Details of the potential TUR-RUS deal on a ceasefire still unknown.
Acc. to press report, Pres. Erdogan told there was an agreement for a ceasefire in #Idlib starting at midnight.
It seems RUS and TUR have added a protocol to the one of May 2017 on Deescalation zones and to the one of September 2018 signed in Sotchi. New protocol has mainly three provisions : 1/ ceasefire 2/ security corridor 3/ joint patrol
1/ Ceasefire starting tonight. TUR and RUS said they wanted it to last but Pres. Erdogan said TUR would react to attacks from the regime.
3/ Joint TUR-RUS patrolling planned starting March 15th along highway M4 from the settlement of Trumba (2 km to the west of Saraqib) to the settlement of Ain-Al-Havr.
Having followed some of these “deescalation” agreements before, here are few early thoughts, knowing that we still don’t know much about today’s discussion between Pres. Putin & Erdogan:
1/ “Deescalation” is a bad word to describe short term deals often used by the regime to regain military strength before the next offensive. They allow a pause but don’t solve the issue. They just buy time.
2/ Joint patrols between have been on the ground an efficient way to freeze a conflict area or prevent escalation. It’s been also used in Northeastern #Syria by the US and TUR until 2019.
3bis/ When the patrols are joint and not coordinated, it means TUR and RUS literally patrol side by side. This requires a lot of trust and preparation.
4/ The big point of argument between TUR-RUS before the meeting was wether regime troops would accept to go back to the lines of the Sotchi deal (sept. 2018). At that time it was already about a security corridor like this one.
However, the regime has advanced significantly since May 2019. If you look at the map of Sept. 2018...(map from @lummideast). 
...and March 2020, you will realize the regime has advanced to Saraqeb. (map from @lummideast)
And when looking at what the security corridor announced today could look like...(the big points are Ain-al-Hour and Turunbah mentionned in today’s protocol, map from @lummideast).
It seems that the Russians have refused or not being able to push back the regime to the Sotchi line. This would mean TUR has accepted to stop its offensive to push back the regime while it has demonstrated military superiority in the last days. (Do you know the source of this?)
Conclusion: #Turkey doesn’t seem to get what it wanted from #Russia and based on past experiences the ceasefire is unlikely to hold for very long. Meanwhile last @OCHA_Syria update says 1m civilians displaced, more than 2.8m need huma aid and services on the ground can’t cope.
Here is the text of the new protocol. (Via @BASSAMVA)...
...one can only note that a large part of the provisions recalled in the first part have been violated in the last months/years (e.g. no targeting of civilians)
