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The union seems to be breaking in some places, bending in others. New Welsh poll shows 40% (of those who chose to give a response) would choose independence if Wales were part of the EU. Never mind Global Britain, there might not be a Britain at all if this keeps up.
However you slice the figures, the support for Welsh independence has seen a sustained increase in support in recent years, from somewhere around 10% to the mid 30s now. It is clearly part of the Westminster system discrediting itself in the minds of much of the public.
I suspect the figure also represents another plus of the Brexit process for the EU: it has seemed to vindicate the old nationalist argument that small states can be protected and have outsized importance as EU members. After the Greek crisis, that’s no mean achievement.
I don’t imagine Wales is going to leave the UK anytime soon, it’s far too immeshed for that and the political movement isn’t anywhere strong enough yet. However, the fact that Wales, the most integrated nation to England is feeling this way shows what pressure the union is under.
Moreover, if I were Labour, I’d be worried about this figure (from a separate but recent poll). Shows Labour supporters in Wales are more likely than average to support independence- 40% do.
They could be open to a persuasive nationalist pitch.
Scottish Labour, all over again?
They could be open to a persuasive nationalist pitch.
Scottish Labour, all over again?
But with #indyref2 fuelled north of the border, talk of a border poll in Ireland and even the Welsh dragon waking from a very long slumber, there can be no doubt that the Brexit project (and Westminster’s reaction to it) is massively weakening Britain as a multi-nation state.
Ironically, that might change once we are out of the EU. All depends on the reaction of the public. Do they think they’ve had enough political instability and stick to wherever we end up? Or do the Brexit years leave such a bitter taste that nothing is ever the same?
On the Labour support point, very striking that 44% of those who supported Lab in 2017 would support Welsh independence as part of the EU.
