Trump, Europe and the future of the liberal order — thread.
It took a while for Trump to take over foreign policy himself, but now he is there: unchained Trump, not anymore held back by advisors who have balanced his more radical views with their adherence to the status quo (Republican version). /1
His Europe trip gives a good insight into his views. /2
Trump with Stoltenberg
whitehouse.gov/briefings-stat…
Trump press conference after the Nato summit in Brussels
whitehouse.gov/briefings-stat…
Sun interview
int.nyt.com/data/documenth…
Trump with May
whitehouse.gov/briefings-stat…
Trump with Stoltenberg
whitehouse.gov/briefings-stat…
Trump press conference after the Nato summit in Brussels
whitehouse.gov/briefings-stat…
Sun interview
int.nyt.com/data/documenth…
Trump with May
whitehouse.gov/briefings-stat…
So what does Trump want? Some are convinced he wants to actively dismantle the existing liberal international order. /3
I don’t think he does. He just doesn’t care about institutions that are pillars of that order: WTO, Nato, EU. For Trump they are of interest only if he can use them for his America first-agenda. They don’t have value in themselves, they are instruments of US power at best. /4
Trump is an arch-realist: he believes in power defined as coercion, with an emphasis on hard power. The world is a shark tank, and he sees himself as the strongest shark. The strong don’t need rules and institutions; the American Gulliver must remain unchained. /5
Indeed, the US can achieve goals through coercion. And counter-alliances are unlikely at least among the liberal democracies because the depend on the US: the result of decades of order-building by the US. America can wreck that order and still prosper -- for a few years. /6
Europeans overwhelmingly hope that despite Trump’s rhetoric, the liberal international order can survive the era Trump, somehow. They don't have a plan B: something that could replace the US-guaranteed liberal order. /7
But without strong US commitment, this order is under threat, in its four dimensions: the EU as the soft side of European order, Nato as its hard side; the global trade order and the global security order managed mainly by the US. All these are dimensions of the liberal order. /8
This liberal order relies on institutions, but also on powers willing to invest in it; with the US at the center. China and Russia are interested in parts of that order (trade, power-sharing at the UN); but at the same time they reject the liberal aspects of that order. /9
So we have a new situation: A US president who doesn’t think the order the US has built post-1945 and post-1989 is in the US interest. This brings massive uncertainty: will the liberal order fall apart with a bump, will it slowly decline, or survive with scars? /10
3 unknowns: a) will Trump reluctantly do what is necessary to keep the order alive, or try to undermine at least elements (such as the EU)? b) the other liberal powers - will they step up? c) will Russia and China use the momentum to attack the liberal order more intensely? /11
Europans can wait and see what happens, or they can strengthen the liberal order to make it more resilient. That would include: a) a grand bargain east-west, north-south in the EU to ease tensions, b) a serious investment into Nato (building a European defense pillar) ... /12
... c) deeper partnerships with liberal powers outside Europe, d) a principled, but non-hostile relationship with Trump, trying to keep him on board for the liberal order, e) a clear rejection Russia's and China's authoritarian order (spheres of influence/control-approach). /13
In a non-liberal world, Europe would be lost; the way Trump pushes Germany and Britain around gives a foretaste. Blaming Trump is easy, getting out of one’s own comfort zone harder. Europe must reconfirm liberal principles and invest in the liberal order before it’s too late. /14
