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I think those calling complex systems fake and tear their clothes about invoking non-naive paranoic (anticipatory) measurements about #coranovirus bc it lacks, in their opinion, of scientific rigor... Do not really understand how science work. What they want is a Newtonian
Reduccionista approach, and that's ok if you want to publish papers. Wait until pandemics is over take the best epidemiological parameters, build a nice complicated model, test against observation and voila.
This kind of science is useless for real world desicion making under uncertainty. Let us consider a gun with unknown number of Chambers and bullets on them. If you don't play bc you are paranoic about getting your brains against the wall you loose some, also unknown, amout
Of money... If you play and win (survive) you keep your money. If you lose... Well you know what... What they are saying is that unless you can rigorous prove the probability of dying is greater that some threshold, you should play. Even worst... They think this should be
Your policy every time you are offered to play... Yes complexity science IS different, it is not a closed field with everything result, maybe we don't even have the correct maths for it...but that does not mean we should use the incorrect type of science for these problems.
For this case, being non-naive paranoic (anticipatory) is THE rigorous action for the current knowledge about risk under fat-tails. May be this guys should stop twitting so much and start studying @nntaleb technical Incerto…
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