Seshadri Kumar Profile picture
Jun 18 11 tweets 7 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Judging from various reports, the #ukrainecounteroffensive seems to be a complete disaster, even though this is officially denied by the Western side.

But this analysis by Col. Richard Kemp of the #British military shows no expectations of success.

Col. Kemp uses cautious language, but it is easy to read between the lines. Being a retired Western Colonel, you don't expect him to come out and say openly that #Ukraine️ is going to lose. But that is exactly what he is saying.

Let me explain why the conclusion is clear.

His main points:

1. Surprise is essential for success.

But of course, there is no surprise here. The whole world has been expecting this operation for months. There are no unexpected lines of attack like #Incheon in the #KoreanWar in 1950.

2. #Russia has had a long time to prepare for this attack, and has prepared layered defenses in depth.

"#Russia's General Valery #Gerasimov has had a lot of time and resources to prepare effective defences in multiple lines."

Ukraine's current situation actually brings to mind a famous battle that happened in this same region, 80 years ago. The #BattleOfKursk.

Just like the #Soviets knew then that Germany had only one possible attack, the #Russians today know exactly what Ukraine's options are.

And the #Russians are ready for it.

In 1943, #Germany knew their chances were not very good, but they attacked for political reasons, and lost.

Similarly, #Zelensky knows his chances are poor, but the #counteroffensive must happen, otherwise #Western support will dry up.

3. "The #Russians also have numerical superiority in pretty much everything, from men and tanks to, perhaps most critically, artillery."

Nothing needs to be added to this. If #Ukraine️ wants to win against such odds, they need a miracle. This is reality, not the #Bible.

4. "Then there is air power. Almost every attacking force from the Second World War onwards has succeeded only with air superiority or supremacy. This the Ukrainians do not have, and we have already seen ... Bradley fighting vehicles and German Leopard 2 tanks picked off.."

" attack helicopters."

After giving the reader enough reasons to conclude that Ukraine is definitely going to suffer a catastrophic defeat, Col. #RichardKemp then tries to satisfy his Western audience by saying, "So this counter offensive could go either way."


Obviously, the #Telegraph would not accept someone openly saying that Ukraine would lose, so Col. Kemp had to give this weak disclaimer.

But he is right on one thing: his concluding line: "what is the point of #NATO?

None whatsoever. Should have been disbanded in 1991.


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More from @KumarSeshadri

Jun 19
This is why I do not think much of #SubhasChandraBose

Read this thread about the brutal treatment of #Malaya #Tamils by the Japanese in building the #DeathRailway

Bose wanted to take help from the Japanese in "liberating" #India.

Why would the Japanese ever care about "liberating" India from #British rule?

The #Japanese were imperialists. They wanted to conquer all of Asia and the Pacific.

They had already annexed #Manchuria in 1931, and everyone knew about their brutal treatment of the #Chinese.

The Japanese followed this up with the #RapeOfNanjing in 1937. This was followed by the establishment of #Unit731 in the city of #Harbin in Northeast #China, scene of one of the most egregious #CrimesAgainstHumanity in history, carried out by the #ImperialJapaneseArmy

Read 12 tweets
Jun 14
L'affaire #Dorsey

There's been a minor kerfuffle in India for the last two days since the Twitter ex-CEO, Jack Dorsey, @jack, made some statements about freedom of speech in India under #Modi.

A 🧵

#Liberals are gleefully sharing these comments as evidence of #India not being a democratic country, and defenders of the government are going into attack dog mode, as usual.

But many people on both sides are missing some key things here:

1. Dorsey didn't talk only about India. In fact, he also talked about how the #USA government tried to suppress things. As also #Turkey, #Nigeria.

2. This points to a deeper issue underlying the whole controversy: Is #FreedomOfSpeech absolute?

Read 18 tweets
Jun 13
Here's a proposal to solve the serious social and political problems in the #USA: #Partition.

Let's just use the 2020 Presidential Election Results as a basis.

Split the US to create two new countries, one for Blue America and one for Red America.

(1/) Image
The red states can be called URSA, or United Republican States of America, and the blue states can be called United States of Democratic America (USDA).

In blue states (USDA), #abortion would be a fundamental right; in red states (URSA), it would be illegal.

#Evolution would be taught in USDA, #Creationism in URSA.

#Opencarry guns would be a fundamental right in URSA; the #SecondAmendment would be abolished in USDA; no private guns.

In URSA, there would be a flat tax rate of 10%.

In USDA, the #top1percent would pay 99% tax.

Read 15 tweets
Jun 1
This is from the list of "rationalized content" - i.e., stuff that will be dropped - from the syllabus of class X, from the website of the National Council for Educational Research and Training (NCERT) in India.…

(1/) Image
The rationale for the "rationalisation" of content is that the same subjects are covered in a higher class.

So evolution is covered in XII standard biology, and the periodic table in XII standard chemistry. So why teach it in Xth?

(2/) Image
The problem with this logic is that, in India, students opt for different "streams" after the Xth standard (class X) board exam.

Some opt for science, some for commerce, some for arts.

Non-science stream students will NEVER encounter evolution or the periodic table again.
Read 18 tweets
May 30
Why #JoeBiden Will Get the #NobelPeacePrize - a thread 🧵

The #UkraineWar might be a blessing for the world in disguise by bringing about lasting world peace.

And, for this, we will have to thank the @POTUS

How? Because, no matter what the cost, Western countries are determined to supply more and more weapons and ammunition to Ukraine to fight #Russia.

#Biden has said that #American support for #Ukraine will continue "as long as it takes."

#Russia has been steadily destroying all this ammunition and these weapons, so much so that it is already summer (beginning of June) and the "spring #counteroffensive" of #Ukraine hasn't yet started, because they have no weapons to start any offensive.

Read 8 tweets
May 29
#Erdogan has won the elections in #Turkey.

#Indian #liberals are dismayed because Erdogan is trying to #Islamize Turkey.

But this is a decision of the people of Turkey.

Erdogan has won through a democratic, free and fair election.

This is what the people of Turkey want.

If you claim to love #Democracy, that is, the will of the people, then you should be happy with this result.

Erdogan is a #Democrat. He is not #Liberal. He converted the #HagiaSophia into a mosque.

But #Democracy has NOTHING TO DO with #Liberalism, and vice versa.

#Ataturk was a #Liberal in every sense of the word. He abolished the #Caliphate, closed down #Madarsa s, changed the language of the country from #Arabic to #Turkish, banned the #Fez cap, banned the #Sufi and #Dervish orders, and promoted scientific thinking.

Read 8 tweets

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