Thread by @StevePeers

1/ Some thoughts about the UK "rolling over" trade agreements in a no deal scenario. These are mostly general points, but I also have a specific point about the UK/Israel agreement that's just been announced.

2/ So far 'roll-over' FTAs have been announced with Switzerland and Israel, and agreement to roll over mutual recognition treaties has been announced with Australia and New Zealand. The DTI says Mr Fox is meeting with Canada, Colombia and others in Davos: gov.uk/government/new…

3/ Unfortunately the text of these treaties is not available, so they can't be compared with the comparable EU treaties now in force. But since the intention is to retain (for now) the status quo, the claim by the DTI (and Israeli govt) that they will "boost" trade is misleading.

4/ In fact the treaties might offer *less* than the status quo. The press release on the UK/Swiss treaty says that it replicates existing treaties "as far as possible" (4th para): gov.uk/government/new…
So what's missing exactly? We don't yet know.

5/ One thing that can't be replicated unless the EU also agrees is the "rules of origin", ie the definition of when products get the benefits of an FTA. At the moment a Swiss product can come into the UK under (say) the EU/Swiss FTA, be processed here, and then sold in the EU.

6/ Under no deal Brexit, the Swiss product can still enter the UK tariff free under the UK/Swiss FTA, but if it's processed in the UK that might make the finished product ineligible for FTA treatment under the EU/Swiss FTA. (Ditto a UK product finished in Switzerland).

7/ Now the specific UK/Israel point. The EU has an FTA both with Israel and with the PLO on behalf of the Palestinian authority. However, there's a legal and political controversy over products made in the Israeli settlements in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

8/ These products were usually marked 'Made in Israel', and it was argued that the EU/Israel FTA applied to them. But in 2010 the CJEU ruled that neither the EU/Israel nor EU/Palestinian FTA applied: curia.europa.eu/juris/document…

9/ The UK/Israel FTA might now take a different approach, or it might be applied differently in practice. If so, this *would* "boost trade" with the areas concerned - linked to 1/3 of EU/Israel trade in 2010: spiegel.de/international/…
But there's an obvious political issue here.

10/ I expect that some would welcome such a development, and some would oppose it. Either way, it's worth asking whether the UK/Israel FTA would change the status quo or not, and more generally digging into both the trade policy and the politics of these rollover treaties. //