Thread by @ProfaneBenni

BREAKING: A gloomy, overcast day in #Kiev. #Ukraine's capital stands precariously at the edge of #war. #Russian president Vladimir #Putin declared a military offensive earlier today. There are reports of shelling, air strikes and casualties across Ukraine. A developing 🧵. 1/

Speaking to @SkyNewsBreak, a former Vice PM of #Ukraine warned that Putin won't stop at Kyiv. She reported shelling and bombing in Kyiv, where she resides, and appealed for swift, decisive action from the West. Notably, she mentioned the #SWIFT payments system as a tool. 2/

No one can doubt the resolve of the Ukrainian people in the face of adversity. But their #military is no match for #Russia. So cutting them off from the SWIFT payments settlement system could force the Russians into stepping back. But will the #US and #EU take that step? 3/

The #European Commission conducted a presser and expressed its support to the Ukrainians. Sanctions are being placed. Stricter sanctions are being planned. However, as @Reuters reports, the SWIFT action isn't happening anytime soon. 4/

Why? Because European Union nations source over 40 percent of their gas supplies from Russia. They are pretty much dependent on Russia to get through the winter. This could also explain Putin's choice of timing for raising a ruckus this time around. 5/

The EU nations wouldn't want to be deprived of natural gas from Russia. For they can't come up with an alternative at the drop of a hat. This explains why #Germany has been particularly reluctant in condemning Russia throughout #February. 6/

Not that Russia is any better placed. A majority of its natural gas exports go to Europe. But Russia has recently tried to change that by warming up to #China, its energy hungry neighbour. The Power of Siberia project aims to dramatically increase Russia's gas export to China. 7/

China's been beset by problems of its own and wants to decrease its energy dependence on #Australia, which is closely allied with the #US. So Russia and China have been brought together by mutual suspicion of the West. My enemy's enemy is my friend. 8/

So when a senior Chinese diplomat just announced that it understands Russia's concerns over security issues owing to Ukraine's overtures to #NATO and #EU, it doesn't come as a surprise. Russia and China are in effect teaming up against the US led West. 9/

BREAKING: Russian forces are entering the Kyiv region. So now, if the EU is forced into removing Russia from SWIFT due to their rampage in Ukraine, what can we expect to happen next? Is #Bitcoin an alternative available to Russia for international settlement? 10/

We've seen them move fast on regulating #bitcoin and other #crypto. Could it indeed be used to transact with those countries still willing to buy Russian gas and oil despite the sanctions? Could Russia and China use it between them? Time will tell. 11/

Currently, the focus remains on Ukraine, a sovereign nation ravaged by an invading foreign army. Putin's actions have hurled Europe into chaos. The EU and US are scrambling to put up a united front. Sanctions have been imposed. But the end result is suffering for the masses. 12/

Putin's armies crossed into Ukraine on the pretext of protecting the separatist populations of #Luhansk and #Donetsk. These regions have witnessed bloodshed ever since Russia's annexation of #Crimea in 2014. The Pro Russian people have even been handed out Russian passports. 13/

The leader of the Luhansk region demanded earlier today that Ukrainian soldiers exit his territory. Putin and his military might have his back. This will definitely invite a military response from Ukraine, further fuelling the crisis and risking large scale war. 14/

President #Zelensky has declared martial law in Ukraine. If required, the common people will have to bear arms and fight for the sovereignty of their country. No one should have to live under an atmosphere of such fear and uncertainty. Time for wiser heads to prevail. 15/

UPDATE: #Switzerland goes neutral on #Russia. For now. 16/

https://twitter.com/samramani2/status/1496559219214069760

UPDATE: #Russia and #China hugging each other tighter with the passing day. Russia trying to reduce export dependence on the west.

https://twitter.com/firstsquawk/status/1496831303773085697

#China and #Russia are coming closer. One hopes the military escalation in Europe doesn't give China the confidence to make a move on #Taiwan. This is pure speculation. But could be a likely outcome considering the variables involved. 18/

Naturally, Ukrainians are trying to move towards safe havens. But with the government limiting #bank withdrawals to 100000 #hryvnia, long term sustenance could be impacted. On the extreme end, #Europe may have to prepare for an influx of Ukrainian migrants. 19/

https://twitter.com/coinmamba/status/1496760636772081666

#bitcoin is caught in the whirlwind of opportunistic global geopolitics. #Putin's endorsement will definitely invite criticism from the west. The energy usage #FUD is already resulting in regulation in #Europe. It could be branded as the enemy in this environment. 20/

https://twitter.com/twobitidiot/status/1496838097711026186

But #btc was never going to gain global prominence without dividing potential adopters. Even the #ElSalvador event came with its cohort of detractors. Every revolutionary #technology is used and abused equally, and vulnerable to disparate attacks. 21/

#btc has supporters and detractors in every camp: right, left and centre. This is due to its nature as a store of value and potential #currency. Things that are immensely valuable to individuals and nations. As a rule, people are extremely territorial about their money. 22/

Don't be surprised if the west and the rest are divided on #btc. Especially in this environment, where countries looking to end dollar dominance over their economies cosy up to #crypto. And when some of them are actively militarily aggressive. 23/

#btc is condemned to pendulate btw playing hero and villain for a while. The narrative will take time to settle. This is where institutional adoption will play a key role in legitimising it for those on the fence even as the #UkraineRussiaCrisis paints it a certain way. 24/

Interrupting this to say that if you like what you're reading, please like, share and follow for more threads on a diverse set of topics ranging from #crypto and #geopolitics to #films and #freedom. I promise to write regularly. 25/

BREAKING: Expect #oil and #naturalgas prices to burn pockets worldwide. #Inflation rises. #Markets fall. Central bank, esp the #FederalReserve in a fix. Rate hikes maybe watered down or delayed. Even a return to QE could be on the cards. War is profit under the fiat standard. 26/

https://twitter.com/deitaone/status/1496861117452324864

Pomp is right, to a degree. Gas and oil provide #Russia with leverage, especially where they keep rising indiscriminately. Sanctions will play a role here, however, and #China will likely get a sweet deal on Russia's energy reserves in exchange for their support. 27/

https://twitter.com/APompliano/status/1496853605592272900

#Kyiv is under attack. This a few miles from the city centre. 28/

https://twitter.com/nolanwpeterson/status/1496867212711260162

#Putin holds a meeting with #Russian oligarchs to reassure them about the necessity of this invasion. He says that the nation is financially prepared for this situation. 29/

This is coming in from #Moldova. Expect these numbers to shoot up over the next few days of the conflict. #UkraineRussiaWar

https://twitter.com/sandumaiamd/status/1496859315122147337

Stricter economic sanctions have started. Are we heading towards Russia's removal from #SWIFT? 31/

https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1496893876577218563

Here's the full roster of sanctions planned ot be imposed by the #UK on #Russia.

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1496900219665006594?s=20&t=smvXMwuDq0QSLkyLmz95sQ

It's going to be a long night. #PrayForUkraine 33/

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1496896760257646592?s=20&t=smvXMwuDq0QSLkyLmz95sQ

Hyperdemonization before #hyperbitcoinization. #btc 34/

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1496906501339979784?s=20&t=oU9N8TLeSNQJJ7gKhIvVWA

Unforgivable. #Putin was clearly lying when he said that civilians in #Ukraine will be safe. 35/

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1496854488933715972?s=20&t=KFpXgegPmzt2ouixQBmbHA

Imo, imposing sanctions on #Russia in the energy sector will be the real test for #EU. #Germany, and some other European nations' heavy dependence on Russian energy should will act as a deterrent. @politico reported something along these lines too. 36/

https://twitter.com/antoguerrera/status/1496848585882746881?s=20&t=KFpXgegPmzt2ouixQBmbHA

Anti war protests are sputtering to life in #Russia. But the authorities are swiftly moving in to arrest protesters. Follow Alec's thread for more from #Moscow. #Putin is dead set on strangling all dissenting voices. 37/

https://twitter.com/ASLuhn/status/1496871785568034818

Biden speaks on #Russia's invasion fo Ukraine. #UkraineRussiaConflict

#Biden: Sanctions on #Russia to ensure long term impact on the country... We will limit their ability to do business in #USD, #Yen etc. We are freezing Russian banks' assets. 39/

#Biden: #NATO summit tomorrow to map out next steps for strengthening Nato alliance. 40/

#Biden: Our forces are not going to engage in war in #Ukraine. But we will defend our #NATO allies. 41/

#Biden: We are using all tools possible to keep prices of #oil and #gas in check. We are monitoring energy supplies. 42/

#Biden: We will provide humanitarian relief to #Ukraine. The next few months will be hard on the country. 43/

#Biden: #Putin will be a pariah on the world stage. 44/

#Biden: ##SWIFT sanctions is always an option. But not at the moment. 45/

#Biden: Never underestimated #Putin. 46/

#Biden: I'm confident that our sanctions will be as powerful as #Russian tanks and bombs.
Biden doesn't answer when asked why he's not sanctioned #Putin.
47/

#Biden presser summary: Tough sanctions on Russian banks and individuals. #NATO forces won't get involved in #Ukraine. But will defend any incursion into a NATO member country. #Putin is a pariah. Russia NOT cut off from #SWIFT. 48/

IMO, nothing unexpected from #Biden and the #US. #Russia and #Putin must have prepared for this scenario. #Ukraine's forces appear to be on their own. Barring the foreign aid they receive. Early days of the invasion. 49/

UPDATE: @AlJazeera_World reports that more than 1700 people have been arrested in anti war protests in #Russia. 50/

#UkraineInvasion

Western Intel sources say that #Kyiv could fall within 24 hours. It's notable that #NATO has ruled out intervention in #Ukraine. 51/
#UkraineInvasion

The West has left #Ukraine to defend itself all alone. #Putin assured oligarchs that #Russia has a 600 billion plus chest to tide over western sanctions. 52/ #UkraineInvasion

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1497077886037151761

Bloomberg estimates the economic impact of the #UkraineRussiaConflict
53/

https://twitter.com/economics/status/1497100430882619397?s=20&t=gJyQTr9nvJ-7coLh-cAwPA

#Kyiv last night. 54/

https://twitter.com/Justin_Ling/status/1497041354563764225?s=20&t=1hEzMqJaL6E8ifAXw3OxcQ

55/

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497102315710562324?s=20&t=VVcae6HHC0yJkDnsv0lEfw

No comment. 56/

#Ukraine

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497109297054072833?s=20&t=YPp1CJBVxD57XOAW_xaxhw

#Ukraine understands that they are not a military match for #Russia. So they're using everything they can to defend the country. 57/ #UkraineRussia

https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1497123837850259458

Martin makes a crucial point here. Ordinary #Russians have been ravaged by an authoritarian regime and now the economic implications of #PutinsWar. So many of them are risking a lot by turning up to protest against Putin's aggression. Make no mistake. They are with #Ukraine. 58/

https://twitter.com/koeppelmann/status/1497051396004192258

This is simultaneously saddening and horrifying to read. Ordinary people forced to defend the sovereignty of their country with makeshift firepower in the face of widespread indifference. The world has blood on its hands. 59/
#Ukraine

https://twitter.com/iaponomarenko/status/1497189596869894144

A father says goodbye to his daughter in #Ukraine. Men btw 18 and 60 are forbidden to leave the country.

Let this be a reminder of the human cost of war. These heart wrenching images would have been avoided if diplomacy hadn't failed its stated goal.
Heartbreaking. 60/

https://twitter.com/journoloji/status/1496827450692673537

Support journalists reporting out of #Ukraine by donating in fiat and #crypto. 61/

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1497269768943984641

#btc #eth #crypto is a hedge against state sponsored violence. 62/

https://twitter.com/usleepwalker/status/1497255981851496449