As some have pointed out, this system looks more similar to the Pantsir with a MAN SX45 8×8 chassis (which is only operated by UAE, and has been spotted in Libya) than the normal KAMAZ-6560 8x8, so I'm going to delete the tweet. 
According to @Metin4020, the Turkish servicemen were part of a 400-man mechanized infantry battalion, which was struck at around 5 pm on Thursday by two Syrian Su-22 and Russian Su-34 aircraft that had previously struck SNA targets around 11 am. 64/
al-monitor.com/pulse/original…
al-monitor.com/pulse/original…
@Metin4020 He reports that air strikes from the Su-22 stopped the Turkish convoy, which led the Turkish servicemen to take cover in the buildings near the road. He says two of the buildings were then struck by Russian aircraft, possibly with KAB-1500L penetrating bombs (Kab-1500L-Pr). 65/
@Metin4020 He reports that the actual death toll in likely between 50-55. His sources say that Turkish outposts fired more than 15 MANPADS at Syrian and Russia aircraft after 1 pm on Thursday, possibly damaging Russian aircraft, which led to the heavy Russian response. 66/
@Metin4020 He also says that Russia, despite its official statement, refused to open the airspace over Idlib for Turkish helicopters to CASEVAC the wounded. They were instead evacuated by ground transportation to a hospital in Reyhanli, a Turkish border town about 70km away. 67/
@Metin4020 A couple of thoughts, 1) a US official said the air strike was conducted by Russian Su-24, not Su-22 or Su-34, and, if the strike was conducted in daylight at 5 pm, that means it could have been done by Syrian aircraft w/out good night vision systems. 68/
@Metin4020 2) if this was conducted against a Turkish convoy in Turkish vehicles and Turkish soldiers sheltered in nearby buildings (presumably, not posing a serious threat), this was clearly a deliberate strike that knew it was targeting Turkish servicemen designed to send a signal. 69/
@Metin4020 3) Russia is clearly more comfortable escalating than Turkey, and Russia was sending a signal that targeting Russian aircraft directly with MANPADS (clearly launched by Turkish servicemen, not rebels) will lead to a serious and immediate response. 70/
@Metin4020 I'd also be interested to see how this decision was made by Russian authorities. Was Lieutenant General Alexander Chayko empowered to make this decision to directly target Turkish troops himself? Possibly for self-defense. Or did he speak to Putin on Thursday? 71/
@Metin4020 4) Clearly, Erdogan did not expect this and was unwilling to immediately escalate in response. Instead, Turkey limited internet services, released tons of UAV footage showing Turkish strikes on SAA targets (for domestic consumption), and pinned the blame on Syria, not Russia. 72/
One of the unintended consequences of the air strike on Turkish servicemen in Syria is that, in response, Turkey’s military seemingly confirmed that they destroyed an Emirati Pantsir-S1 in Libya in this video (which they said was a Syrian Pantsir-S1). 73/
t.me/milinfolive/59…
t.me/milinfolive/59…
The video is grainy, so it is difficult to make a conclusive statement, but the system destroyed in that video resembles UAE's Pantsir-S1 on a Rheinmetall MAN-SX45 8x8 chassis (only used by UAE) than the normal Pantsir-S1 used by Russia and Syria on a KamAZ-6560 chassis. 74/
The Pantsir-S1 destroyed in the video also appears to have the original rectangular radar not the newer S-band SOTS radar. Syria has received Pantsir-S1 with both types of radars, but UAE only received the earlier radar (it was the 1st customer). 75/
1st photo of Pantsir-S1 on MAN and KamAZ chassis at KPB Tula's Shcheglovsky Val. Photos also emerged over the summer purportedly showing some of UAE's Pantsir-S1 in Libya, and Turkey has been operating UAVs there. 76/
I wonder to what extent Turkey is now applying its TTPs from Libya in Syria, since we know they've been heavily using armed UAVs in Libya to support GNA forces. But it appears that they've only been using UCAVs heavily in Syria more recently. 77/
Geolocation of the strikes from the Turkish UAV footage. 78/
Another video of Turkish UAVs destroying what appears to be two 130-mm M-46 field guns on Mercedes 4140 chassis. 80/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…
More photos of the Black Sea Fleet's Orsk Project 1171 BDK passing through the Bosporus yesterday on its way to Syria. 81/
Photos: arkeonaval
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Photos: arkeonaval
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…
So it appears the logic behind Turkey and Russia's actions in Idlib is to destroy each other's proxies forcing the other side to either 1) pull back or 2) escalate with its own forces. It will be interesting to see what Russia does now that the SAA has been hit so heavily. 82/
If this is true that the Syrian Pantsir that was destroyed had an S-band radar rather than the rectangular radar, that makes it more likely that the video shows a UAE Pantsir getting hit (maybe Turkey doesn't have a good clip of the Syrian Pantsir?). 83/
A Russian or Syrian Air Force aircraft, some sources are saying it was an L-39 or Su-24 (I can't tell), was shot down over Idlib today. 84/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…
This is apparently footage of the downed aircraft, which is reportedly a Turkish Anka-S UAV. Turkey’s Anadolu news agency reported that a Syrian aircraft was shot down. Could be a case of friendly fire. 85/
t.me/milinfolive/59…
t.me/milinfolive/59…
Pretty sure the wreckage we can see from the above wreckage is the wing and not the fuselage. Hard to tell what type of UAV it is from that alone, but it is clearly Turkish. 87/
Defense Minister Hulusi Akar announced that it has launched Operation Spring Shield in Idlib in response to the events on Thursday. 88/
dailysabah.com/politics/turke…
dailysabah.com/politics/turke…
Photos of the downed Turkish UAV from today (L) and a previously downed Anka-S UAV (R). Note the wing in the second photo. 89/
Anyway, it doesn't seem as though Russia and Turkey are both intent on de-escalating things in Idlib before the meeting between Erdogan and Putin this week. It is possible that Turkey hopes to change the facts on the ground before the meeting. 90/
A couple more comparison screenshots of the previously downed Turkish Anka-S and the UAV wreckage from today. 91/
youtube.com/watch?time_con…
youtube.com/watch?time_con…
Syria also announced that they have closed the airspace over Idlib and will shoot down any aircraft that flies over the region. 92/
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ria.ru/20200301/15659…
In semi-related news, the booster portion of a Pantsir-S 57E6E missile was found in Tripoli, possibly launched from a UAE Pantsir-S1. 93/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…
Video from TRT showing the location of Thursday's air strike that officially killed 33 Turkish servicemen (other reports say 50-55). 95/
96/
Video of another aircraft that was apparently shot down today over Idlib. Syria's SANA news agency said that two Syria aircraft had been shot down by Turkish forces today, and that the pilots ejected. 97/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…
Another video of one of the two Syrian Air Force aircraft show down today by Turkey. Reportedly, at least one of the aircraft was a Su-24. 98/
t.me/rybar/8792
t.me/rybar/8792
The Turkish military said that they destroyed the air defense system that show down their UAV, and they destroyed two Su-24 that were attacking their aircraft. 99/
msb.gov.tr/SlaytHaber/132…
msb.gov.tr/SlaytHaber/132…
100/
Another video apparently of one of those two Syrian Su-24s shot down by Turkey today. 102/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…
So there's a lot going on in Idlib obviously, but it is also important to look at the number of Turkish UAVs being shot down in Libya, apparently by UAE Pantsir-S1s. And important to take into account when assessing the Pantsir's effectiveness. 103/
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu had a phone call with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. 104/
One thing to point out about the current aerial combat going on over Idlib is that Turkey has armed UAVs that can drop ordinance and destroy infantry and armor, Russia and Syria don't. That changes some of calculus about what you're prepared to send into contested airspace. 105/
I'm pretty skeptical that Turkey would destroy one of Syria's S-300PMU-2 systems. I don't think there is any evidence they've been used so far (despite plenty of Israeli strikes), and Russian servicemen are likely co-located with the systems. 106/
Turkish Defense Minister Akar said that since the Feb 27th airstrike, Turkish forces have destroyed a UAV, 8 helos, 103 tanks, 19 APCs, 72 howitzers/MLRS, 3 air defense systems, 15 AT/mortars, 56 armored vehicles, 9 ammo depots, and 1,212 soldiers. 108/
aa.com.tr/en/turkey/turk…
aa.com.tr/en/turkey/turk…
A "source in the Syrian MoD" says that Syria shot down 6 Turkish UCAVs today over Idlib, and confirmed the reports that Turkish F-16 fighters shot down both Syrian Su-24 aircraft. I believe the second part but not the first. 109/
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The Anadolu news agency reports that Turkey struck Aleppo's Al-Nayrab military airport with armed drones and "fire support vehicles" to take it out of service. Al-Nayrab had been used by Syrian aircraft to target positions in Idlib. 110/
aa.com.tr/en/middle-east…
aa.com.tr/en/middle-east…
Video from Russian military journalist Evgeny Poddubny. He says Syrian air defenses are engaging armed Turkish UAVs (with gunfire in the background). 111/
t.me/epoddubny/2631
t.me/epoddubny/2631
112/
The SAA might need to try out some new tactics now that Turkish UCAVs are loitering overhead. 114/
One thing to consider when thinking about how Russia might respond to this is that Russian forces in NE Syria are overextended, far from most Russian aviation and supporting assets, and poorly equipped/manned (mostly MPs) for a conflict with a peer competitor. 115/
This geolocation by @obretix shows the complacency of the SAA in the face of Turkey's aerial threat. These targets were hit 5 hours after the strike on the Turkish servicemen with 3 groups/batteries (each of 3-4 howitzers in a line) separated by <200 meters in Al-Hawwash. 116/
@obretix It is easy to become lazy in combat, especially if you haven't faced an aerial threat for years. Everything becomes harder to do, especially at night. Which means nighttime is the best time for Turkish UCAVs to hunt SAA forces when they don't realize how vulnerable they are. 117/
@obretix That means that, even when Turkish UCAVs aren't striking targets, the threat posed by them will make it more difficult for SAA forces to conduct a new offensive since they have to use more deception and spacing which exacerbates their weak communications systems. 118/
@obretix Another thing to note is that Al-Hawwash, where these air strikes occurred on Thursday night, is only 40km away from Russia's Khmeimim Airbase. Thus, there isn't much buffer, and the proximity means Russia will feel more threatened by Turkish UAVs overhead. 119/
@obretix Video of one of the two Syrian Su-24 attack aircraft that was shot down by Turkey yesterday. 120/
youtube.com/watch?v=3EIgS7…
youtube.com/watch?v=3EIgS7…
Video purportedly from today of an aircraft (the Telegram channel is saying it was a UAV) going down today in Idlib. 122/
t.me/infantmilitari…
t.me/infantmilitari…
What appears to be an Iranian Ababil-3 UAV crashed in Idlib today as well (h/t @arawnsley). Not sure if it is the same aircraft from the above video. 123/
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@arawnsley This would be a quite significant move. Russia has used military police as a visible but non-combat force in Syria. By putting them there, Russia believes this will stop Turkey from using its assets to retake the town, including using air strikes. 124/
@arawnsley Turkey and Russia have both increased their focus on destroying each other's proxies, while trying to not hit each other's forces. The weaker the proxies become, the greater the role Turkish and Russian forces need to take, and the greater the risks of direct clashes. 125/
@arawnsley By putting troops, in particular military police, in the town, Moscow forces Ankara to either dramatically escalate the conflict by putting Russian troops at risk in order to retake the town, or to leave it to the SAA. MPs will also bring Russian Zvezda TV crews with them. 126/
@arawnsley Bloomberg's Turkish sources said that Turkey employed dozens of UAVs to strike Syrian targets since Thursday's air strike on Turkish forces in Idlib. 128/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
@arawnsley Look's as though another Turkish UAV crashed in Idlib today, reportedly a Bayraktar TB2. 131/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…
@arawnsley Both the Turkish Defense Ministry and the Syrian SANA agency confirmed that a Syrian aircraft was shot down today. The Turkish Defense Ministry claims that it was an L-39, which was reportedly shot down by a Turkish F-16 fighter. 132/
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vk.com/milinfolive?w=…
Turkey released new UAV footage showing airstrikes on targets along the M-5 highway in Khan Assubul and Saraqib as well as other towns. 134/
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135/
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Amid reports that Turkish forces have suffered casualties today, Turkish Black Hawks have been spotted flying over Idlib apparently to CASEVAC these soldiers. 138/
t.me/milinfolive/59…
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Another video of a Turkish helicopter flying over Idlib. 139/
Russian military police have begun patrolling the M5 highway from Seraqib with Rys and Typhoon-K vehicles. Their presence will obviously complicate future Turkish air strikes against SAA forces on the M5. 140/
t.me/epoddubny/2665
t.me/epoddubny/2665
RIA Novosti and Izvestia both have articles summarizing the events of the last week in Idlib. They report that the seizure of Saraqib last Thursday by rebel groups was due to the use of "several dozen" UCAVs (specifically Bayraktar TB2) with impunity. 141/
iz.ru/982401/anton-l…
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They were particularly effective because SAA forces didn't use camouflage or defensive positions to counter them. This changed over the weekend when the SAA moved air defense assets to the region, which heavily engaged Turkish UAVs on Sunday. 142/
ria.ru/20200303/15678…
ria.ru/20200303/15678…
RIA Novosti and Izvestia both report that SAA forces were able to shoot down 6 Turkish UAVs on Sunday, including Anka-S. As a result, Turkey significantly reduced its use of UAVs on Monday, which allowed SAA forces to recapture the town. 143/
Video reportedly of a Syrian Buk shooting at Turkish UAVs last night. Unlike MANPADS, Buks can engage targets at high altitudes, including Anka-S UCAVs. 144/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…
Another video of that Russian military police patrol along the M5 highway from Seraqib. 145/
t.me/new_militaryco…
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Photos from the Russian military police patrol with an UAZ Patriot, KamAZ-5350, Rys, and Typhoon-K vehicles. 146/
t.me/new_militaryco…
t.me/new_militaryco…
Photos of a Russian Air Force Su-34 and Syrian Air Force Su-24 over Idlib today. 147/
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SSB's Ismail Demir said that Turkey will deploy HiSAR-A low-altitude AD systems to Syria in a week, and HiSAR-O medium-altitude AD systems. Korkut AD systems and Koral Electronic Support/Attack systems are already in Idlib. 148/
dailysabah.com/business/defen…
dailysabah.com/business/defen…
The Daily Sabah also confirmed that Turkish F-16s that were flying in Turkish airspace shot down the two Syrian Su-24 aircraft, which also happened with the Syrian L-39 today. 149/
150/
Turkey's Ministry of National Defence confirmed that 1 Turkish serviceman was killed and another 9 were wounded today. Some sources have said that these casualties were caused by a Tochka tactical ballistic missile. 151/
A couple of interesting points in this article by Alexey Nikolsky. He says that Russia and Turkey had an agreement that each other could use UAVs in Idlib for reconnaissance purposes, but not for launching air strikes. But Turkey broke this agreement. 152/
vedomosti.ru/opinion/quotes…
vedomosti.ru/opinion/quotes…
He also noted that the recent flare up highlights Russia's backwardness regarding UAVs since the Russian Armed Forces still doesn't have an armed UAV in service, so it has to rely on manned aircraft for airstrikes. 153/
Another video of today's Russian military police patrol along the M5 highway from Seraqib. Some of the MPs are equipped with new AK-12 rifles. 154/
vesti.ru/videos/show/vi…
vesti.ru/videos/show/vi…
Screenshots of those AK-12 rifles. 155/
There was an earlier report that Turkey had destroyed another Syrian Pantsir-S1 too. If true, I assume we'll see the UAV footage soon. Idlib is seeing the first sustained operation of UCAVs vs sophisticated air defenses, which will have important lessons.
Video reportedly of the Syrian Pantsir-S1 air defense system that was destroyed tonight in Seraqib. This is purportedly the 2nd Syrian Pantsir-S1 destroyed by Turkey in addition to 3 destroyed by Israel. 157/
t.me/sashakots/12586
t.me/sashakots/12586
Some quick analysis. 1st, the chassis on the Pantsir-S1 from this video and other video published by Turkey look different, and I still think the original is likely one of the UAE's Pantsir-S1 on a MAN chassis, instead of the normal KamAZ-6560 used on Syria's Pantsir-S1s. 158/
Unlike two of the Pantsir-S1s destroyed by Israel, both of these videos show Pantsirs with their radars on that appear to be searching for targets, so their destruction can't just be dismissed that the systems weren't in operation. 159/
The Pantsir-S1 in this video had the older rectangular radar, not the newer SOTS radar (Syria has both). Aside from the ~3 Syrian Pantsir-S1s destroyed by Israel, Russia's Pantsir-S1 have struggled against COTs UAVs, failing to stop an attack on Khmeimim Airfield on NYE 2017.160/
After the mass UAV attack on Khmeimim, Russia increased its defenses with a Tor-M2 9А331М system. According to some reports, the Tor-M2 was far superior against small UAVs than the Pantsir-S1, whose radar struggled with small targets and had false positives from large birds.161/
Of course, small COTs UAVs are different to large UCAVs like the Anka-S being used by Syria. Turkey has also deployed EW systems like the KORAL system, which Turkey has deployed to Idlib and could be used to interfere with a Pantsir's operation. 162/
As a result of its experiences in Syria, Russia is developing a newer variant called the Pantsir-SM, which will be better at tracking and engaging small, low-radar signature targets. When assessing the Pantsir's effectiveness, we don't have great data. 163/
One of the Pantsirs destroyed by the IAF failed to repel an Israeli missile, but the other two weren't in operation. So we have apparently seen videos of 3 operational Pantsirs get destroyed, but we don't have solid data about how many aircraft/PGMs they've defeated. 164/
But we do know that a large number of Turkish UAVs have been shot down in both Idlib and Libya. Reportedly, Turkey lost ~10 UAVs in Libya and Syria, each, over the last week. Hard to know how many were shot down by Pantsir-S1s, but they are in both areas. 165/
We only have fragmentary information, so I would resist strong opinions, but clearly the Pantsir-S1 has some weaknesses (all systems do), the Tor-M2 is likely a more effective system (it has better missiles), and the Pantsir-S1's replacement will go into production soon. 166/
