Thread by @JonahBlank

1/6
Latest #SriLankaBlast update:
-A lot of Twitter chatter about possible link to #NationalThowheethJamaath. Here's a story relaying the substance, next tweets provides some analysis.
hindustantimes.com/world-news/sri…

2/6
Argument in favor of #NationalThowheethJamaath culpability for #SriLankaBlasts:
-According to @AFP, #SriLanka police sent out a warning on April 11 that #NTJ was planning suicide attacks on churches. If report is accurate, suggests there's actual intel rather than just rumor.

3/6
Argument against ##NationalThowheethJamaath being (sole) culprit for #SriLankaAttacks:
-#NTJ has never conducted operations remotely like this: They've largely limited themselves to vandalism. Have not demonstrated anything like the organizational capacity for major ops.

4/6
Argument that #NationalThowheethJamaath might have played a part in #SriLankaAttacks:
-While #NJT on its own does not seem to have the capacity for such complex coordinated attacks, it's not impossible that they were working with a much more capable international partner...

5/6
...There has never been a major #terrorism attack in #SriLanka perpetrated by an international Islamist group. If #NationalThowheethJamaath was working with a group like #ISIS/#Daesh or #AlQaeda, it would be the first such case. Not impossible-- but too early to tell.

6/6
Bottom line on reports of #NationalThowheethJamaath culpability for #SriLankaAttacks:
-If the report of a pre-blast police warning hold up, that's a very important (& damning) data-point.
-Unlikely NJT could have done this alone.
-Still too early to assess who is responsible.

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