Do you believe #markets are #cyclical in nature?
Do you think #history #rhymes, if not #repeats?
Do you agree #greed and #fear are two main forces in the market?
If answer of above Q's is yes then following tweets will solidify ur view if its a no then they will change ur view.
Above is a monthly chart of #Sensex. It goes through an alternating #greedandfear cycle of 8 years. Sensex moves up in greed phase and consolidates in fear phase. It was up 469% in greed phase of 1992. was up only 20% from 1992 to 2000. From 2000 to 2008 it was up 271%.
In fear phase of 2008 to 2016 it was up only 48%. #Sensex has entered greed phase in 2016 and will stay there till 2024. So far its up more than 50%. But the story doesnt end there. The sectors which move up during these phases also go through a cycle.
Old economy stocks move up in greed phase. These are companies catering to the basic needs of #Roti, #Kapda aur #Makaan.

New Age stocks move up in fear phase. These are technology related companies. Here's a list of stocks which moved up the most during these phases.
1992 – #Cement and #Textile
2000 – #IT, #Media and #Telecom
2008 – #Power, #Realty and #Infra
2016 – #HousingFinance, #Pharma, #Consumptionstocks, #PrivateBanks
2024 – Its back again to the old economy, #brick and #mortar businesses

Have you started seeing a pattern yet?

Check these charts and decide for yourself. I have plotted them just like #Sensex chart above. The returns are point to point returns over 8 year period.
#HarshadMehtas Favourite - #ACC
The returns calculated for greed phase of 1992 are from 1990 since earlier data is not readily available. But look at the way it moved. Mind boggling isn't it?
Here's another favourite from #1992 - #Centurytextile
#Metals is a cyclical story. Here are two examples. #Vedanta and #Hindalco
#TataChemicals If you have not noticed so far then all the above companies are or once were a part of #Sensex
#Reliance #RelianceIndustries #RIL is a company which has transformed over the years...always changing and adapting with the changing times. During 1992 it was a #textile company, in 2008 it was an #OilnGas company and in 2024 its more of a #tech or #data company.
The 8-Year #Greed and #Fear #Cycle could helps you identify what stocks to buy when. But its not as simple as buying any old economy stock in greed phase. Here are some companies which are probably failures.

Look at #AbanOffshore. It gained a whooping 100109% between 2000-2008.
Aban was a dream stock in previous greed phases but it seems like a forgotten story now. Its the same with #Relinfra and #Relcapital.

There are two things which one must note
1. Companies fail over time due to ineffective management, poor finances, failure to adapt etc.
2. Human needs change over time.

Old economy stocks generally cater to basic needs.
New Age stocks tend to cater to psychological needs.

These needs evolve over time. Mobile phones were a status symbol back in the 1990's. Its a basic necessity now.
#Oil was the fuel which kept economies running but now its slowly being replaced with #data. Companies like #Google #Facebook and #Amazon are the kings in the market today.
So start looking at sectors which are fulfilling the basic human needs right now to identify multibaggers.
Thats how u could use the #greedandfear cycle to identify multibaggers. You can watch my detailed videos on the same and even read transcripts on this link.

Hope you enjoyed this thread. Thanks

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More from @apurvansheth

28 Sep
Have you ever felt that you have lived the present situation before? Its called #Déjàvu. Right now I'm experiencing this moment in the markets. #PSUBanks are going through tough times. But this isnt new. They were in a similar situation back in 2016. (1/n)
#PSUBanks were dealing with NPA's and losses in Mar 2016. Their troubles are amplified after the #COVIDー19 outbreak. But it seems worst is over. Here's a weekly chart of #NiftyPSUBank index. (2/n) ImageImage
#PSUBanks are forming bullish divergence in #RelativeStrengthIndex(RSI) on weekly charts. #RSI is a momentum indicator. Bullish divergence in it indicates that ongoing downtrend is losing steam. It doesnt guarantee a reversal but increases the chances. (3/n) Image
Read 12 tweets
31 Aug
#Market #breadth is weak despite 100 point gap up in #nifty...quite unusual considering the recent rally in broader markets👀 Lets see if it catches up during the day
#Humptydumty #nifty had a great this the #top?
Declining stocks outweighed advances early in the day this was an indication of things to come.

#advancedecline #nifty #triplecentury Image
Read 5 tweets
28 Aug
I believe #ratio #charts are one of the most underrated and underutilized tools in #technicalanalysis. Do you agree?
Ever wondered which stock to chose between the two?

#HDFC or #HDFCBank?
#TCS or #Infosys?
#HeroMoto or #BajajAuto?
#ACC or #Ambuja?
#BajajFinserv or #Bajajfinance?

But don't know whats the best approach to pick one?
#Ratio #charts can help you identify the best stock for #trading and #investment. You can plot a #ratiochart by dividing the price on one stock with another. Its preferable to divide the high priced stock with low priced one to get ratios greater than 1.
Read 13 tweets
6 Jul
I am building up on the concept of #RTM shared by @heartwon in this post -

#RTM = Short-Term Mvng Avg (5DEMA) / Longer-Term Mvng Avg (20 DEMA)

He adds another #RTM: 4 Week EMA / 12 Week EMA on the #charts to get a holistic view
So the two #RTM's work like a MACD except that an #MACD plots the absolute difference between 2 mvng avgs. But since we are dividing one avg with another in #RTM we can use it to compare one stock with another which we cant do in a MACD.
I have applied the concept of RTM on F&O stocks and come up with some insights. If the daily #RTM value is above the Weekly #RTM value then I define the trend as bullish. Then I calculate the difference between Daily and weekly #RTM's across F&O stocks. Image
Read 6 tweets
13 Jun
My friend @VMK100 sent me this insightful short note on mental fitness for traders by @normanhallett. I'm summarizing the points worth learning in this thread for the benefit of #trading community. Image
1. You've got a superb why are you losing?

You are not in control of your #emotions.
2. Why are you not able to limit your losses and let your profits run?

You have been taking the losing personally which doesn't allow you to take losses.

It’s not about YOU. It’s about THE MARKET. If you don’t take your emotions out of it,
you don’t have a shot.
Read 20 tweets
26 May
Introducing the #T20list

This list covers #CNX500 stocks but excludes F&O stocks from the study

stocks at new 20Day highs or lows suggest range #breakout

20Day volume gainers indicate #action

top 20Day % gainers & losers suggests #momentum Image
#Locustsattack could lead to a #bounty for #agrochemical companies

Smaller #cement stocks are gaining interest. Watch out.

#stockstowatch #howtotrade #trading #T20list

My video on how the #T20list can help traders identify #stockstotrade
Read 9 tweets

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