Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #b1617

Most recents (24)

⚠️Record pediatric hospitalization trajectory—surpassing winter pandemic peak. And this is August, historically the lowest season for pediatric hospitalizations. #DeltaVariant surge will worsen for kids.🧵

HT @jeremyfaust @bhrenton @kmpanthagani #COVID19
2) “Perhaps more alarming than the daily hospitalizations is the magnitude of the rise in recent weeks. Obviously we cannot predict whether this worrisome trend in pediatric hospitalizations will continue... But we must not ignore it.” says @jeremyfaust insidemedicine.bulletin.com/23706803963971…
3) This is also why teachers around the country and the world are worried about return to school when kids under 12 aren’t vaccinated and many places don’t have mask mandates.
Read 14 tweets
Epidemiatilanteen kiinnostavan kehityksen takia raportoin myös juhannusta edeltävän tilanteen HUS-alueelta. Viikon 21.-24.6. arkipäivinä HUS Diagnostiikkakeskus tuotti 21228 koronavirusanalyysia, joista 12045 HUS-alueelle. Niistä 121 eli 1,0 % oli positiivisia #covid19 #HUS
Rajavalvontatestejä 21.-24.6. tuotettiin 7170 kpl, joista 119 eli 1,7 % oli positiivisia #covid19 #matkailu #testaaminen
Itärajan raja-asemista Vaalimaalla rajanylittäjiä oli n. 3000 ja Nuijamaalla alle 800 eli viranomaisten toivetta jakaa Pietarin jalkapallomatkojen paluuliikenne tasaisesti eri raja-asemille ei noudatettu. Vaalimaalla näytteitä otettiin n. 900 #covid19 #UEFA2020 @Pohjoiskaarre
Read 9 tweets
Really good thread about the #Delta variant (#B1617) which has become the dominant variant in the UK.👇

There are some informative short videos as well for people like myself who are not science experts, but like to have a base level of understanding.
#COVID19 #ableg #abhealth
How is #Alberta handling the #DeltaVariant?

“The Foothills Medical Centre in Calgary is dealing with several COVID-19 outbreaks, including 20 cases of the rapidly spreading delta variant, or B.1.617.2, in two units.”

#abhealth #covid19ab #ableg

cbc.ca/news/canada/ca…
A more infectious, more aggressive new strain taking hold in Alberta is a concern.

“but @calgarystampede will go ahead with #stampede2021🦠” (come hell or high fever.)

globalnews.ca/news/7939152/c…
Read 18 tweets
Zusammenfassung, was man aktuell über die (in Indien als #B1617.2 beschriebene) #Delta-Variante wissen sollte:

Delta ist wohl nochmals deutlich ansteckender als Alpha (#B117) und führt dadurch in manchen Regionen (Indien, UK) zur starken Ausbreitung. Neue Daten…

🧵 1/n
… aus UK zeigen eine >50% höhere „sek. Angriffsrate“. Das heisst, wenn ein mit dem „ursprünglichen Virus“ Infizierter von 100 Kontaktpersonen 10 ansteckte, steckt ein Alpha Infizierter 15 an und jemand mit Delta bereits 23!

2/n
Das Virus hat seine Infektiosität und damit seinen R-Wert also mittlerweile um mehr als das 2-fache gesteigert! Siehe auch „Der Kampf um R“ ⬇️. Wenn bestimmte Umstände zusammenkommen (wieder mehr Kontakte, weil niedrige Gesamt-Inzidenz;…

3/
Read 18 tweets
📍Delta variant #B16172:

50-70% more transmissible

2.7x more likely to be hospitalized than #B117

“Many people could end up in hospital, 🇬🇧 NHS could be thrown into another surge.”

Says @globalhlthtwit of @IndependentSage. #COVID19 #DeltaVariant
2) Latest UK @PHE_uk assessment on #DeltaVariant #B16172:

📌Severity is now RED (previously insufficient info)

📌Vaccines is now RED with high confidence (previously moderate) Image
3) Two separate studies on hospitalization severity—one from England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 and one from Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿— both found Increased severity of #DeltaVariant #B16172

➡️ Risk of hospital admission (Hazard Ratio = 2.61 in England and HR = 2.39 in Scotland) compared to the Kent variant #B117! Image
Read 12 tweets
Logik: Die indische Mutante #Delta (#B16172) breitet sich massiv in #England aus und da sollte man erwarten, dass das #RKI sofort die unzureichende #Einreisequarantäne verbessert - aber nein - das RKI stuft die #COVID-Gefahrenlage für Deutschland herunter
Hallo Dr. #KaiSchulze, ist für das @rki_de der Ausbruch der indischen Mutante #B16172 in #England isoliert? Kann #Delta nicht durch die löchrige #Einreisequarantäne nach DE eingeschleppt werden? Wie kann man jetzt die COVID-#Risikobewertung herabstufen?
Strategie #Herdenimmunität
Todesfälle wurden offenbar einkalkuliert. #Brasilien sollte durch natürliche Infektionen zur Herdenimmunität geführt werde. Das bedeutet mit 1% IFR, 70% Herdenschwelle >1,4 Millionen einkalkulierte Todesfälle #Bolsonaro #COVIDZID nytimes.com/2021/05/27/opi…
Read 31 tweets
#CoronavirusUpdate 2021/6/1🇫🇷仏AFPが新型コロナ変異株のファクトファイルを公開。これまでの変異株をWHO指定の呼称「アルファ」「ベータ」「ガンマ」…で表記。興味深いことに #B16171 「カパ」についてはそこから派生した #B16172 を「デルタ」と表記。これではすぐに24字を使い果たしそうだ。
AFPはWHOが「懸念される変異株」(VOC)としてαアルファ・βベータ・γガンマ・δデルタ型とした4株のうち最初の3つと4つ目の「デルタ」を明確に区別。 α型 #B117 β型 #B1351 γ型 #P1 ら3変異株はいずれも #N501Y レセプターに変異がある型で、β型、γ型は #E484K #K417N レセプターに変異がある型と。 Image
一方、δデルタ型 #B16172 変異株は #E484Q #L452R レセプターに変異がみられる型であり、なぜかκカッパ型が #B16171 を指すようだが、このインフォグラフィックを正しく読めているのならば、 これら2種のレセプターに変異がみられる型が3系統存在する。

変異株の“進化“は止まることを知らない。 Image
Read 8 tweets
(1/n) #B1617 #variants (dropping the dots for the hashtag) "... the B.1.617.2 variant has mutations called 452R and 478K, which Tang says are both linked to increased transmissibility. Both mutations alter the spike protein...."
nature.com/articles/d4158…
(2/n) [L]452R is believed to result in the spike binding more closely to the ACE2 receptor and may simultaneously result in a degree of Immune escape. From analysis of B.1.429 which has the same mutation...
(3/n) "This replacement is predicted to create a much stronger attachment of the virus to the human cells and also might allow it to avoid the neutralizing antibodies that try to interfere with this attachment." (2021 Feb 26)

newsroom.uw.edu/news/single-mu…
Read 21 tweets
Neu mit @queLindaFi für @zeitonline: Ein Update zur indischen Variante #B1617. Es ist ziemlich kompliziert, das Unwissen weiter groß und die Konsequenzen relativ unklar. Ich versuche mal, euch durchzuführen. 🧵
zeit.de/wissen/2021-05…
Zwei Dinge vorab:
1. Wir blicken hier nur auf die Situation in Europa. In Indien hat die Variante zu einer katastrophalen Welle beigetragen, die zum Glück gerade abklingt.
2. Es gibt inzwischen drei Unter-Varianten. Wir konzentrieren uns auf B.1.617.2, die in Europa dominiert.
In Deutschland macht #B1617 zuletzt (KW18) zwei Prozent aller Fälle aus. Das ist sehr wenig, allerdings gibt es eine Dynamik: In KW17 waren es nur 1,2%.
Read 17 tweets
1/5 Aber der Sommer?

In Großbritannien sehen wir derzeit beunruhigende Signale. Während die

1. Maßnahmen zur Eindämmung stabil bleiben
2. der Frühling in den Sommer übergeht
3. immer mehr geimpft sind

steigt der R-Wert trotzdem wieder an und liegt nahe 1. Der Grund: #B1617
2/5 Der Grund: Während #B117 mit dem Maßnahmenpaket erfolgreich im Zaum gehalten wird, verbreitet sich #B1617 (Die indische Mutation) rapide aus. Der R-Wert der Mutation liegt sicher weit über 1.

3/5 .
Gut:
Geimpfte sind trotzdem ordentlich geschützt.

Schlecht:
1. Der vollständige Schutz entsteht erst Wochen später
2. Die Impfung schützt nicht vollständig vor Weitergabe des Virus
3. Wir haben im September immer noch 30 Millionen Ungeimpfte. \...
Read 10 tweets
Pediatric warning from Singapore health minister on the new #B1617 variant, first detected in India 🇮🇳, that it appears to affect children more, says 🇸🇬 Health Minister— this is why schools are taking a more cautious approach they say. #COVID19

2) “Education Minister Chan Chun Sing said in a press conference (May 16): “We know that there are many new strains of the Covid-19–there are various new mutations and some of these mutations are much more virulent and they seem to attack younger children.
todayonline.com/singapore/new-…
3) “So it is an area of concern for us, and the way we manage the situation must (be to) constantly keep abreast of such developments and pre-empt them where possible.”
Read 15 tweets
#B1617 ARRIVAL—we just now learn that the #B1617 Indian variants first arrived in NYC in April 5-11th, but retroactively reported now. It has grown in NYC, just as #P1 from Brazil 🇧🇷 also increases in %.

HT to shrewd eyes @perdidostschool @maslowsneeds
www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid…
2) there is a ton of concern about the specific #B16172 sub lineage of #B1617, because it is even faster transmission than the already faster #B117. This was a warning this week from the U.K. 🇬🇧 govt report.
3) To be clear, if that is true, it could mean #B16172 is one of the fastest if not fastest variants identified to date… 2.4x faster than original.
Read 4 tweets
1/9 - “Public health officials in the UK are “anxious” about the swelling clusters of the variants, known as #B1617, and have announced that surge testing and enhanced contact tracing will be rolled out in hotspots where the variant had been found.”
ft.com/content/eb158a…
2/9 - “Although the UK plans to lift all coronavirus restrictions on June 21 — the next stage of lockdown easing comes on Monday with the reopening of indoor hospitality and other relaxations — the UK’s vaccine rollout may now be adapted to try and address the spike in cases.”
3/9 - “Health officials race to adapt their plans to contain the spread of the variants. Scientists and experts in the genetic make-up of viruses are still trying to puzzle through very limited data on the characteristics of the main strain that is causing concern — B.1.617.2.”
Read 9 tweets
ONLY VACCINES?—What if we dropped all masks/mitigation, and only rely on vaccines? Well, with 70% fully vaccinated, even if vaccines have 97% efficacy against all transmission (they don’t)—we can only stop Wuhan 1.0 slower strain. Forget #B117/#P1/#B1617.🧵

(HT @GosiaGasperoPhD)
2) However, the math to stop #COVID19 completely changes if we add masks and other public health motivations. Even with lower transmission efficacy vaccines, even with more faster contagious variants—when combined together, vaccines + masks + mitigation can hold back surge!
3) the main leakage with the vaccine only approach is that asymptomatics keep spreading even if vaccines work for severe #COVID19 disease. And it will leak to the vulnerable.
Read 4 tweets
This 👇🏼 #Singapore seeing new large #COVID19 clusters, including #B1617 Changi Airport, Tan Tock Seng hospital. Shows a) #VOC import risk, b) better cluster tracking with low case numbers, c) now is not the time to relax measures 🇨🇭 (1/n) straitstimes.com/singapore/heal…
Excellent thread from @trvrb on growth of nee #VOCs with added analyses from @TWenseleers
Response to #B1617 #SARSCoV2 In #Singapore govt 3-phase model has just reduced group sizes from 5 to 2 and stopped indoor dining. #Switzerland, with >1000 cases daily planning large relaxation 🙈 #PrecautionaryPrinciple please channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore…
Read 4 tweets
📍My god… the upgraded warning #B16172 variant (magenta) is surging so fast. Epidemiologists now estimate it is 60% faster than even #B117 UK/Kent variant, which is already 50% faster. If true, it could make it fastest transmission one to be found worldwide. Thread 🧵. #COVID19 Image
2) #B1672 has become quite dominant in India 🇮🇳 sequenced samples in @GISAID data. And it is projected to take over further by June. Figure from @TWenseleers.

Some say it could be due to sampling, but Tom doesn’t think so because #B16171 wouldn’t be selectively withheld. Image
3) @TWenseleers used his methods from earlier paper to estimate the new #B16172 transmission being 60% fast than the U.K. Kent #B117 variant.
Read 14 tweets
#B16171 variant is 6.8-fold less susceptible to neutralization by sera from infection & vaccinated (Pfizer & Moderna) subjects. Despite this, most of the sera from convalescents (79%) & all from vaccinated subjects were still able to neutralize the variant biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
#Covaxin retains efficacy against #B1617: Only minimal reductions in the neutralization observed against B1617; Neutralization reduction by a factor of 1.95 & 1.8 was observed against the B1617 variant for B1 (D614G) & B117 variant, respectively. biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
#B16171 variant is highly pathogenic in hamsters than B1 (D614G) variant! B1617 demonstrates higher pathogenicity evident with reduced body weight, higher viral load in lungs & pronounced lung lesions as compared to B1 biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
Read 4 tweets
⚠️“dramatic rise in UK cases of a variant first discovered in India could undermine roadmap for reopening”, scientists caution. One of 3 key 🇮🇳variants, #B161712, now surged to 6% of all variants in UK, WHO & England both upgraded to “variant of concern”.🧵theguardian.com/world/2021/may…
2) Prof @chrischirp, of University College London and member of @IndependentSage experts, speaking in a personal capacity said rise in B.1.617.2 cases was concerning enough to delay the next stage of the roadmap scheduled for Monday, when a range of restrictions are to be lifted.
3) “the second most common variant in the UK. Wellcome Sanger Institute’s Covid-19 genomic surveillance data – **which excludes recent travellers and surge testing specimens** – suggests about 6.1% of Covid genomes in England sequenced in the 4 weeks to 24 April are B.1.617.2.
Read 15 tweets
Worrisome cluster at Singapore 🇸🇬 @ChangiAirport of many #B1617 Indian variant (+pending). 92% of aviation staff vaccinated—of primary cases: 11 breakthroughs in vaccinated airport staff, 3 in unvaccinated staff, 4 non-airport staff unvaccinated. #MaskUp🧵
channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore…
2) The Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore (CAAS) and Changi Airport Group (CAG) said on Sunday that all workers in Changi Airport’s operating terminals will be tested for COVID-19 in a special testing operation.
3) About 9,000 workers from Terminal 1, Terminal 3 and Jewel Changi Airport will undergo these tests. Terminal 2 is not open.
All vaccinated frontline airport workers will also be tested every 14 days as part of rostered routine testing, up from the 28 days previously.
Read 8 tweets
🧵Importante: la #variante #B1617 encontrada en #India es declarada variante de preocupación #voc por la @opsoms xke las mutaciones que porta sugieren que es más transmisible pero no hay datos sobre diagnósticos o eficiencia de #vacunas en este marco. Ahora, ¿qué es B1617?
La #variante #B1617 se le llama doble mutante xke porta 2 #mutaciones en la proteína espícula #E484Q y #L452R Estas 2 mutaciones están asociadas con más transmisibilidad dl #virus pero siempre se habían visto separadamente en distintas variantes. En B1617 se detectaron juntas
Fue detectada el pasado 5 de Octubre de 2020 en estado de Maharashtra en un 15 a 20% de casos y hoy ya forma el 60% aprox de casos en gran parte dl país. Además ha sido detectada en 21+ países. Su detección está asociada a las capacidades de #vigilanciagenomica del país!!
Read 4 tweets
📍UPGRADED WARNING—@WHO has finally upgraded the warning on contagious #B1617 variant spreading in India as a "variant of concern" at the global level. Prelim studies show it can spread more easily. (WHO has asked for “vaccine escape” be retracted by CNBC)
globalnews.ca/news/7848493/v…
2) the India #B1617 variant is also growing fast in the UK. Extremely fast.
3) There is some preprint evidence of “reduced neutralization” by #B1617, says @mvankerkhove. But she emphasizes it is not “vaccine escape” (CNBC has been asked by WHO to retract)
Read 3 tweets
Have we reached to the peak of 2nd #Covid wave in India? May be, yes! Its already 2.5 months in to it. Most badly affected countries peaked within 1.5-3 months of onset of a new surge. Is it too early to comment? 1/
More interesting would be to see which way our curve goes: the UK/Israel or the US way! While both UK/Israel took 1.5-2 months to flatten their curves w/ strict lockdowns & aggressive vaccination, US had a long plateau (>3.5 months) 2/
However, there is heterogeneity in caseloads: While states like MH, UP, CG, PB, DL are showing ⬇️ in case load, some southern & eastern states (KA, KL, AP, TN, WB, ) still reporting cases in high numbers! What is driving Covid in these states? 3/ indiatoday.in/coronavirus-ou…
Read 9 tweets
Besorgniserregende Daten aus England.
Der Anteil der indischen Variante B.1.617 an der Stichprobe hat sich innerhalb einer Woche erneut verdoppelt auf 2,4%.
Reisende und regionale Ausbruchsuntersuchungen sind explizit ausgeschlossen.
Auch absolut steigen die #B1617-Zahlen. Image
Ja, England hat sehr viele Reiseverbindungen nach Indien und 2,4% entspricht bei mittlerweile geringer Inzidenz von 40 nur 1/100k.
Aber 10 Verdopplungen und wir sind wieder bei 1000.
Die Impfungen werden wohl ausreichen, aber wir müssen aufpassen.
Website: covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw Image
P.1 verbreitet sich in den USA in allen Staaten schneller als B.1.1.7
Also eine weitere Variante die wir weiterhin im Auge haben müssen.
Die USA sind ebenfalls relativ weit durchgeimpft. England und USA sind also erste Länder wo wir Escape-Effekt erwarten.
Read 4 tweets
Lineages with #N440K are NOT the dominant ones in the second wave of #Covid19inIndia. While N440K was a indeed mutation of concern in South India during and after the first wave, current data shows that it is essentially replaced by new VoCs such as #B1617 and #B117
When comparing the data from MH, in MH we can see that the increase in B.1.617 is seen in Feb rather than Mar 2021, and again we observe a reduction in proportion of lineages with N440K.
This coincides well with the second waves seen in the respective states. In MH, the second wave started almost a month and half earlier compared to the 4 southern states, along with the explosion of B.1.617 at the expense of lineages with the mutation N440K.
Read 5 tweets

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