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A summary and reaction to May's bombshell Brexit statement 1/ She's asking for a new A50 delay so that either cross-party talks or an exhaustive Commons vote can produce a new deal. WA has to stand but changes to future arrangement allowed...
2/ What it means: May has bottled out of a fourth vote; bottled out of an election and bottled out of No Deal. All to be welcomed but I can't seeing the KKK-inspired crazies of the Tory right being happy...
3/ May's entire strategy of reliance on Tory votes to get a deal through is over. Finished. Kaput. Two years of political energy, 29 ministerial careers, hours of legislative time, civil service work-hours - completely wasted...
4/ So now May has to rely on Corbyn to do a soft-Brexit deal they can both put to the Commons. Labour's required deal is: customs union plus dynamic alignment to EEA. Read the detail here: ippr.org/publications/t…
5/ If she can agree on that, she can get Brexit through, though there will be Labour rebels and massive Tory rebellion. My hunch is she cannot. Therefore the next step is to turn the indicative options into binding legislation in Commons. This is doable.
6/ Before we get to the detail of the options votes, let's register one thing. The Tory party is morally broken. Its entire project failed.... Now as to what to do about it, listen up fellow progressives...
7/ A simple revocation of Article 50 would have no legitimacy. To cancel the referendum we need a second one. That's not just me - lots of ppl in the PV campaign think that. To get a second referendum we need it to be Remain vs a Deal...
8/ There is a near-majority in the Commons for a Customs Union only; and close to one for Norway+. I cannot see a major problem with having Norway+ on a second referendum ballot paper - the important thing is to trigger a second referendum and a long delay while it happens.
9/ I switched to supporting PV because, after Chequers, it was clear there was no majority in parliament for May's deal. That now confirmed. If May has to accept a Commons-mandated Norway+ proposal, there has to be a referendum because it's nothing like what ppl were promised
10/10 Corbyn and the PLP have ground the Tory majority to dust. Labour comrades - we need to stop any Lexiteers trying to do a deal without a PV. Obviously. Background on the coming Tory-geddon here... newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
