Thread by @ejmalrai

A Putin-Erdogan meeting is expected once the military operation in #Idlib reaches its objectives and imposes the Astana agreement by force where Turkey failed to do so in more than a year over HTS, ak al-Nusra (former ISIS in Syria, former al-Qaeda in Syria) et al.

The Syrian Army is preparing a large offensive and Russia is very angry.

Dangerous combination in the next 24 hours.

33 Turkish officers killed and 36 wounded by a Russian raid on a Turkish convoy in rural #Idlib (#Syria) last night.

#Russia is replying to the Turkish supply of MANPADs to Jihadists, a very serious matter jeopardizing Russian pilots safety and a change of the Rule of Engagement

There are rules in every war not pronounced but agreed by friends and enemies. These rules are usually respected. The #US, during all nine years of war in #Syria, allowed a very limited supply of Chinese MANPADs to jihadists and stopped when #Russia moved into #Syria.

For example:
#Russia supplied #Syria with S-300 in response to the downing of the Russian Ilyushin IL-20 with 15 officers onboard in September 2018. #Israel won't violate the Syrian air space and Russia won't use these missiles against its jet. Israel bombs Syria from afar.

If rules are violated in any war, the two belligerents go out of control and the conflict gets very ugly, like the killing of the 33 Turkish officers yesterday. That was a message for Turkey to recover and prevent Jihadists from using MANPADs against Russian Jets +

If Jihadists are allowed by #Turkey the use of MANPADs, Russia will increase its escalation and use more aggressive means (bombing) for the message to go through.

#Turkey is putting itself on the frontline and made a mistake but not respecting the Astana agreement for 16 months+

The relationship between #Russia and #Turkey are strategic: Russia tried to bring Turkey close and away from NATO. It has supplied the S-400 and augurated the Turkstream to reduce the use of #Ukraine as the main gas supplier to #Europe even if Turkey is an important NATO member+

#Russia was criticised by #Tehran and #Damascus for its indulgence towards #Turkey for a long time, not respecting the 2018 Astana agreement, Putin gave enough time to Erdogan to sort out his relationship with the Jihadists and convince these to leave #Syria or 'become moderate'+

However, it is time for the wider strategic relationship btwn the pact of China-Russia-Iran to push #US outside the Middle East.
It has started in #Iraq officially and will continue in #Syria no doubt because no country accepts its president to be a pirate stealing oil for long+

A couple of years ago, the priority was to push the #US out of #Syria. Now it has shifted to #Turkey because the US opened al-Hasaka and Deir-ezzour to #Russia and the Syrian Army and kept the oil.
Turkey's exit from Syria become a must because it is much easier to elbow the US.

When Erdogan moved on the Syrian-Turkish borders, it was an acceptable move because it has reduced the US influence.
Jihadists - as stupid & without any future or strategic objective - continued harassing the Syrian areas, giving #Russia the excuse to bomb the hell out of them+

Time has come to remove Jihadists from the M5&M4 & #Turkey was informed by #Russia of the intention.
Coz Turkey considered its relationship with Russia is important, it didn't take the Russian warning seriously and didn't see the bigger picture in #Syria and priorities shifting.+

#Russia started to free the M5/M4 with the Syrian Army and its allies. #Turkey asked the #US for Patriot missiles, wanted recognition in #Libya, supported #Ukrain and rejected the authority of Russia over Crimea. Erdogan though he has enough cards to stop Putin+

Now #Russia will push the bombing behind Jihadists lines. If these advance on any front, they will be most welcome and destroyed with no place to withdraw. The front along the M5 and M4 is crumbling fast.
#Idlib, sooner or later, will be recovered. It is game over+

Afrin will return to the control of the Syrian Army. #Syria and #Turkey (already respective delegations have met 5 times) will sit and modify the Adana agreement for the safety of Turkey.
Once Idlib and Afrin are liberated, the future of Turkey is Syria is almost over.+

#Kurds are talking to #Damascus in the capital and at Hmeymeen with the #Russian mediation. Kurds are aware the #US cannot continue stealing the Syrian oil forever and is pushed out of #Iraq. Kurds are trying to get more concessions. Even if the results are slim, it is happening.

#Turkey is asking a No-Fly-Zone over #Idlib, a request that will not be met because it falls in the area under the Russian control: what is east of the Euphrates under the #US and West of the Euphrates under #Russia.
#Mosscow will never allow Turkish Air Force to cross #Syria+

#Turkey cannot cherry-pick when it calls for NATO members to intervene and when not. Turkey bought the S-400 from Russia, putting itself under NATO-IUS blackmail request to Erdogan: give up on the few billions you have spent on your Russian missiles and move away from Russia 1st+

#Turkey is again using the refugee card against #Europe, sharing a video on Syrian refugees heading towards #Greece. This old rabbit taken out of Erdogan's hat won't always work: nobody is willing to protect the jihadists even if they are hiding behind Syrian civilians in #Idlib+

After all, no Syrian refugees, Internally displaced or "last school/last hospital" in Saraqeb or along the M5 and M4.

It is a question of removing #Turkey from #Syria or not. That is the battle now.

If Turkey loses this war, it is a ticket out of Syria, starting from #Idlib.

I end here with one final point:

There is no intention to liberate #Idlib now, in this Syrian Army's military push. The operation is to clear the M5 and M4 and secure a large security perimeter to protect it and prevent jihadists incursions.

This is the wrong approach. You can't compare the effectiveness of the Saudi, Emirati, Syrian or any other Army to a NATO country like #Turkey.

The Syria Army is far from being decimated. This old narrative belongs to 2015 not today.

https://twitter.com/Dannymakkisyria/status/1233333603221876737

#Russia is constantly supplying the Syrian Army (SAA) with weapons, modernising its arsenal & effectiveness. SAA is gathering experience no army in the world dreams off: ISIS, AQ, & rebels supported by 80 countries.

SAA is fighting along with a superpower & a quasi-state actor.

In #Syria, the Russian Air Force is an essential element in liberating the country but cannot free one single city without infantry. It is a coordination of activities in the air and on the ground.

To those asking:

I think this 'incident' between #Russia & #Turkey in #Syria is behind us now. No escalation and no interest for any party to escalate.

Turkey should have asked Jihadists to clear the M5/M4 long ago and be more firm with ex-ISIS/AQ Emir Abu Mohamad al-Joulani