Thread by @mariliacout

1. I'm sorry I'm not updating my pandemic-explanation threads - time is also a limited resource. A small comment for today. Observe the fatality rate numbers:
China: 4.0
Italy: 12.3
Spain: 9.4
United Kingdom: 10.2
USA: 2.6
World: 5.3

2. As epidemiology primary sources have been emphasizing, the R0, the fatality rate and even the incubation period are not static indicators. The WHO has calculated SARS-Cov-2 fatality rate in about 3.4.
Let's have a look at the total case curves.

3. These are the respective total case curves (not to be mixed with the new cases curve, which is always a bell curve):

4. China's plateau curve corresponds the the fatality rate closest to the expected 3.4 value. Transmission is practically controlled but there will be still people dying from the disease for a while.

5. Italy, Spain and the UK are still experiencing a lot of transmission but the deaths/day curve is the determinant factor. They are experiencing what has been wrongly called the "peak" of the disease.

6. Despite the notorious sub-notification of cases and deaths in the US, it is certainly the worst scenario: the deaths/day curve hasn't even started to rise and the new cases/day is at its exponential phase.

7. China never reached such high fatality rates because of the extremely strict containment strategy. It looks like the US will experience a flood of dying people at the hospitals during the following months. It also seems it will last much longer than expected.

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I'm sorry: twitter swallowed some images. Here is the source:
arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo…