Thread by @SonyKapoor

3 confessions from #ClimateActivists & #ClimateEconomists seeking to tackle the #ClimateCrisis

We were wrong

-2 promise apple pie & motherhood sans costs
-2 repeat solar PV cheapest form of power sans caveats
-2 dismiss any trade-off between climate & development

#Thread

Back in the day those, including me, who worked on many different versions of the #greendeal all focused on the win-win scenarios ... #greenjobs #greengrowth #justtransition etc. and tho the context has changed completely this win-win farming remains even in the year 2023

Had we mobilised on a war-footing back then, invested at scale, imposed #carbontaxes, innovated like mad & massively increased financial & technological support 4 developing economies to shun coal & adopt #renewables, the #greendeal may have worked, albeit not without real costs

But we didn't. Now no #energytransition #climateaction possible that won't be expensive, involve real politically-toxic trade-offs & be disorderly, even chaotic involving 1 step forward, 2 steps back & 2 steps forward 1 step back. No smooth orderly win-win transition possible now

When we wave our arms & say #solarpv #wind #renewables cheapest in 80%-90% of the world now as an expression of optimism & ease of transition, we are also being disingenuous & failing to mention that this is levelized costs over 20-30 years of project life with strong assumptions

These strong assumptions that there is no binding 1) capital constraint 2) liquidity constraint 3) foreign exchange constraint & 4) access to the grid is available as are 5) storage or peak generation to handle intermittency

mostly don't hold in emerging & developing economies

fact remains that most have crappy infrastructure, shoddy grid access, if any, little storage or peak generation capacity and a structural shortage of capital & liquidity and repeated fx crisis

for them, the higher upfront capital cost & bigger FX drain of #renewables is v hard

those of us pushing for #climatemitigation, which is essential, urgent & long overdue, are effectively asking #EMDCs to generate energy & electricity critical for any development primarily through #renewables which require much more of the one thing they most lack - capital & fx

this at a time when nearly 70 LICs and LMICs are flashing red & yellow in their @IMFNews debt sustainability indicators & have many competing demands on the very limited capital, liquidity & fx that they do have access to without us the rich #OECD economies offering much support!

Now the 3rd point. Yes, in the year 2100 there is no trade-off between #climate & #development especially since #EMDCs will bear the brunt of #climateimpact. But in any 5-10 year political & investment cycle the two pull in different directions given shortage of capital & fx so

the #development vs. #climate & more broadly #environment trade-off is very real, very difficult, and very present and it is experienced across almost all emerging & developing economies, including #G20India at all levels of governmental, business & individual decision-making!

Now that #EMDCs build any development or energy infrastructure, we want them to make sure that 1) #biodiversity is preserved/restored 2) no #nature damage takes place, & b #nature positive, if possible 3) resilience against climate impact. All these increase upfront capital costs

To recap, those of us wanting to urgently tackle #climatechange were wrong to 1) overpromise on the pluses and ignore the real costs & trade-offs of #mitigation 2) tout the attractiveness & cheapness of #renewables as self-evident 3) & ignore the climate vs development trade-offs

There is scant evidence we are acknowledging these wrongs, leave alone trying to set them right. Lip service to the now impossible 1.5 target continues, with little effort 2 back up the war-footing transformation of the economy it would require. This is dishonest & will backfire!

While progress on #renewables technology has been spectacular, the many steps from that to delivering the huge amounts of energy & electricity necessary for #EMDCs to develop, grow, or even meet the #SDGs, now widely ignored in favour of #climatemitigation are unfunded & ignored!

By the empty words they use, duplicitous policies they pursue & an abject failure 2 support #EMDCs through financing, trade, & technology transfer in following a more difficult & (upfront) capital intensive green development pathway the #OECD #EU is failing on #climatemitigation

the future of #climatechange #biodiversity & #natureloss will be decided not in the #EU or #OECD but in what #EMDCs such as #Indi do in pursuit of the development & growth they desperately need/deserve. In the #environment vs #development trade-off, they will choose development

Let me close this part of the thread by saying that a world where a large country such as #India reaches a resource intensity even 1/2 the level #China has today, is a world that will pass 2 degrees of warming & where #biodiversity loss & other planetary boundaries flash code red