our #NHS, overlooked the arguments of our scientists, reduced opportunities for our young people and brought the unity of the UK further into question.
1/10: A win for #JoeBiden in the #USElection next week would be good for the overall interests of #UK but problematic for the #BorisJohnson government. How would the arrival of a Biden administration affect British #foreignpolicy? A thread..
2/10: As the song says, it ain’t what you do it’s the way that you do it. Not all #Trump foreign policy was bad (though much was). He made an important call on #China. But he has no idea of the common good, squandered American leadership & damaged alliances & institutions.
3/10: #Biden would be a reversion toward the norm. Unexciting perhaps, but needed & welcome. But he would not mean wholesale change in #US foreign policy. The pressures of #COVID19, political polarisation & economic dislocation remain. As will the tough geopolitical environment.
1/10: So, it’s four years since the #Brexit referendum. We have formally left the #EU but remain in the single market & customs union until 31 December. The future relationship beyond that is still unknown. What are the chances of a deal before the deadline? A thread...
2/10: Negotiators have just 4 months left. It will take two more after that for a deal to be ratified. If there is a deal the scope will be narrow; aiming for tariff-free & quota-free trade in goods. Little on services, never mind non-trade issues. A hard version of #Brexit.
3/10: UK insists a deal must not limit “sovereignty” or leave jurisdiction with the ECJ. It has proposed a series of deals built around a free trade agreement that would involve widespread removal of traditional trade barriers, but far short of the promised “frictionless trade”.
1/11: Before #Covid19 the #geopolitical system was shifting from globalism & multilateralism towards a big power stand-off between #US & #China. The pandemic is accelerating this trend, as all major players struggle to cope. A thread on this, with input from @AlexWhite1812..
2/11: #China, source of the outbreak, has taken a big hit. It suppressed information & numbers. The lockdown apparently worked but was harsh. China is now struggling to reverse a backlash in world opinion through propaganda, exploiting “first recoverer” status & US disarray..
3/11: The early #US federal response was incoherent & failed any test of international leadership. Trump has been awful. But the Fed moved far and fast & some states & cities have done well. Disproportionately high fatalities would damage American prestige...