Until now, the professional-class liberal view of Trump's China tariffs has been derision: Yes there are legitimate grievances that shld be addressed. But the tactic of tariffs is mutually destructive and economically illiterate.
I think Hong Kong events may be changing that. 1/
I think Hong Kong events may be changing that. 1/
The new story is that economic engagement with China has not only failed to yield a more democratic or liberal society there, but that it has corrupted our own society. 2/
In this view, China's authoritarian government wields powerful carrots and sticks over US companies which themselves wield social and political power we increasingly perceive as dangerous. We are subjects of behemoths that are in the pockets of China's autocrats. 3/
Ironically, tariffs levied against China for entirely different reasons—and imposed by a President whose admiration for effective autocrats is not much hidden—are policy tools well-suited to this new consensus of the liberal professional class. 4/
It's incoherent to levy tariffs against a particular trade parter with which a country is in bilateral deficit to address an overall current account and trade deficit. 5/
But it's not at all incoherent to deploy tariffs against a particular trade partner if the goal is to reduce economic interdependence and entanglement with that trade partner for social and political reasons. 6/
So, arguably, Trump's tariffs were not bad policy, from a liberal, professional-class perspective, but prescient. 7/
Of course Trump himself, never one to stay in sync with liberal, professional-class views, seems entirely uninterested in "contagion of autocracy" concerns, or in the interests of Hong Kong protesters that have brought those concerns front-and-center. 8/
Instead, he perceives tremendous threat from a stagnant stock market and the possibility of recession heading into the 2020 elections. 9/
So as the liberal, professional-class finally comes around to the maybe-virtues of China tariffs, Trump is increasingly likely to declare an unpersuasive victory and be done with them. /10
This won't be motivated by a desire to "troll the libs". But it will be icing on the carrot cake. /fin
