Thread by @KumarSeshadri

Judging from various reports, the #ukrainecounteroffensive seems to be a complete disaster, even though this is officially denied by the Western side.

But this analysis by Col. Richard Kemp of the #British military shows no expectations of success.

(1/)

news.yahoo.com/prepare-ukrain…

Col. Kemp uses cautious language, but it is easy to read between the lines. Being a retired Western Colonel, you don't expect him to come out and say openly that #Ukraine️ is going to lose. But that is exactly what he is saying.

Let me explain why the conclusion is clear.

(2/)

His main points:

1. Surprise is essential for success.

But of course, there is no surprise here. The whole world has been expecting this operation for months. There are no unexpected lines of attack like #Incheon in the #KoreanWar in 1950.

(3/)

2. #Russia has had a long time to prepare for this attack, and has prepared layered defenses in depth.

"#Russia's General Valery #Gerasimov has had a lot of time and resources to prepare effective defences in multiple lines."

(4/)

Ukraine's current situation actually brings to mind a famous battle that happened in this same region, 80 years ago. The #BattleOfKursk.

Just like the #Soviets knew then that Germany had only one possible attack, the #Russians today know exactly what Ukraine's options are.

(5/)

And the #Russians are ready for it.

In 1943, #Germany knew their chances were not very good, but they attacked for political reasons, and lost.

Similarly, #Zelensky knows his chances are poor, but the #counteroffensive must happen, otherwise #Western support will dry up.

(6/)

3. "The #Russians also have numerical superiority in pretty much everything, from men and tanks to, perhaps most critically, artillery."

Nothing needs to be added to this. If #Ukraine️ wants to win against such odds, they need a miracle. This is reality, not the #Bible.

(7/)

4. "Then there is air power. Almost every attacking force from the Second World War onwards has succeeded only with air superiority or supremacy. This the Ukrainians do not have, and we have already seen ... Bradley fighting vehicles and German Leopard 2 tanks picked off.."

(8/)

"...by attack helicopters."

After giving the reader enough reasons to conclude that Ukraine is definitely going to suffer a catastrophic defeat, Col. #RichardKemp then tries to satisfy his Western audience by saying, "So this counter offensive could go either way."

Huh???

(9/)

Obviously, the #Telegraph would not accept someone openly saying that Ukraine would lose, so Col. Kemp had to give this weak disclaimer.

But he is right on one thing: his concluding line: "what is the point of #NATO?

None whatsoever. Should have been disbanded in 1991.

(10/10)

@threadreaderapp unroll