Thread by @Melt_Dem

1/ a short thread on cyclical (short term) vs secular (long term) investing, and crypto

secular investment trends take a long time to play out, and are often driven by a paradigm shift / once in a generation event. @amazon $AMZN is a great example.

@amazon 2/ if you bought Amazon at its peak in 2000, you were out of the money for *seven* years.

Amazon was part of a cyclical trend in internet stocks in 2000.

however, over the last 20 years, $AMZN has been one of the best investments. secular > cyclical.

@amazon 3/ if we look at bitcoin investing, it follows the cyclical trend outlined by the brilliant @CarlotaPrzPerez in her book "technological revolutions and financial bubbles"

bitcoin is a secular investment (if you zoom out, up and to the right) that operates in cycles

@amazon @CarlotaPrzPerez 4/ instead of focusing on short term volatility (or a momentum trading), focus on your level of conviction around the *secular* trend for bitcoin.

would you want to be "long" bitcoin for 10 or 20 years? secular > cyclical.

not financial advice! DYOR 🙏 and stay safe.