Thread by @ASlavitt

BREAKING THIS AM: Collins says won’t declare on tax bill until final conference.

Will tweet on ways this can fail. Follow if interested.

If you want 2 defeat the tax bill, you must start w the fact that EVERY R WANTS it to pass. To vote no they need a very specific reason.2/

There are plenty of reasons to vote no, but they must be stronger than all the pressure to get this done... 3/

An important message for Rs is not this tax bill or nothing.

A tax bill that helps the economy, cuts loopholes, helps the middle class immediately & is budget neutral can pass on a bipartisan basis.4/

The conference agreement will have difficult things for many to swallow. Smart to press members now to commit on these issues.5/

Factor 1: Push selected House Rs. This is a terrible bill to vote for from PA, NY, NJ & CA because of the lost/diminished SALT deduction. 6/

Conference will claim they "sweetened SALT" but the temptation to punish blue states is too strong.

These reps need to see their political future flash before their eyes in the local press. These are purple districts.7/

Factor 2: Collins is out on a limb that her amendments are included in the final deal. Not just the Medicare pay-go but her 2 amendments.👇8/

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If Collins gets her amendments she's a likely yes. She must be pressed that if she doesn't, she votes no.

Very doubtful she gets them. The commitment was not real & the House strongly dislikes them. 9/

Presuming Corker stays a no, the bill would be one vote from failing. It's very difficult to be the third no vote, but it has happened before w ACA.

There are at least 2 viable scenarios.10/