Thread by @unseen1_unseen

Okay, we now have several more days of data on the China virus. There are some trends becoming clear.

It's highly contagious. The infected are increasing exponentially.

The death rate is holding steady at around 2.5%-3%

The incubation period is about 14 days

Human to human transmission is happening

During incubation period patients are asymptomatic

The virus can be spread by asymptomatic infected individuals

Countries are now seeing secondary infections from people that were infected in China.

It's clear the countries health systems are about 2 weeks behind the infection due to the asymptomatic conditions of this virus. Infected individuals can walk around for up to two weeks infecting countless people before authorities are even aware there is a problem.

Because of this and the fact it is highly contagious the chances of stopping this virus from spreading around the globe are somewhere between small and zero.

In other words, the virus as already escaped into the wild and is self replicating. The death rate of 2-3% is about the same death rate seen for the Spanish flu in developed nations. In non developed nations the death rate for Spanish flu was much high up to 20%

There is no reason to suspect this would not be the case with this virus. 2-3% is with good health care systems, ventilators and medicine. If this virus gets a foothold in a country with poor sanitary conditions and a weak healthcare system the death toll could be staggering.

On the good news front there are reports of a vaccine in the works. However, reports say it will be a year at least for mass production.

Just to give a feel for the possible implications of this virus and why leaders are closing borders and stock markets are selling off....

...on avg 10% of the US population gets infected by the flu per year. That's about 33million. If the flu had a 2.5% death rate that would mean about 825k deaths. In comparison last year 80,000 people died of the flu in the US which was a 40 year high.

It's still unclear of the infection rate of this new virus. However, some reports suggest it's a very high rate.

To try to control the spread the Trump admin as placed a 14 day quarantine on any US citizen returning to US from the "hot zone" in China in the last 14 days.

Also any US citizen returning from the rest of mainland China will be subjected to active health screening at ports of entry and up to 14 days of monitored self quarantine

He has signed a proclamation suspending entry of foreign Nationals that pose a risk of transmitting virus

That means foreign Nationals who have traveled in China in the last 14 days will be denied entry into the US.

These actions if nothing else should tell you how serious this virus is. Trump just closed the border to every non citizen that has been to China in the last 14 days.

While the risks for infection to Americans remain low at the current time with these measures due to globalization the virus will most likely spread beyond China's border and at that point unless Trump is willing to stop all foreign travel the virus will most likely arrive here

These are the most serious actions I've seen taken by the government in my memory. Again that should tell you how big a deal this is. Add in the fact that China itself has quarantined 50+ million people to try to stop the spread. These actions by governments are sending

A very specific message. They are worried. They may say it's low risk to not cause panic and that's fine atm. It is low risk but as long as the virus outbreak continues to grow that risk increases. This is definitely something you should keep an eye on in the coming days/weeks.

If you can you should watch the press conference on this hosted by administration officials today at the Whitehouse here: