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I am not an economist by training. I understand human behavior, and what drives economic activity. The slowdown in GDP in India has been caused by a multitude of factors:

Complete disruption of old economic architecture [Demonetization, Formalization, GST, Bankruptcy Law]...
Result: Dramatic Negative Wealth Effect. This has caused massive erosion in the Value of stocks, and Real Estate. Also, Govt drive to keep inflation under check has dried up credit
I don't remember any time in recent history when so much wealth destruction has happened in a compressed timeframe. The Value erosion is small-cap midcap reflects that pain. It's a dramatic downward spiral
The Policymakers adopted the approach - Let the poison flush out of the system on its own without realizing the collateral damage it's causing to the wider economic system. It's good that the Govt is waking up and throwing everything at the system now - Corp tax cut
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Deepak Singh
@smarket
How Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh destroyed Indian economy that even after 4 years - India is still paying a huge price for their misrule
Sonia Gandhi NGO Lobby first threw fiscal discipline out of the window and she went berserk on entitlement programs [MNREGA, Right to Food, Relentless increase in MSP, Oil Subsidy] but there was no money to pay for it...so what Govt did - it borrowed like crazy
Sonia Gandhi did all this just when Indian Govt increased its wage bill many fold around 2008 and she then undertook ambitious Farm Loan waiver....she literally believed that you can print all this money and hand it over
Read 11 tweets
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Deepak Singh
@smarket
US Social Security Program:
Working population with a job pays payroll tax [6.2% employee, 6.2% employer] - the money goes into Social security pool and then US Govt pays its retirees - monthly pension from that pool. It's incredibly simple and powerful program
Till date - The Program has worked because it always gets in more money than it has to pay out. As a result - the Program has a $2 trillion reserves. The excess money is parked in Treasuries...so no risk. This is set to change by 2020 when money in will not be sufficient to pay
So from 2020 - US Govt will use the reserves to pay its beneficiaries and as per some estimates - the reserves will be empty by 2034. It means there will no excess fund to compensate for the shortfall in payroll taxes.
Read 4 tweets
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Deepak Singh
@smarket
Ok Coming to @India_Progress rant against Technical Analysis - well to begin with there is nothing Technical about Technical Analysis. There are two aspects of trading/investing:
1. The underlying Business
2. Buying and Selling of Business that happens in market
It is the job of investing community to determine the price of Business based on hazaar things from cost of money to the cash flow business generates to how much potential business has. It's a guess work all the time when people decide what price to pay for the business
IBM can pay you 4% dividend yield and trade at PE of 10 but nobody will buy in prevailing environment when they can buy Amazon at PE of 200 :)) so to say that there is some perfect way to value business is NON SENSE
Read 7 tweets

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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
From end 2012 to Q1 2019 (7yrs), China debt to GDP ratio rose 63.2% to 259.4% of GDP (meaning at end 2012 it was less than 200% of GDP). Unless that 63.2% credit/gdp was into productive investment that raises future productivity, the incremental capital to output (ICOR)worsening
The juxtaposition to China rapid growth of debt is the Eurozone deleveraging (credit/gdp ratio FALLING). Australia, Thailand, Malaysia & India have all deleveraged.

Indonesia capital market remains undeveloped & needs to deepen. Smallest debt to GDP ratio in Asia 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻.
How do u deleverage? Well, several ways but ultimately your DEBT has to rise LESS than your OUTPUT.

DEBT/GDP = ratio & that ratio has to fall.

If ur output (GDP) falls, then your debt growth has to fall FASTER! That is how you deleverage. How u do so is up to u. NIRP is 1 way
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AltSarkar_FM
@AltsarkarF
#CorporationTax #AltSarkar's view and commentary.
First the good news: FM @nsitharaman’s corporate tax cut is a clear sign that #ModiSarkar is worried about the state of the #Indian #Economy. That’s good because it means she acknowledges the scale of the #budget2019 cock-up.
Now the bad news: a day earlier, @RBI Governor, @DasShaktikanta, said that the Government’s fiscal space is limited. This means: don't cut taxes, don't spend more than budgeted. He also said, spend resources 'fruitfully' i.e. to get the 'most bang for your buck'.
And now the even worse news: this 1.5 Lakh Crore tax giveaway is neither necessary nor sufficient, in and of itself, to solve the problem that spurred it - the slump in economic growth. Like antibiotics that neither help a common cold, nor make the body stronger. Here's why
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IndoPacific_SCS_Info
@IndoPac_Info
#India #Pakistan: Unprecedented heavy shelling all along the Line of Control has been reported by many sources in the last few hours. The Pakistani side of the LoC has been cut off from the internet. Casualties reported. Not clear what the reason is for the flare up.
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Laurent Franckx
@LaurentFranckx
Thread on #GDP, the environment and happiness. As I have already repeatedly pointed out here, GDP is often charged with all the evils of the world, but that is mostly because both the people who use it and those who criticize think it measures things it doesni't measure /
First of all: most of the things I will write here are discussed at length in the excellent "GDP: A Brief but Affectionate History" by @DianeCoyle1859 , a book that I consider a masterpiece of economics explained to a general public.
As was said about Hannibal Lecter, if you want to understand evil (or GDP 😉) you need to go back to its origins. Rudimentary attempts to measure national income have existed for centuries. Some of them were actually really valiant attempts, given the state of data at the time
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Christophe Barraud🛢
@C_Barraud
🇨🇳 #CHINA Q3 GDP Y/Y: 6.5% V 6.6%E (slowest growth since Q1 2009)
*NBS spokesman Mao Shengyong said that the international situation was bringing “downward pressure” on China.
*Link: bloom.bg/2RVX1ZA
🇫🇷 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 French tire maker Michelin warned of declining sales in Europe and #China in the second half of the year, dragging down shares of its competitors in the U.S. and Europe - Bloomberg
*Statement: bit.ly/2EujhqH
🇺🇸🇨🇳🇪🇺 In a volley of filings, the EU, #China and the U.S. this week escalated disputes over new U.S. metals tariffs, the European response to those levies, and Chinese intellectual property practices - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Millennial Macro
@MillennialMacro
#demographics #militaries #economies #currencies
#USA
- Best demographics
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- Largest economy
- Most used currency
- Liquid financial markets
- Open capital account
- Rule of law
- Best geography
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- Not trade dependent
#USA
Top trade partners as of 30 June 2018:
- China: 15.2% (strategic competitor)
- Canada: 15.1%
- Mexico: 14.6%
- Japan: 5.1%
- Germany: 4.4%

The next 10 years could result in the below:
- Mexico (25%)
- Canada (20%
- Japan (7%)
- South Korea (5%)
- Great Britain (4%)
#USA
Bring the manufacturing (jobs) home while negatively impacting China's economy.
forbes.com/sites/kenrapoz…
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