Thread by @shaun_riordan

@vtchakarova @amlivemon @Halsrethink @LibrariumViews @JamesGRickards @gbponz @BaldingsWorld @C_Barraud @BcnFox @MacaesBruno @chigrl @RobertMCutler @GrayConnolly @DrPippaM @Kostian_V @wangxiangweihk @IndoPac_Info @michaeltanchum I really liked the piece. I’m particular I liked your characterisation of #DragonBear as a “temporary asymmetric relationship”. But some questions too:

@vtchakarova @amlivemon @Halsrethink @LibrariumViews @JamesGRickards @gbponz @BaldingsWorld @C_Barraud @BcnFox @MacaesBruno @chigrl @RobertMCutler @GrayConnolly @DrPippaM @Kostian_V @wangxiangweihk @IndoPac_Info @michaeltanchum 1) is the main common denominator of #Dragonbear really the exclusion of #US & #EU from #Eurasia (all very Mackinder!)? Are #China’s & #Russia’s #geopolitics the same? Does not Russia aim to exclude while China aims to bridge?

@vtchakarova @amlivemon @Halsrethink @LibrariumViews @JamesGRickards @gbponz @BaldingsWorld @C_Barraud @BcnFox @MacaesBruno @chigrl @RobertMCutler @GrayConnolly @DrPippaM @Kostian_V @wangxiangweihk @IndoPac_Info @michaeltanchum 2) Does #China really need #Russia know how in #diplomacy & #defence? I spent 5 years dealing with Chinese diplomacy, and it has nothing to learn from Russia. I suspect the day’s when China learnt from Russian military and military technology are also long gone

@vtchakarova @amlivemon @Halsrethink @LibrariumViews @JamesGRickards @gbponz @BaldingsWorld @C_Barraud @BcnFox @MacaesBruno @chigrl @RobertMCutler @GrayConnolly @DrPippaM @Kostian_V @wangxiangweihk @IndoPac_Info @michaeltanchum #China seems to prefer copying #US military technology (F35), and in some areas moving beyond even that. Chinese focus on A2/AD, especially excluding US from #TaiwanStrait does not fit well with Russian focus on Hybrid destabilisation

@vtchakarova @amlivemon @Halsrethink @LibrariumViews @JamesGRickards @gbponz @BaldingsWorld @C_Barraud @BcnFox @MacaesBruno @chigrl @RobertMCutler @GrayConnolly @DrPippaM @Kostian_V @wangxiangweihk @IndoPac_Info @michaeltanchum 3) How good are the relations between #Putin & #XiJinping really? Very different kinds of authoritarians: Putin a tactical gambler who destabilises to see what turns up; Xi a long term strategist who yearns for Chinese led stability. #TalvsBottvinik1960

@vtchakarova @amlivemon @Halsrethink @LibrariumViews @JamesGRickards @gbponz @BaldingsWorld @C_Barraud @BcnFox @MacaesBruno @chigrl @RobertMCutler @GrayConnolly @DrPippaM @Kostian_V @wangxiangweihk @IndoPac_Info @michaeltanchum 4) Does #Russia involvement in frozen conflicts really cause no problems for #China? As a country obsessed with territorial integrity (Xinjiang, Tibet, Taiwan etc), Russia’s gleeful assertion of self-determination and border changes set in pleasant precedents

@vtchakarova @amlivemon @Halsrethink @LibrariumViews @JamesGRickards @gbponz @BaldingsWorld @C_Barraud @BcnFox @MacaesBruno @chigrl @RobertMCutler @GrayConnolly @DrPippaM @Kostian_V @wangxiangweihk @IndoPac_Info @michaeltanchum 5) Are we in a bipolar world, or on our way to multipolarity, or even an entropic world system? If #US backs further into isolationism (already lost global hegemon role), will new alliances emerge to contain #China (#India, #Vietnam, #Japan, even #Russia)?

@vtchakarova @amlivemon @Halsrethink @LibrariumViews @JamesGRickards @gbponz @BaldingsWorld @C_Barraud @BcnFox @MacaesBruno @chigrl @RobertMCutler @GrayConnolly @DrPippaM @Kostian_V @wangxiangweihk @IndoPac_Info @michaeltanchum In multipolar world Systems, alliances tend to be very fluid, changing with circumstances, with different alignments over different issues. At one point in C19 #UK & #Germany were allied against #US over #Venezuela. Will #XiJinping & #putin revert to Palmerstonian #geopolitics

@vtchakarova @amlivemon @Halsrethink @LibrariumViews @JamesGRickards @gbponz @BaldingsWorld @C_Barraud @BcnFox @MacaesBruno @chigrl @RobertMCutler @GrayConnolly @DrPippaM @Kostian_V @wangxiangweihk @IndoPac_Info @michaeltanchum Is @realDonaldTrump really capable of triangulating #China & #Russia? He’s not a new #RichardNixon, let alone #Kissinger. With State devoid of China experience, difficult to see good outcome to #USChina trade conflict

@vtchakarova @amlivemon @Halsrethink @LibrariumViews @JamesGRickards @gbponz @BaldingsWorld @C_Barraud @BcnFox @MacaesBruno @chigrl @RobertMCutler @GrayConnolly @DrPippaM @Kostian_V @wangxiangweihk @IndoPac_Info @michaeltanchum @realDonaldTrump 7) ( yes, I know I missed one!) Should we include #Cyberspace in the analysis? #Russia remains a destabiliser in cyber. #China, as it closes the technology gap with US, ever more wants cyber stability - area of tension & conflict to be exploited?

@vtchakarova @amlivemon @Halsrethink @LibrariumViews @JamesGRickards @gbponz @BaldingsWorld @C_Barraud @BcnFox @MacaesBruno @chigrl @RobertMCutler @GrayConnolly @DrPippaM @Kostian_V @wangxiangweihk @IndoPac_Info @michaeltanchum @realDonaldTrump 8) Can #EU really stand aside? I agree with @gbponz that EU is busted flush - #China no longer takes it seriously as geopolitical pole. Many European countries already tied into Chinese institutions (AIDB, BRI). With @realDonaldTrump out to break up EU, where else to go?

@vtchakarova @amlivemon @Halsrethink @LibrariumViews @JamesGRickards @gbponz @BaldingsWorld @C_Barraud @BcnFox @MacaesBruno @chigrl @RobertMCutler @GrayConnolly @DrPippaM @Kostian_V @wangxiangweihk @IndoPac_Info @michaeltanchum @realDonaldTrump Enjoy your weekend!