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v. small sub sample - ICM had 55-64 year olds breaking 49:21 Con/Lab last week - so at least double in 3 polls so far ...

now 42:31 & no longer straight line -ve correlation between age & Lab vote.

Waspi effect? Half the poll taken after announcement icmunlimited.com/our-work/icm-v…
Answer is we don’t have the data, and never will have given subsamples of 200. But the fact that lab polled same on ICM (actually marginally higher) with 55-64 yo than 44-54 yo, breaking pretty solid pattern, makes it worthy of further investigation...
Labour WASPI offer, complete with personalised calculation website telling voters they are in line for 1000s is one of most extraordinary unfunded election interventions I’ve seen... whether voters see promise not costed in Labours formal document as credible, is the question...
Then theres separate fascinating question, worthy of own polling experiment, about extent to which an age demographic that is say disproportionately anti Labour /pro Brexit would risk that if it really meant pension compensation of this type...
Interesting convos on WASPI FB site
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Prediction time - turnout for GE2019...

Context:
GE2017: 68.8%
EURef16: 72%
GE2015: 66.2%
GE2010: 65.1%
GE2005: 61.4%

GE1923: 71%
Commons library turnout chart, by nation over past century...
Turnout in latest election across Europe... interesting variety...
Read 3 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Doing this story on #bbcnewssix and #bbcnewsten tonight with more from port/ shipping/ freight industry who are preparing changes for new Irish Sea trade checks from GB-NI, and rather exasperated by repeated denials that they will be needed...
NEW - despite denials on Irish Sea checks, shipping, freight, & ports preparing for them on exit from GB ... including routing freight thru ports with space and inspection facilities - such as Liverpool and Stranraer... and “pop up labs”
#bbcnewssix
bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
Conservatives acknowledge regulatory checks GB-NI, that build on existing checks (eg for animal imports at Larne)
- customs checks they say only apply to goods destined for RoI/EU (but what is at risk of this determined by EU/UK Joint committee)
- Alternative Arrangements help
Read 4 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Comparing the rather heroic Brexit timetables pushed by both main parties for #BBCnewsTen - from marginal Bedford last week. Also 51.8% Leave/ 48.2% Remain, as some of you asked for it...
The comparative Brexit 2020 calendars for Conservative and Labour plans... put on the side of a Bedford flower bed, naturally.

...a bit like an advent calendar but in reverse....
...one of UK foremost experts on Trade Policy, Alan Winters of @UK_TPO says that promising the above timetables in the public only really possible if Conservatives or Labour basically just accept what’s on offer from EU.. otherwise v ambitious to implement, no time to consult etc
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