As we head into the U.S. #election, there will continue to be a lot of noise that may lead to near-term #market#volatility, particularly since (as we’ve long argued) #markets appear to be able to only focus on one thing at a time!
Still, at times like this it’s crucial to focus on more consequential factors that will drive #markets in the years ahead: in this case, the powerful combination of @federalreserve#monetarypolicy and #fiscal rescue measures intended to keep the #economic engine on track.
So, while many will continue to be skeptical of the sustainability of this #economic recovery, we’ve been impressed by its strength, particularly in the #interest-rate-sensitive segments of the #economy, like #housing, which is going through the roof!
Indeed, on Tuesday we saw both single-family #housing starts and #building permits move higher, led by an 8.5% increase in starts in Sept. and a 7.8% gain in permits, and with #permits higher than starts again that bodes well for further increases in the months ahead.
Added to this, existing #home sales spiked 9.4% higher in Sept., increasing for the fourth consecutive month, to 6.54M, with the single-family #housing segment up more than 20% over the year; the multi-family part of the market has looked weaker.
Fascinatingly, this surge in demand for #housing has met incredibly low #inventory levels, and of course extraordinarily low #mortgage rates, which has resulted in an impressive near 15% gain in median sales #prices year-over-year in Sept.
Finally, while #housing is clearly one area that is displaying remarkable strength, the #inventory story displayed there is also present in other #sectors of the #economy.
Indeed, as #retail sales surge, both retail and #industrial sector #inventories appear low, suggesting that if aggregate #demand can be maintained the #economic recovery likely has solid legs into 2021.
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Many #investors will be focusing on the #PresidentialDebates, which begin tonight, but while there are quite meaningful #policy differences between the parties, ongoing structural #deficits are likely to exist regardless of who wins in November.
Further, to the extent that these #deficits are #monetized by the @federalreserve, then significant increases in #money supply could drive nominal #GDP growth for a time, even in the absence of new fiscal initiatives.
Also, we’re skeptical of the arguments that fret over a #FiscalCliff, since the @USCBO estimates that even with no further #stimulus measures, the U.S. will have a #deficit of 8.5% of #GDP for fiscal 2021.
The #FOMC today began the process of “operationalizing” the average inflation targeting framework that Chair #Powell first laid out in his Jackson Hole, WY, Economic Policy Conference speech: including new guidance on how long #policy rates can be expected to remain near zero.
Specifically, policy #rates will remain at current levels “until #labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum #employment and #inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.”
Still, we’re skeptical about the achievability of this #inflation goal when the #disinflationary influences of technological #innovation and the #demographic trend of #population aging arguably hold a greater impact on the rate of inflation than central bank #policy does.
.#ConsumerPriceIndex data for the month of August revealed further recovery - like a lot of #macro data in recent months: core #CPI (excluding volatile food and #energy components) came in at 0.4% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year.
Overall, we think 2020’s broadly #deflationary influences may well lead to somewhat higher rates of #inflation by mid-2021, yet importantly, we do not expect this to reach excessive levels.
Those fearing increasingly greater risks of high #inflation stemming from #crisis rescue measures are misguided, in our view, and underestimate the continued secular headwinds to excessive #price increases…
A tremendous amount of ink has been spilled discussing the supposed quandary of the #equity market’s robust recovery since March, while at the same time #economic improvement has been more uneven and uncertain.
At the heart of this misunderstanding is an apples-to-oranges comparison: the fact is that the #stock#market and the #economy, while connected, are two meaningfully distinct entities.
As a case in point, the correlation between domestic corporate #profits and #GDP#growth collapsed in the 1990s and has hovered near zero for the past three decades.
Encouragingly, this morning’s #JobsReport witnessed not only solid job gains, with 1.37 million #jobs added, but also a drop in the #unemployment rate to single digits, at 8.4%, which is a psychologically meaningful threshold to breach.
Still, great perspective is required when situating this #data in proper context. The #unemployment rate is still resting too close to double digits, and many #businesses will not recover their footing for years to come, if ever.
Additionally, the sectors of the #economy that were responsible for much of the past decade’s #job gains (travel, #leisure and entertainment) will be slower to come back and may be years away from recovering.
The @federalreserve’s #JacksonHole Policy Symposium has typically been thought of as an event of #academic contemplation, rather than of active #policy innovation, but 2020’s event proved to be the exception to the rule.
That’s because #Fed#ChairPowell surprised many by introducing the #FOMC’s Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, which was not expected until later in the year.
In many respects, the Strategy statement represents a mirror image to the #Fed’s stance more than a generation ago, in August 1979, when Chair Paul #Volcker took over leadership of the central bank…