Thread by @fetzert

Super thrilled to announce that "Did #Austerity cause #brexit?" has just been accepted for publication at the @AEAjournals in the American Economic Review. Short thread on whole paper available here wrap.warwick.ac.uk/106313/...

The paper traces the rapid rise of #UKIP after 2010, and the developing of anti-establishment and growing polarisation along key socio-economic divides over time.

And highlights that #austerity policies, in particular, the hollowing out of the welfare state since 2010 induced many individuals to adopt anti-establishment sentiment -- these were successfully channeled into votes for #Leave and #UKIP

Whats remarkable is that effects can be quite sharply traced to individual reforms affecting distinct populations. Such as, for example, people living in social rented housing with an excess bedroom that were hit by the bedroom tax...

There is much more work to be done to detail and document how #austerity since 2010 has effectively broken the social contract by massively skewing the age-bias of govt spending away from the future (education), the present (the working age population) towards the old

that of course doesnt mean that pensioners are doing well as UK state pensions are quite low. Yet, #austerity was a political choice that was informed by ideology not evidence: lowering taxes on the better off, while cutting spending is a recipe for social upheaval

many of which became apparent in the 2016 #EU #Brexit referendum and the growing polarisation. Scapegoating of immigrants becomes so much easier, when de-facto the public services are crumbling...

More work to be done on 1) Austerity & the rise of homelessness; 2) Deaths of despair 3) benefit sanctions 4) the unequal effects of local govt grant cuts 5) Seeding dislike? the 2011-2016 Work Programme, 6) the relationship between citizens & the private contractor state

linking here: @warwickecon @cage_warwick