Thread by @lumosbio

#COVID19 #CoronaVirus

🇮🇹#Italia Superspreader #Cluster THREAD 1/7🏨

Drew a #dataviz diagram based on available data* about the #Lombardy cluster, which as of EOD 2/22/20 had 54 cases, including 2 in #Milano, & still an unknown Patient 0.

*plz excuse any possible errors

2/7 This cluster has developed quite rapidly in the town of #Lodi, near #Milan, in the #Lombardy region of #Italy.

The story has shifted several times on Patient 0, but somehow Patient 1 - a 38 y/o male in Lodi - contracted the #COVID19 virus.

When Patient 1 had symptoms...

3/7 ...he went to the #ER at the local Codogno #hospital multiple X, but was sent home with only #antibiotics (which don't work on #COVID19italia)

He then infected his pregnant wife & friends.

Of the 1st group of ~6, all were in serious condition.

ansa.it/english/newswi…

4/7 There was also a small group of people who were in contact with Patient 1 in surrounding towns including:

➡️ A female colleague of his has been hospitalised with the virus in Piacenza, plus others from local bars, etc.

➡️ 5 Drs. and Nurses from the local hospital (Codogno)

5/7 It is said that across the various contact points - home, local towns, work, hospital - that 14 people were infected with #COVID19 from Patient 1 initially.

From this area of ~11 villages, approximately 50,000 people are under #quarantine today.

ilsole24ore.com/art/coronaviru…

6/7 By the end of the day (EOD) 02/22/20, there were 54 confirmed cases in the #Lombardy cluster.

Across #Italy there were 76 total #COVID19italia cases. 33 are hospitalized, of which 18 in ICU, plus 11 in home isolation and 2 deaths. 👇

https://twitter.com/jo_nur_jo/status/1231371535228772352

7/7 At least part of the reason for the spread, other than the fact Patient 1 went undiagnosed, was likely the fact the local hospital staff weren't wearing masks or gloves.

No doubt more facts & data will emerge in the days ahead. #COVID19italia

https://twitter.com/OdysseusIthake/status/1231295122672881670

UPDATE:

Italian #COVID19 cases numbers scaled-up to between 152-157 (depending on the source), ~double yesterday's #s .

The #Lombardy cluster went from 54 "+" cases to ~114.

Overall, there are ~26 people in ICU and 3 deaths in total.

repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/0…

Clearly we are in wait-and-see mode as to the effect of the 🇮🇹 State's measures for the #Lombardy region:

➡️ Schools and Universities closed

➡️ Public events banned

➡️ Churches closed

Strict #quarantine for ~11 villages (50,000 people) remains in effect. #covid19italy

The challenges with #COVID19 are the long asymptomatic periods (up to 27 days) & high #transmission rates.

We saw temp. #rail closures in 🇦🇹Austria as a precaution.

But there is a report out of #Portugal 🇵🇹 of a *possible case in #Porto via #Milano

publico.pt/2020/02/23/soc…

If there are "+" cases that come from the #Lombardy cluster, it will be similar to what happened with the Grand Hyatt #cluster in Singapore a few weeks ago, that spread into France, UK, Spain, SouthKorea & Malaysia. 👇 #COVID19

🙏 for the best in 🇮🇹

https://twitter.com/lumosbio/status/1228409876805632000