Thread by @Aryan_warlord

Looks like #western & #Australian analysts are finally waking up to what I've been publicly stating here for the last two weeks .
#Kiev & #Kharkiv are distractions , the real game is in #southeastern #Ukraine .
news.com.au/world/europe/r…

In the Southeast sector #Russia has no #logistics problems with supplies getting trucked in via the DPR & LPR .If anything the #Ukrainian forces stuck here have logistics trouble with supply lines stretching to #Lviv nearly 1200km away ,nothing is getting out of #Kiev ,#Kharkiv .

To their credit #Ukrainian forces seem to have Prepositioned significant ammunition , troops & equipment in hardened dispersed storages in the east which they're using to fight on .
Of late #Russians have been Targeting these stores unerringly.

As earlier the Russian MOD map shows their plans well . They locked in the bulk of Ukrainian troops in defence of #Kiev ,#Kharkiv ,#Mariupol, #Odessa with Ukrainian reserves protecting the western sector .

They are now using crack urban warfare units from #Chechnya #Ossetia the DPR & LPR to take each city one by one while artillery from the main Russian forces bombards & softens targets . This is how they took #Kherson #berdyanskv & #Melitopol . Reports suggest #Mariupol as well .

The #Russians have used the oldest trick in the book here
"Divide & conquer" They've parcelled out the ~445,000 strong Ukrainian active & reserve forces ( not counting militia & "volunteers") into manageable portions. Yes this means slow painful progress . They've planned that

The only way for #Ukraine to break the "cordon sanitaire" being thrown around the entirety of their Eastern forces is with #NATO airpower . Here again #Russia has planned for that with no more than a few squadrons of over 3500 active combat aircraft & helicopters deployed now .

Any NATO intervention will likely bring in the bulk of the aforementioned RuAF forces into play . It would be a bloodbath with aircraft getting shot out of the sky from both sides & the ever-present risk of a full scale NATO Russia conflict . Something Brussels doesn't want .

The writing on the wall is clear ,#Putin has nearly achieved all #military goals of the #Russian federation & is moving quickly to ensure a long term geopolitical goal of the partition of #Ukraine into Eastern & western halves with Russia alinged govt in a new #Novorossiya .

#Putin is well aware that he's a painted man now & the #US President #JoeBiden has effectively ended any hopes of a reconciliation with the #WarCriminal charge . He is a man with his back against the wall 6000+ nukes & nothing more to lose .

Note the public deployment of 203mm Malka tactical nuclear capable #artillery followed by what looked like a #nuclear evacuation exercise by the RuAF yesterday. #Putin is letting the world know that if pushed he will use #nuclearweapons . Very pertinent signalling there .

Nobody in #WashingtonDC or #Brussels will intervene . They have cities , luxuries & wealth to risk/lose if they do . Putin has nothing left to put on the line .The west made a strategic mistake by opening all it's cards on day one . It simply has nothing more to play with .

#Russian TV & Chinese TV are running public broadcasts from Melitopol, Kherson , Berdyansk & even Mariupol . We in India can see both sides of the coin clearly without censorship.
You've been cut out of a complete picture & hoodwinked mate !

https://twitter.com/DanielPapineau1/status/1504721359439552514?t=09IpjCU7EeOT9jLsuom_3g&s=19

Guess what the USA did in Iraq ,Syria & even Afghanistan against far smaller adversaries who were without outside support . Guess who lost & withdrew from all three theaters in the last decade ?

https://twitter.com/ryaner78a/status/1504721921216241681?t=44PsUjaAKa2QV8AwJPiNkw&s=19

The goal seems to be using local forces raised from the #Donbass alongwith some crack #Russian units to hold the east . The region has a majority of ethnic Russians & pre war reports indicate the Azov ,Aidar etc didn't quite go well with Ethnic Russians.

https://twitter.com/pennyfleamarket/status/1504724502042791936?t=44PsUjaAKa2QV8AwJPiNkw&s=19

Further on this I've come to believe the western censorship of Russian media has as much to do with keeping their own population in the dark about ground realities in Ukraine as anything else .
No western politician wants to be seen as inept/incompetent .

https://twitter.com/Aryan_warlord/status/1504723315319263232?t=44PsUjaAKa2QV8AwJPiNkw&s=19

The very public floundering of the US forces in Afghanistan & subsequent public scrutiny has undoubtedly convinced western decision makers that the best course is to keep their people in the dark & blame failures on the Ukrainian side .
The Nobel is Zelensky's consolation prize!

The problem with a fighting retreat is again logistics. Why do you see so few Ukrainian trucks ,tanks ,APCs in the battle ? Where are Ukrainian helicopters ?
All destroyed. The infantry left is fighting Armor with man portable weapons & without resupply .

https://twitter.com/pennyfleamarket/status/1504736418190569473?t=dpUk0G5Q80wUsB8FiMHKAA&s=19

Poor sods have been left to die.

https://twitter.com/pennyfleamarket/status/1504744715258044420?t=2c8JPJN7rczAImwCky2PdA&s=19