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2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
Methodology:
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes its final major filing binge before next week's election, dropping $29.4 million in 41 races.
Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace.
Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace.
And here's the climactic burst of spending from the Democratic House Majority PAC, putting up...
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
The @NRCC is out with what's likely it's final major buy ahead of the election, dropping $19.5 million in 29 House races and finally pulling ahead of their 2020 pace, logging $84.4 million in general election IEs.
The DCCC is out with what is likely its final major buy before the election, dropping $8 million in 23 House races and adding the Biden +15% #NY04 to the board as targeted seat number 67.
(This is also the first direct independent expenditure spending by the DCCC to defend DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney in #NY17).
Every state has critical races on the ballot — & some are facing a perfect storm where so much is on the line at once.
So I'm starting this ongoing thread of all states, to encapsulate as many stakes as I can for a state within 280 characters. As I did in 2020. Let’s go! 🧵
So I'm starting this ongoing thread of all states, to encapsulate as many stakes as I can for a state within 280 characters. As I did in 2020. Let’s go! 🧵
1️⃣ I have to start with Michigan
—Ballot measure to overturn abortion ban
—Another to protect elections system
—Supreme court may flip
—Election denier up for SoS
—Governorship, AG, trifecta all at stake
—Can Dems flip state Sen. for 1st time in decades?
—Central for U.S. House
—Ballot measure to overturn abortion ban
—Another to protect elections system
—Supreme court may flip
—Election denier up for SoS
—Governorship, AG, trifecta all at stake
—Can Dems flip state Sen. for 1st time in decades?
—Central for U.S. House
2️⃣ Arizona:
—May decide U.S. Senate
—Key House races
—Election deniers up for Gov, AG, SoS
—Measures to weaken ballot initiatives, tighten voter ID
—Measure on tuition for immigrants
—Prosecutor of nation's 4th biggest county
—PSC flips?
—Horne's comeback?
—🎇for school boards
—May decide U.S. Senate
—Key House races
—Election deniers up for Gov, AG, SoS
—Measures to weaken ballot initiatives, tighten voter ID
—Measure on tuition for immigrants
—Prosecutor of nation's 4th biggest county
—PSC flips?
—Horne's comeback?
—🎇for school boards
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes tonight's filing dump, dropping $24.9 million in 39 races, bringing its general election IE spending to $175,411,754, more than the $173,430,579 spent by the Democratic House Majority PAC and the DCCC combined.
Whoa...House Majority PAC off the top rope with $30 million distributed across 45 races.
*strike that, 47 races. The largest buy goes to the Biden +12% #NJ05, making its debut on the chart as targeted seat #65.
There's the spending boom I was waiting for...the NRCC drops $19.27 million on 31 House races, pulling ahead of its 2020 pace and adding the Biden +20% #PA12 to the board as targeted seat #64, backing Mike Doyle for retiring 14-term Dem Mike Doyle's seat.
The Democratic House Majority PAC goes up with $17.47 million in ads across 40 districts, including the first spending by any of the big four committees in Josh Harder's #CA09, bringing the number of targeted House seats to an even 60.
The @NRCC finally starts to unload its war chest in earnest, dropping $14 million in 23 races.
It has now spent ~$43.9 million in 28 races (vs the DCCC's $76.7 million in 42 races)
It has now spent ~$43.9 million in 28 races (vs the DCCC's $76.7 million in 42 races)
Friday night's filing dump from the GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes after a $23.15 million torrent of spending spread across 43 targeted House races.
CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
Congressional Leadership Fund continues to run well ahead of their pace from past cycles and is running laps around the Democratic House Majority PAC, outspending their counterpart $120.9M to $40.7M.
The Democratic House Majority PAC's weekly independent expenditure dump adds another $9.08 million in 34 House races.
HMP has now spent $39.6 million in 42 targeted races.
HMP has now spent $39.6 million in 42 targeted races.
The House GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund SuperPAC wraps up its Friday spending dump, finishing up at $22 million deployed across 42 House races.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
32 days out, @CLFSuperPAC's general election spending is running ~$60 million ahead of their breakneck 2020 pace.
A pair of major filings from the @dccc and @NRCC within seconds of one another...the DCCC dropping $16.8 million in 33 races and the NRCC still holding back and deploying $5.59M in 9 races.
The DCCC's general election IE total is at $46.4M vs $19.5M for the NRCC.
The DCCC's general election IE total is at $46.4M vs $19.5M for the NRCC.
#AZ06: Juan Ciscomani takes 48-20 lead with 53% of estimated GOP vote in. For Dems, former state Sen. Kirsten Engel leads state Rep. Daniel Hernandez 61-34 with 65% of estimated vote in. Biden would have won new seat just 49.3-49.2
57% of estimated vote in for #WA03 top-two. Dem Marie Perez at 32%, pro-impeachment Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler leads Trump-backed Joe Kent 25-20.
Over in #WA04 top-two, pro-impeachment Rep. Dan Newhouse at 27. Dem Doug White leads Trump's guy, Loren Culp 26-22 for second.
Congresswoman Carolyn Bourdeaux flipped #GA07 blue & helped put Georgia in the Dem column for the 1st time since 1992.
@Carolyn4GA7 uses her experience helping to rebuild GA’s economy in the Great Recession to tackle kitchen table issues for working families. #WomensHistoryMonth
@Carolyn4GA7 uses her experience helping to rebuild GA’s economy in the Great Recession to tackle kitchen table issues for working families. #WomensHistoryMonth
Congresswoman Teresa Leger Fernandez fought for decades for equity & investment in the health & economic security of Latino & tribal communities.
@TeresaForNM’s expertise is vital as the House tackles a pandemic w/ disparate impact on these communities. #NM03 #WomensHistoryMonth
@TeresaForNM’s expertise is vital as the House tackles a pandemic w/ disparate impact on these communities. #NM03 #WomensHistoryMonth
Congresswoman Marie Newman’s fight for #Equality4All was a national model years before she came to DC.
@Marie4Congress also works for health care, gun sense, and curbing economic inequality with workforce & infrastructure investment for a green economy. #IL03 #WomensHistoryMonth
@Marie4Congress also works for health care, gun sense, and curbing economic inequality with workforce & infrastructure investment for a green economy. #IL03 #WomensHistoryMonth
#116th New Congress convenes soon!
43 HOUSE SEATS FLIPPED BLUE! 🌊🌊🌊 #BlueWave2018
(*Net of 40) 64 New Democratic Members in the HOUSE!
with @TeamPelosi leading the way
What do they stand for?
⤵️THREAD of ALL New Blue Congressfolk⤵️
w/ graphic, campaign website links & Twitter
43 HOUSE SEATS FLIPPED BLUE! 🌊🌊🌊 #BlueWave2018
(*Net of 40) 64 New Democratic Members in the HOUSE!
with @TeamPelosi leading the way
What do they stand for?
⤵️THREAD of ALL New Blue Congressfolk⤵️
w/ graphic, campaign website links & Twitter
Arizona #AZ02 #116thCongress
Representative Ann Kirkpatrick
kirkpatrickforcongress.com/issues/
@Ann_Kirkpatrick
"Proud lifelong Arizonan, former prosecutor & congresswoman, independent voice for working Arizona families."
THREAD
Representative Ann Kirkpatrick
kirkpatrickforcongress.com/issues/
@Ann_Kirkpatrick
"Proud lifelong Arizonan, former prosecutor & congresswoman, independent voice for working Arizona families."
THREAD
Arizona #AZ09 #AZ9 #116thCongress
Representative Greg Stanton
Former Phoenix Mayor, Former Phoenix City Councilman & Attorney
stantonforarizona.com/issues
@gregstantonaz
Instagram.com/gregstantonaz
facebook.com/gregstantonaz
THREAD
Representative Greg Stanton
Former Phoenix Mayor, Former Phoenix City Councilman & Attorney
stantonforarizona.com/issues
@gregstantonaz
Instagram.com/gregstantonaz
facebook.com/gregstantonaz
THREAD
🍎 WA State🌲
DO NOT MAIL YOUR BALLOTS —They won’t be counted.
You must drop them off at a ballot drop box by 8:00 pm.
👉kingcounty.gov/depts/election…
As #WaveCast captain of WA State, it’s my privilege to feature a few of our amazing candidates on #ElectionDay
#WAelex
#WaveCastWA
DO NOT MAIL YOUR BALLOTS —They won’t be counted.
You must drop them off at a ballot drop box by 8:00 pm.
👉kingcounty.gov/depts/election…
As #WaveCast captain of WA State, it’s my privilege to feature a few of our amazing candidates on #ElectionDay
#WAelex
#WaveCastWA
Pediatrician Kim Schrier is the doctor we need in the House. She’s running in the #WA08 against Trump sycophant @DinoRossiWA who takes funds from the NRA.
Kim is for:
🔹Healthcare
🔹Education
🔹GunReform
Visit👉drkimschrier.com/meet-kim/
Follow👉@DrKimSchrier
#WAelex
#WaveCastWA
Kim is for:
🔹Healthcare
🔹Education
🔹GunReform
Visit👉drkimschrier.com/meet-kim/
Follow👉@DrKimSchrier
#WAelex
#WaveCastWA
Former WSU chancellor, Lisa Brown is running in the #WA05 against @cathymcmorris who votes a whopping 98% w/Trump’s party lines, incl voting to gut healthcare every single time.
Lisa will work for her constituents, not Trump
Visit👉lisabrownforcongress.com
Follow👉@Lisa4Congress
Lisa will work for her constituents, not Trump
Visit👉lisabrownforcongress.com
Follow👉@Lisa4Congress
#MidTerms2018 #GUBERNATORIAL
#AKGOP #MikeDunleavy 🇺🇸
#FLGOP #RonDeSantis 🇺🇸
#GAGOP #BrianKemp 🇺🇸
#IAGOP #KimReynolds 🇺🇸
#KSGOP #KrisKobach 🇺🇸
#MEGOP #ShawnMoody 🇺🇸
#NVGOP #AdamLaxalt 🇺🇸
#OHGOP #MikeDeWine 🇺🇸
#MAGA #KAG2018 #VOTERED #REDWAVE 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
#AKGOP #MikeDunleavy 🇺🇸
#FLGOP #RonDeSantis 🇺🇸
#GAGOP #BrianKemp 🇺🇸
#IAGOP #KimReynolds 🇺🇸
#KSGOP #KrisKobach 🇺🇸
#MEGOP #ShawnMoody 🇺🇸
#NVGOP #AdamLaxalt 🇺🇸
#OHGOP #MikeDeWine 🇺🇸
#MAGA #KAG2018 #VOTERED #REDWAVE 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
#MidTerms2018 #SENATE
#AZGOP #MarthaMcSally 🇺🇸
#FLGOP #RickScott 🇺🇸
#INGOP #MikeBraun 🇺🇸
#MOGOP #JoshHawley 🇺🇸
#NVGOP #DeanHeller 🇺🇸
#MAGA #KAG2018 #VOTERED #REDWAVE 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
#AZGOP #MarthaMcSally 🇺🇸
#FLGOP #RickScott 🇺🇸
#INGOP #MikeBraun 🇺🇸
#MOGOP #JoshHawley 🇺🇸
#NVGOP #DeanHeller 🇺🇸
#MAGA #KAG2018 #VOTERED #REDWAVE 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Now endorsed by @BarackObama:
@sharicedavids - #KS03
@JasonCrowCO6 - #CO06
@ElectLong - #WA03
@LucyWins2018 - #GA06
@Carolyn4GA7 - #GA07
@SusanPalmerOH - #OH16
@Axne4Congress - #IA03
@lisa4congress - #WA05
@MaxRose4NY - #NY11
@ChrisPappasNH - #NH01
@Lizzie4Congress - #TX07
@sharicedavids - #KS03
@JasonCrowCO6 - #CO06
@ElectLong - #WA03
@LucyWins2018 - #GA06
@Carolyn4GA7 - #GA07
@SusanPalmerOH - #OH16
@Axne4Congress - #IA03
@lisa4congress - #WA05
@MaxRose4NY - #NY11
@ChrisPappasNH - #NH01
@Lizzie4Congress - #TX07
Obama endorsements cont’d:
@IronStache - #WI01
@DrKimSchrier - #WA08
@ScottWallacePA - #PA01
@nancysoderberg - #FL06
@JahanaHayesCT - #CT05
@Abby4Iowa - #IA01
@BetsyforIL - #IL13
@laurenbaer - #FL18
@golden4congress - #ME02
@ElissaSlotkin - #MI08
@HaleyLive - #MI11
@IronStache - #WI01
@DrKimSchrier - #WA08
@ScottWallacePA - #PA01
@nancysoderberg - #FL06
@JahanaHayesCT - #CT05
@Abby4Iowa - #IA01
@BetsyforIL - #IL13
@laurenbaer - #FL18
@golden4congress - #ME02
@ElissaSlotkin - #MI08
@HaleyLive - #MI11
Obama endorsements cont’d:
@danielfeehan - #MN01
@AngieCraigMN - #MN02
@Clint4Congress - #NV02
@karaforcongress - #NE02
@dana_balter - #NY24
@BetsyRaderOH - #OH14
@LindaForNC - #NC02
@HoulahanForPa - #PA06
@SpanbergerVA07 - #VA07
@JenniferWexton - #VA10
@deanbphillips - #MN03
@danielfeehan - #MN01
@AngieCraigMN - #MN02
@Clint4Congress - #NV02
@karaforcongress - #NE02
@dana_balter - #NY24
@BetsyRaderOH - #OH14
@LindaForNC - #NC02
@HoulahanForPa - #PA06
@SpanbergerVA07 - #VA07
@JenniferWexton - #VA10
@deanbphillips - #MN03
🚨GOOD NEWS THREAD - HOUSE VERSION🚨
#OH12 left us with a cliffhanger. We all worked so hard to give @dannyoconnor1 an outright win. Yes it's a steep climb, but it could still happen. Either way, we did good!
But let's not overlook the OTHER good House news from last night.
#OH12 left us with a cliffhanger. We all worked so hard to give @dannyoconnor1 an outright win. Yes it's a steep climb, but it could still happen. Either way, we did good!
But let's not overlook the OTHER good House news from last night.
In "Toss-up" #MI08 Democratic primary voters OUT-VOTED Republican primary voters.
Democrat Elissa Slotkin (@ElissaSlotkin) is going to FLIP this seat right out from under incumbent GOP Rep. Mike Bishop.
But only if we help her right now.
Register. Vote. DONATE. Volunteer.
Democrat Elissa Slotkin (@ElissaSlotkin) is going to FLIP this seat right out from under incumbent GOP Rep. Mike Bishop.
But only if we help her right now.
Register. Vote. DONATE. Volunteer.
In "Toss-up" open seat #MI11, Democratic primary voters OUT-VOTED Republican primary voters.
But Democrat Haley Stevens (@HaleyLive) needs to hit the ground running if we want to FLIP this seat.
So let's get started.
Register. Vote. DONATE. Volunteer.
But Democrat Haley Stevens (@HaleyLive) needs to hit the ground running if we want to FLIP this seat.
So let's get started.
Register. Vote. DONATE. Volunteer.
Yesterday, you took @BlueWaveCS🌊 candidate @lisa4congress from 10.4 to 10.7 followers! 🤯 Great job, #BlueWave!
#ThursdayThoughts #COTD @DrKimSchrier is running in #WA08.
She's at 3.8k followers.
Think we can get her to 4.2k?❤️
#ThursdayThoughts #COTD @DrKimSchrier is running in #WA08.
She's at 3.8k followers.
Think we can get her to 4.2k?❤️
"My mother was a public elementary school teacher, my son is a public school student, and my entire education has been public, including college and medical school...Our children all deserve access to an excellent public education, regardless of zip code." --@DrKimSchrier
#COTD
#COTD
"When I was 16, I was diagnosed with type 1 diabetes and learned what it meant to worry about health costs. All that time in doctors’ offices inspired me to become a pediatrician so I could treat children and help families navigate the healthcare system." -- @DrKimSchrier #COTD
