-2 promise apple pie & motherhood sans costs
-2 repeat solar PV cheapest form of power sans caveats
-2 dismiss any trade-off between climate & development
Back in the day those, including me, who worked on many different versions of the #greendeal all focused on the win-win scenarios ... #greenjobs#greengrowth#justtransition etc. and tho the context has changed completely this win-win farming remains even in the year 2023
Had we mobilised on a war-footing back then, invested at scale, imposed #carbontaxes, innovated like mad & massively increased financial & technological support 4 developing economies to shun coal & adopt #renewables, the #greendeal may have worked, albeit not without real costs
But we didn't. Now no #energytransition#climateaction possible that won't be expensive, involve real politically-toxic trade-offs & be disorderly, even chaotic involving 1 step forward, 2 steps back & 2 steps forward 1 step back. No smooth orderly win-win transition possible now
When we wave our arms & say #solarpv#wind#renewables cheapest in 80%-90% of the world now as an expression of optimism & ease of transition, we are also being disingenuous & failing to mention that this is levelized costs over 20-30 years of project life with strong assumptions
These strong assumptions that there is no binding 1) capital constraint 2) liquidity constraint 3) foreign exchange constraint & 4) access to the grid is available as are 5) storage or peak generation to handle intermittency
mostly don't hold in emerging & developing economies
fact remains that most have crappy infrastructure, shoddy grid access, if any, little storage or peak generation capacity and a structural shortage of capital & liquidity and repeated fx crisis
for them, the higher upfront capital cost & bigger FX drain of #renewables is v hard
those of us pushing for #climatemitigation, which is essential, urgent & long overdue, are effectively asking #EMDCs to generate energy & electricity critical for any development primarily through #renewables which require much more of the one thing they most lack - capital & fx
this at a time when nearly 70 LICs and LMICs are flashing red & yellow in their @IMFNews debt sustainability indicators & have many competing demands on the very limited capital, liquidity & fx that they do have access to without us the rich #OECD economies offering much support!
Now the 3rd point. Yes, in the year 2100 there is no trade-off between #climate & #development especially since #EMDCs will bear the brunt of #climateimpact. But in any 5-10 year political & investment cycle the two pull in different directions given shortage of capital & fx so
the #development vs. #climate & more broadly #environment trade-off is very real, very difficult, and very present and it is experienced across almost all emerging & developing economies, including #G20India at all levels of governmental, business & individual decision-making!
Now that #EMDCs build any development or energy infrastructure, we want them to make sure that 1) #biodiversity is preserved/restored 2) no #nature damage takes place, & b #nature positive, if possible 3) resilience against climate impact. All these increase upfront capital costs
To recap, those of us wanting to urgently tackle #climatechange were wrong to 1) overpromise on the pluses and ignore the real costs & trade-offs of #mitigation 2) tout the attractiveness & cheapness of #renewables as self-evident 3) & ignore the climate vs development trade-offs
There is scant evidence we are acknowledging these wrongs, leave alone trying to set them right. Lip service to the now impossible 1.5 target continues, with little effort 2 back up the war-footing transformation of the economy it would require. This is dishonest & will backfire!
While progress on #renewables technology has been spectacular, the many steps from that to delivering the huge amounts of energy & electricity necessary for #EMDCs to develop, grow, or even meet the #SDGs, now widely ignored in favour of #climatemitigation are unfunded & ignored!
By the empty words they use, duplicitous policies they pursue & an abject failure 2 support #EMDCs through financing, trade, & technology transfer in following a more difficult & (upfront) capital intensive green development pathway the #OECD#EU is failing on #climatemitigation
Let me close this part of the thread by saying that a world where a large country such as #India reaches a resource intensity even 1/2 the level #China has today, is a world that will pass 2 degrees of warming & where #biodiversity loss & other planetary boundaries flash code red
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When #Russia attacked, policymakers faced a hard choice. What could we do to deter and dissuade #Putin short of a risky military confrontation between nuclear powers?
We primarily had large financial sanctions that front loaded the pain, ideally narrowly targeted towards Putin!
But in authoritarian Russia, where #Putin could potentially command any state-owned, oligarch or private assets for his objectives, any effective sanction could either be large, or be narrow (a few banks, Putin´s assets) but not both.
A lot of room to tighten the noose, of which cutting off #SWIFT is only one part
ALL #Russian banks, big and small, need blocking sanctions. This needs to include the Central Bank of Russia, mirroring the case with current sanctions that operate against #Iran, which has also been kicked off #SWIFT. Only humanitarian, medical & food import funds to be allowed!
The ONLY remaining reason the #EU countries are resisting cutting off #SWIFT and going as far as in the case of #Iran, which is what we need to do, is because we fear (know) #Putin will immediately cut off gas supplies.
Our need for #Russian gas and the #SWIFT issue inseperable
Admiration 4 journalists on the ground - stay safe
Understanding for #Russian citizens who did not want war
First we need to hang our head in shame. The US was explicit in intelligence readouts saying what has happened would happen. So it's not like we were not warned.
From early December onwards the playbook #Russia has followed was clearly laid out and this was brushed off lightly!
The unified stance of #EU member states, #NATO and the #US looked good, but only because we had been pathetic.
#Russia has been very successful in infiltrating western democracies.
Russian footprints all over, especially on the far right, right, and the @GOP especially #Trump
Accounting for exported emissions, #Norway has fourth highest per capita emissions in the world after Kuwait, Brunei and Qatar.
Much higher than Russia, USA, China, UK!
Norway also happens to be one of the richest countries in the world with a GDP per capita that is in the top 3 or top 10, depending on which ranking you look at.
In addition, it has an #OilFund with money in the bank worth more than 300% of GDP, the largest #SWF in the world.
We have a (temp) seat in the UN security council, fancy iourself as a major player in foreign affairs, have tried our hand at peacemaking with moderate success & are, on a per capita basis, one of the biggest contributors to development aid
In this reed boat made without the aid of any modern tools, #ThorHeyerdahl crossed the Atlantic making the journey of 5,200 km from Safi to Barbados in just over 50 days with a 7 man crew from 7 different countries in the year 1970!
I took the kids to learn about his adventures
In 1947 #ThorHeyerdahl and crew sailed from Perú to Polynesia, a journey of 6,900 km in 101 days on a craft made entirely of balsa wood! The wonderful #KonTiki museum in #Oslo where I took Darius and Irya yesterday has the original boats that made both journeys and is a must see!
The Fram sailed with Nansen on a drift over the Arctic Ocean 1893-96, with Sverdrup to the arctic archipelago - 1898-1902, and with Roald Amundsen to Antarctica for his South Pole expedition 1910-12.
The Fram is now exhibited in the #FramMuseum in #Oslo. The kids loved it!