UPDATE: On my way back from Lebanon. People there are shaking their heads as Trump still refuses to send congressionally mandated security aid. Lebanon may become the next Ukraine or Kurds.
Let me tell you how dangerous this moment is. It’s important and you need to know.
Let me tell you how dangerous this moment is. It’s important and you need to know.
The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) is the most popular, most important multi-ethnic institution in the nation. It helps hold the fractious country together. Abandoning the LAF is akin to giving up on Lebanon.
Today anti-corruption, anti-elite (inc Hezbollah) protests are erupting all over Lebanon. It’s an exciting moment. But Iranian backed Hezbollah is fighting back, confronting the young, often female led protest movement. The LAF is the only force that can protect the protesters.
If Trump cuts off support for the LAF, they can’t sustain operations, and either (1) Hezbollah will take over; or (2) Russia will replace us as the backer of the LAF. Both are awful.
Just like w the Ukraine aid, Trump has given Congress no reason for the funding hold. Some say he wants to cut off funding bc Hezbollah still has influence in Lebanon. This is true, but they have the least influence in the LAF, the counterweight to Hezbollah.
Cutting off LAF funding is the dumbest thing we could do if we are trying to weaken Hezbollah. As stopping Ukraine aid helped Russia, here the hold empowers Iran to step into the vacuum. And it could lead to the collapse of the country which would be a national security disaster.
The bottom line is simple: (1) in a way this is Ukraine again - it’s not legal for Trump to hold funding that Congress authorized; (2) whatever his reason, defunding the Lebanese military does the exact opposite of our policy goals, and signals another abandonment of a key ally.
