All correct. But to add: Turkey has really no choice but to continue on this path, despite such unfortunate incidents. Standing down in Idlib will be the end of its presence in the more strategic areas it controls close to its borders. The refugee issue remains secondary to that.
I’m gonna guess that Russia has miscalculated here, but I might be wrong
Adding this little conversation with the great @heissenstat on this subject
Russia accuses Turkey of illegally sending strike drones into Syria's Idlib | Reuters reuters.com/article/us-syr…
Exactly why Turkey is anxious. It’s not really about Idlib
US ambassador to NATO apparently said: “I hope president Erdogan will see that we’re the ally of their past & their future.”
Which is less of a support & more of schadenfreude as Turkey aligned itself with Russia, against the US and the core revel cause in Syria, since 2016.
Which is less of a support & more of schadenfreude as Turkey aligned itself with Russia, against the US and the core revel cause in Syria, since 2016.
This is not rhetoric — it reflects the thinking about Turkey’s interests, with or without Erdogan
Turkey isn’t kidding
The idea that Turkey would pack up and go home is not looking good. The stakes are too high for Turkey, and it’s not even about Idlib.
This thread from two weeks ago on why this is a big fight for Turkey:
This thread from two weeks ago on why this is a big fight for Turkey:
‘The epic hizbollah.. we sacrifice our lives to you O Zahraa... but frankly [cracking up] they wiped us out completely.’
A hozbollah fighter in the aftermath of Turkish strikes against Syrian regime forces
A hozbollah fighter in the aftermath of Turkish strikes against Syrian regime forces
It’s proving that Turkey won’t stand down, and Russia may have miscalculated. But yes too early to tell:
Footage of Turkish strikes against Syrian forces
More footage of Turkish attacks against Syrian forces as part of the ongoing escalation between Turkey and Russia. Here a chemical weapons facility was reportedly hit
This piece by @MSuchkov_ALM covers the thinking & sentiments in Moscow. To me, aside from the threats, the great details here just show how anxious Moscow is, and how limited its options are. Read it:
al-monitor.com/pulse/original…
al-monitor.com/pulse/original…
Despite past lessons, people overestimate Russia’s ability to drive out Turkey from an area it views as *crucial* for the whole of its policy in Syria. Everything depends on Turkey’s pushback against this regime offensive in the north west. Full stop.
In a word, Turkey will not stand down and a deal will eventually be reached between it & Russia to consolidate a ceasefire in Idlib. Now this will make any new deal more solid than previous ones, and will be more stable and lasting than previous weak ones. In other words:
The current situation will make or break Turkey’s entire policy in Syria. Again it can’t let Idlib go this way. Russia’s miscalculation will be because it took a step it can’t finish; any prospective deal will make things more favorable to Turkey. A more stable Turkish safe zone.
Idlib, in the final analysis, isn’t crucial for Turkey. But Russia rushed things and made everything dependent on Idlib for Turkey. Russia could have taken its time to carve out more and more areas, rather than trying to scare Erdogan away.
Russia, as many supposed experts did, expected Turkey to just pack up & leave after few costly shots. They both overestimated Russia’s leverage and didn’t understand what Turkey’s presence in that area means for its entire Syria policy. Taken together, things were always clear.
This is important, in light of the updates above👆
Not just calling bluff. It’s pretty easy to see if we assess the capabilities of each side, versus their priorities. Easy to not see it if one sees things through bias or limited vision: Russia could inflict damage on Turkey but it has to go all in & all out to expel Turkey.
Big picture is always a good combination with granular details. Eventually, and despite the headlines, Turkey will win this round and get more than it had before this mess started: a more stable safe zone in Idlib is the more likely future scenario.
“Nuqta intaha”, or full stop.
“Nuqta intaha”, or full stop.
Easy to dismiss this as jingoism, but the reality is that these express core Turkish interests, Erdogan or not. Take it seriously. 
Turkish drones changed the game, according to this Russian dude
