Thread by @DefenseBaron

I'm at the @TheWilsonCenter for the @ChicagoCouncil's annual survey of US public opinion on foreign policy. Important data about what Americans REALLY think... #2019CCS

@TheWilsonCenter @ChicagoCouncil Quick take, survey found extreme partisan views of immigration as a threat and support for military force. Also, American support for @NATO has skyrocketed since Trump entered office.

@TheWilsonCenter @ChicagoCouncil @NATO Summary: Americans still strongly support int'l engagement's key metrics. Report is titled "Rejecting Retreat."
"So, am I watching a different movie? ...is the American public not buying in?" - Jane Harman
"Not only are they not buying in, they're rejecting it." - @IvoHDaalder

@TheWilsonCenter @ChicagoCouncil @NATO @IvoHDaalder "The president is trying to move away" from engagement/alliances, but "as far as we see, he is not succeeding with the American people." - Ivo
Since Trump, we ar seeing "even higher numbers" supporting alliances, trade, etc adds Dina Smeltz

@TheWilsonCenter @ChicagoCouncil @NATO @IvoHDaalder Harman introducing @RHFontaine, who worked for McCain: "John McCain was THE leader" of congressional delegations. "John McCain was, among other things, the pied piper of foreign policy for Congress"

@TheWilsonCenter @ChicagoCouncil @NATO @IvoHDaalder @RHFontaine Fontaine: Old model was, forward deployed troops to support alliances, free trade, and when possible favor democracies over autocrats. ... it used to be "how" to do those. Now it's "whether" to do it. But the findings of this support the traditional view. "It's not a refutation"

@TheWilsonCenter @ChicagoCouncil @NATO @IvoHDaalder @RHFontaine "If John McCain were still in the Senate, what would he be saying right now?" - Jane Harman
"He'd probably be on a plane to #Afghanistan right now." - @RHFontaine #2019CCS

@TheWilsonCenter @ChicagoCouncil @NATO @IvoHDaalder @RHFontaine People want traditional engagement, Fontaine notes, but...
On Afghanistan, no question Americans have soured on these wars @IvoHDaalder says. #2019CCS

Partisan divide. Republicans belief that immigrants are a threat is soaring. Dems plummeting. But climate change rising for all. #2019CCS

Notice a new split on China. Republicans think a threat and growing. Dems rejecting China as a threat. (Think about the google employee protest of DOD when you look at this, for example.)

Nobody really cared about @NATO until Trump was elected, calling the alliance “obsolete.” Now public support has soared.

Remarkable. Down the list, Republicans support more robust military, drones, nukes, and not intl orgs. Dems support Intl orgs, aid, democracy promotion. Been this way forever, right?

Republicans showing a generational split on climate change, @RHFontaine say. "Millennials might" make the difference. In general they (incl Republicans) will put it NO. 1 on their issue list, twice as much as older GOP.

@RHFontaine Shifting opinions on China is a cue from the administration's focus on it, says Dina Smeltz. 74% of GOP favor tariffs, only 30% of Dems.

@RHFontaine On foreign mil sales - "Americans don't like selling weapons to other countries," survey shows, @IvoHDaalder says. "There's just a very strong, negative, bipartisan view that selling weapons" doesn't make the US safer. " ... but if you ask if selling to allies is better, yes.

@RHFontaine @IvoHDaalder "Military engagement, in these polls, is distinctively unpopular"... due to cost, and perceived lack of results. @RHFontaine

@RHFontaine @IvoHDaalder IVO: There's this assumption that if you're against Afg and Iraq's high costs you're against all interventions... "this polls ays something different:" The way you make America safe is the way you aways have -- fwd forces, allies, etc...

@RHFontaine @IvoHDaalder For example, 60-70% support using troops to defend allies like Korea... forward basing strongly supported. Where there's no support for is mil intervention to resolve conflicts, "dumb wars" (a la Obama's line). But doesn't mean you're against alliances, defense spending, presence

@RHFontaine Harman: "The energy on the Dem side is around other issues... climate change, etc..." but plenty of Dems support spending, etc

@RHFontaine The American public supports using troops to defend from direct threats, but not to get involved in perceived internal conflicts -- so they support fighting ISIS, but not getting involved in Syria. -- Dina Smeltz

@RHFontaine .@RHFontaine makes a great point, great power competition (China, Russia growth) ... ranks WAY lower than a long list of issues like climate, etc. "There is a great power disconnect between the policymaker and the public that's going to have fairly profound impacts" #2019CCS