Looks like #western & #Australian analysts are finally waking up to what I've been publicly stating here for the last two weeks .
#Kiev & #Kharkiv are distractions , the real game is in #southeastern #Ukraine .
In the Southeast sector #Russia has no #logistics problems with supplies getting trucked in via the DPR & LPR .If anything the #Ukrainian forces stuck here have logistics trouble with supply lines stretching to #Lviv nearly 1200km away ,nothing is getting out of #Kiev ,#Kharkiv .
To their credit #Ukrainian forces seem to have Prepositioned significant ammunition , troops & equipment in hardened dispersed storages in the east which they're using to fight on .
Of late #Russians have been Targeting these stores unerringly.
As earlier the Russian MOD map shows their plans well . They locked in the bulk of Ukrainian troops in defence of #Kiev ,#Kharkiv ,#Mariupol, #Odessa with Ukrainian reserves protecting the western sector .
They are now using crack urban warfare units from #Chechnya #Ossetia the DPR & LPR to take each city one by one while artillery from the main Russian forces bombards & softens targets . This is how they took #Kherson #berdyanskv & #Melitopol . Reports suggest #Mariupol as well .
The #Russians have used the oldest trick in the book here
"Divide & conquer" They've parcelled out the ~445,000 strong Ukrainian active & reserve forces ( not counting militia & "volunteers") into manageable portions. Yes this means slow painful progress . They've planned that
The only way for #Ukraine to break the "cordon sanitaire" being thrown around the entirety of their Eastern forces is with #NATO airpower . Here again #Russia has planned for that with no more than a few squadrons of over 3500 active combat aircraft & helicopters deployed now .
Any NATO intervention will likely bring in the bulk of the aforementioned RuAF forces into play . It would be a bloodbath with aircraft getting shot out of the sky from both sides & the ever-present risk of a full scale NATO Russia conflict . Something Brussels doesn't want .
The writing on the wall is clear ,#Putin has nearly achieved all #military goals of the #Russian federation & is moving quickly to ensure a long term geopolitical goal of the partition of #Ukraine into Eastern & western halves with Russia alinged govt in a new #Novorossiya .
#Putin is well aware that he's a painted man now & the #US President #JoeBiden has effectively ended any hopes of a reconciliation with the #WarCriminal charge . He is a man with his back against the wall 6000+ nukes & nothing more to lose .
Note the public deployment of 203mm Malka tactical nuclear capable #artillery followed by what looked like a #nuclear evacuation exercise by the RuAF yesterday. #Putin is letting the world know that if pushed he will use #nuclearweapons . Very pertinent signalling there .
Nobody in #WashingtonDC or #Brussels will intervene . They have cities , luxuries & wealth to risk/lose if they do . Putin has nothing left to put on the line .The west made a strategic mistake by opening all it's cards on day one . It simply has nothing more to play with .
#Russian TV & Chinese TV are running public broadcasts from Melitopol, Kherson , Berdyansk & even Mariupol . We in India can see both sides of the coin clearly without censorship.
You've been cut out of a complete picture & hoodwinked mate !
Guess what the USA did in Iraq ,Syria & even Afghanistan against far smaller adversaries who were without outside support . Guess who lost & withdrew from all three theaters in the last decade ?
The goal seems to be using local forces raised from the #Donbass alongwith some crack #Russian units to hold the east . The region has a majority of ethnic Russians & pre war reports indicate the Azov ,Aidar etc didn't quite go well with Ethnic Russians.
Further on this I've come to believe the western censorship of Russian media has as much to do with keeping their own population in the dark about ground realities in Ukraine as anything else .
No western politician wants to be seen as inept/incompetent .
The very public floundering of the US forces in Afghanistan & subsequent public scrutiny has undoubtedly convinced western decision makers that the best course is to keep their people in the dark & blame failures on the Ukrainian side .
The Nobel is Zelensky's consolation prize!
The problem with a fighting retreat is again logistics. Why do you see so few Ukrainian trucks ,tanks ,APCs in the battle ? Where are Ukrainian helicopters ?
All destroyed. The infantry left is fighting Armor with man portable weapons & without resupply .

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More from @Aryan_warlord

Mar 17
#china proposes
1) #India China Civilizational dialogue .
2) #India #China trade & investment forum
3) India China film forum .
#Chinese want #NarendraModi to visit #Beijing for BRICS in 2022 alongwith a trilateral between #XiJinping #Putin & #ModiJi

Imho while Civilizational dialogue, investment & film forums can proceed #narendramodiji should only share space with #XiJinping after Chinese pull back forces beyond finger 8 & return to status quo ante as in 2019.
That should be our minimum condition .
The Chinese foreign policy towards India has hitherto always been conceptualized ,finalised & implemented not by the Beijing MOFA but the PLA. We have a unique situation now with #XiJinping being the first president to directly command the PLA since #MaoZedong .
Read 4 tweets
Mar 17
In 1991 a referendum was held in what is now #Ukraine asking whether the nation should stay united with #Russia . The states in red had voted for #Russia & those in Green for the West .
Interesting to note the green circle of #Kiev in what is otherwise a red state. Image
They didn't . In 2014 the US organised a regime change operation called "maidan" . This was followed by a removal from office of all Pro Russian leaders . The pre Maidan President had to escape from Ukraine & take shelter in moscow.
Maidan itself was hijacked by Neo Nazi militia . The govt & security setup of Ukraine today is pretty linked to Neo Groups. Few dare vote against them .
Read 4 tweets
Mar 17
#mustread thread for anyone who wishes to understand #defence in depth & how #Finland is far more militarised & prepared as a society for war than even the #USA .
Much here that #India can imbibe especially in the #himalayas .
Much to learn here .
Imho this is what #India should pick up & implement .
1) Basic military training to all males 18+ in #Ladakh , #ArunachalPradesh,#Sikkim , #Uttarakhand & #HimachalPradesh .
2) Prepositioned places for demolition charges in all critical infrastructure.
3) Prepositioned stocks of small arms including ATGMs & Manpads that can be distributed if required .
4) Bunkers in all major & minor settlements alongwith vehicles for pre-planned escape routes .
Read 5 tweets
Mar 17
The "Integrated country strategy" with #SriLanka will likely be our template for #BharatVarsh as a union of #Indic civilization.
Interesting to note that instead of imposing ourselves we've let the #SriLanka govt outline the details of the integration process on their terms.
A detailed description of what they're looking at below . In essence seems to be much like a federation of union of states .Better for the people of both nations .
Russia went straight to Dand .
We try to stay between Saam & Daam use Bhedh if necessary as a measure of Dand .
Read 9 tweets
May 9, 2021
Dear @PMOIndia @MoHFW_INDIA #India is now manufacturing between 80-100Mn doses of #vaccine monthly or some 3Mn daily.
Would request to see if at least 30Mn-40Mn can be preferntially allotted to the 10 biggest cities by end May.
Will bring down positivity & caseload massively.
I've left 70Mn doses for all the other regions . Also consider that the majority of cases are concentrated in cities by simply vaccinating at least 50% of top ten cities we can control the number of cases quickly .
If we want to win this optics will have to be put aside .
Read 4 tweets
May 9, 2021
Question is what would #India spend on?
Did we have a successful vaccine ready prior to December 2020?
Answer is no.
The #USA gambled $16Bn on 7 vaccines in June 2020 . 3 succeeded, one in trials & 3 failed.
The #USA essentially lost $6-7Bn in the gamble.
Acceptable odds for us?
You make the mistake of thinking BB was successful in the first try . Dr Krishna Ella tried & rejected two prior vaccine designs before settling on Covaxin . Also covaxin needs BSL4 & BSL3 facilities so cannot be made everywhere.
Also other older facilities are being upgraded to BSL3/4 for Covaxin but these will come online in a few months from now , not before. Haffkine in Mumbai should produce Covaxin from December 2021, a facility in Odisha from June 2022 .
Read 11 tweets

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