Are you a fan of parallel universes? Want to boost Boris, or save Jez? If so you may enjoy my GE2019 Resimulator. I've taken the results for the UK (ex NI) and plugged them into an election simulator where you can adjust polls from their actual numbers.1/n livedataoxford.shinyapps.io/GE2019_Resimul…
With a uniform national swing on 2019 it's fairly obvious how hard it would have been for the Conservatives to lose majority. Their lead over Labour would have had to collapse to 5 points - lower than almost any polling. 2/n
And for Lib Dems to make even 20 seats they would have needed an extra two point swing from Conservatives. To deprive them of a majority would have required a full six point LD/Con swing. 3/n
Anyways this will all be useless as a future predictive device if the boundary review goes through - but it's still interesting to see just how baked in Conservative majority was. 4/n
Finally, here is a picture of the pattern of seat outcomes arrayed by the Conservative Lead over Labour and the Brexit vote. Note how effectively the Conservatives won the Leave vote but how limited their representation in Remain areas was. n/n 
