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Some interesting reports on COVID-19:

R0 determined to be around 2.6 (SD of 0.9) and CFR outside China between 1.2% & 5.6%, depending on statistical methods. (Inside Hubei, estimated around 18%!) It is early yet, so there is some uncertainty re numbers imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…
Another cruise ship update:

The Westerdam, the ship that was refused a dock in 5 countries even though it seemed to have no COVID-19 cases on board and was given harbour in Cambodia, delivered its first case of Corona virus, and case no. 22 for Malaysia

https://t.co/YnjcvQMMsk
And one more: ahoy 🛳

There are 285 COVID-19 cases among the passengers of the Diamond Princess. The US has chartered a flight to repatriate US citizens. They will be quarantined upon arrival home.

https://t.co/sccgIvEmEU
A very informative thread from a presser about the German outbreak. Well worth a read:

https://t.co/mPHmXQH8OK
This is a great analogy and also an explanation of why China did the world a huge disservice by suppressing the actual numbers of COVID-19 infections:

https://t.co/UEaiGHmR3a
A very informative video, in plain English, explaining concepts around the epidemic (@CoolCzech1 )

https://t.co/qKSNU58r3F
It is said that, because of the unreliability of numbers coming from China, the information being gathered regarding COVID-19 infections on the cruise ships is a very valuable tool & that these may more accurately reflect key data points about the virus.

https://t.co/xV77MD89bD
To illustrate the point about the cruise ships and their isolated populations: note the discrepancy in growth between cruise ship & other cases. Not sure how much the relatively cramped quarters aboard might play into this...

https://t.co/2q2TuVPfR7
... but it could also mean that we could statistically be looking at a wider spread in the countries that already have the virus, should one extrapolate these figures.
Something to keep in mind in our thirst for knowledge about everything nCoV:

https://t.co/J2YBv1VMfz
Another cruise ship update:

Diamond Princess quarantined off Japan now has 454 confirmed cases, with 19 in ICU

www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
A very interesting thread summarizing a study of COVID-19 numbers provided by Chinese CDC. (Link to study in thread)

https://t.co/qHjf7k3E7R
Virtue signalling was probably not the best idea:

https://t.co/14P0fVAiEQ
Some very worrying numbers coming from Japan:

https://t.co/obA6D7cRE6
A thread about a paper about the origin of SARSCoV2 👇🏽

https://t.co/8XZ4wF7tqn
A graph of incidences across China, showing a rather curiously coordinated ebb and flow of progression

https://t.co/MTVmd2Nwrl
Some more about those numbers from China:

https://t.co/wFeMFrRuc1
A nifty graph showing some rather substantial growth across Asia. The Chinese figures and those of Diamond Princess are not included here👇🏽

https://t.co/pLMGywtJEH
Two things about viral loads & being contagious:
1. nCoV is contagious in asymptomatic stage (you can spread the disease even when you’re NOT showing symptoms of being sick)

https://t.co/dq0B4dcvOU
2. Late stage infections showed a heavy viral load in anal swabs (meaning fecal-oral spread is a real & terrible risk.)

https://t.co/TMP5jRSvHS
Good news/Bad news:
1. We now know more about it
2. The old stuff won’t work

https://t.co/m8KOUd2YPS
I guess it’s official then:

https://t.co/ytku1HGpEL
Interesting thread 👇🏽

https://t.co/ecajAGwF1J
Some good news coming from Singapore 🇸🇬

https://t.co/94XKYH5jhR
Holy Toledo: South Korean cases almost doubled over 24 hours

https://t.co/bAWYynwNsB
Oh... poor woman...

https://t.co/gHKE6e6v63
A graph of epidemic growth in South Korea 👀

https://t.co/EjShFD6iTN
Speaking of rapid growth and government clampdown:

@dfinney16

https://t.co/X0aomw6Xu8
In orher news: China is still up to their shenanigans

https://t.co/xYqySi6fyO
Wew, lads... if this is what “situation under control” looks like, I have questions

https://t.co/SzpZEGH9iQ
Some less than great numbers from the MRC

https://t.co/Mnl506dJdE
Italy’s latest:

https://t.co/OqtFYsVZBv
It seems there really, REALLY is nothing happening in North Korea

https://t.co/uGncpYrChQ
An explanation for the suddenly high number in South Korea: they’ve just been on top of the outbreak and have been testing gobs of people

https://t.co/g3nC8zdtOX
Some news about US cases: seems around 6,000 people are self-isolating in California. Looks like CDC & HHS are looking to move the cruise ship people off of Travis AFB

https://t.co/lLlwjaZ2yj
And some news from Italy. Earlier today they had blocked and cordoned off two rail cars at a train station because of suspected COVID-19 cases on board.

https://t.co/5oUfVd4x5r
A video comparing the growth of COVID-19 with SARS (red line) and some other epidemics:

https://t.co/pBjWCqZFAq
The 6th COVID-19 case in BC, Canada is a woman who returned from Iran after a trip in January. She was not identified at the airport and would not have been picked up with current screening protocols in the US.

https://t.co/z7K8H4kT81
Some epidemic preparedness from the Chinese Disease Control SWAT team: they are practicing the capture & containment of rogue disease carriers 😬

https://t.co/RrT5u9isfy
South Korea has been rigorously testing their population to identify & isolate COVID-19 cases. Their response is exemplary. It also puts into question responses of other govts if taken in context w hypothesis that ⅔ of cases exported from 🇨🇳 were missed

https://t.co/lUqdHiTJ1I
Italy is looking rather grave:

https://t.co/wqiQWScSFL
Confined populations seem fertile ground for COVID-19: Diamond Princess, Chinese prisons, South Korean outbreaks of the church group & hospital (see numbers)

https://t.co/Bs5VgFQJiL
Iran turned into an overnight hotspot. One has to just love the way totalitarian governments have treated this (yes, severely looking at you, China & North Korea too)

https://t.co/sWcenE5P7d
Watching the SF/Bay Area with some trepidation. The “hundreds” is actually around 6,700 👀

sfchronicle.com/bayarea/articl…
Worth noting:

https://t.co/83FKcR0k2L
A great thread 👇🏽

https://t.co/xJJtq7Tqvb
Just moving this here:

https://t.co/wO5VvEtF8U
WHO numbers update:

https://t.co/tUSHhUWlBl
Something to remember when countries “suddenly” show cases of COVID-19: they’ve been around & spreading for a while prior to being picked up.
The ⅔ number of cases exported from China going undetected? Some of those (or their consequences) are showing up
https://t.co/kVX6kY6am4
Speaking of Iran:

https://t.co/0gjgShPfUh
Due to China’s insistence on saving face in this outbreak, the window of opportunity to limit the scope of it has closed. Community transmission in 28+ countries proves this. Focus now has to shift to mitigation

https://t.co/bbTkkIGyzM
Because even in dire times, the important things need mentioning 😆

https://t.co/qDLtRZYBEx
US travel advisory to Hong Kong is upgraded

https://t.co/0GTpoAp3WP
South Korea cases keep rising

https://t.co/QW1dAqQcwp
Some news from China

https://t.co/DiXZZqlv0M
Don’t forget to wipe down your phones, whether you are a healthcare worker or not. It seems only prudent 😬

mdedge.com/infectiousdise…
There is still a lot of unknowns re COVID-19: important ones are incubation period & transmission.

China’s refusal to acknowledge the problem at an early stage has put the rest of the world very far behind this particular curve

https://t.co/sqmn1VyPeR
The numbers from Italy: both infected and ratio of critically ill are worrying.

Props to the government for realizing the severity of the situation & trying to contain the outbreaks locally, with minimal info re patient 0.

https://t.co/fRf2uSgUa0
Maybe one day someone would figure out what’s happening in China. The truth is bound to make some interesting reading

https://t.co/np3DoIoXwS
Israel is taking the threat of COVID-19 seriously

jpost.com/Israel-News/So…
North Korea being North Korea:

https://t.co/7wCSKxUFD2
Italy is the worst outbreak of COVID-19 outside of China

https://t.co/OuHxnRT21c
Turkey & Pakistan close their borders with Iran;

https://t.co/loS854BPPz
COVID-19 by the numbers:

https://t.co/vOOVm4nuUp
The probable reason why the US isn’t picking up more cases is only 4 states are actually testing for it. Reason why S Korea has been so successful is they have capacity to test 10,000/day & policy to screen all flu-like illnesses testing negative for flu
https://t.co/QUA37G2klu
Holy cow: Italy cancels Venice carnival because of Corona virus

https://t.co/Xc1VGbn5Ly
Seems this thing really, really likes confined spaces & captive audiences

https://t.co/DlTRvZyDSS
An interesting article about mitigation and preparedness:

virologydownunder.com/past-time-to-t…
Seems the numbers inside China are rising again. Not sure if the “dip” was actual or just some creative number buggery by the Chinese, but here we are:

https://t.co/6pAQylUIcN
Determining reliable statistics on any epidemic needs input of reliable numbers. Attack rate, incubation time, R0 & others are important in predicting how far & fast this would spread. There is low global consistency/reliability in any of these currently
https://t.co/dx8uGxFjjk
Actual case numbers vs trend lines:

https://t.co/KNiG0ZHJeK
At risk of sounding like Alex Jones: don’t expect your governments to have things under control/have any of your personal best interests at heart. When SHTF you & your fam will most likely be at the bottom of whatever list they’re working from. Be prepared
https://t.co/Ffsn2KuZma
What’s life if you can’t laugh at your troubles?

https://t.co/Yojh6BOdlz
A visual summary of the Diamond Princess numbers:

https://t.co/VnKkuS3iv4
Some good points re South Korea & more accurate numbers for COVID-19

https://t.co/NnfrwfJhNL
+1 for Canada. Would be nice to know if local transmission or imported

https://t.co/YxMqnvTfKn
Some brainiac links to research papers regarding 2019 nCoV. These are all free to read. The volume of knowledge available is amazing. Kudos to all who produce these 👌🏽

https://t.co/aQW5nA7lKT
Bahrain reported their first case: a traveller from Iran

https://t.co/83OWcLC5d8
South Korea has been doing a tremendous job finding infected and contact tracing. I think they have the most accurate numbers on COVID-19 as far as attack rate, CFR & others to form a decent statistical picture

https://t.co/zLAdFZUcgs
Italy is getting hit hard. Would be interesting to know who their patient 0 was, but I’m not sure it’s possible to find him/her anymore

https://t.co/g2ahfqXTNa
Taking a leaf from the Chinese playbook, the WHO is now no longer calling this a pandemic, instead opting to play a semantics game with phrasing & acronyms.

Solid move.

https://t.co/tcmO9KwlPJ
Italy is still looking grim. Knowing the incubation period would at least have given a bit more of a handle on this beast. It still all comes down to China not being forthcoming with their actual numbers from the get-go.

https://t.co/ltbEhhdKTi
Some updated numbers on COVID-19:

https://t.co/7kjai7Km3C
Things in Iran aren’t looking great. Doubt their government would admit really how bad it is.

https://t.co/s66HiIYApc
A great thread explaining nicely what I’ve been talking about elsewhere: why countries are so far behind the curve when they only notice COVID-19 infections once people are sick enough to seek medical attention or dying: @PintSizePolemic

https://t.co/jtD58zJxnb
These are numbers from China, so take them as you wish.

But welp... the only bright spot seems to be that the majority of cases are very mild to mild.

https://t.co/RrTAeLlkpF
Comparison of early numbers from China with corresponding time frame in Italy:

Cases tested, by country. Note the relatively low numbers from Canada & US.
https://t.co/XCY14jCLpH
US cases jumped to 53 today. 18 of new dxs from repatriates from Diamond Princess.

https://t.co/duNdDKqOt5
Iran seems to have a new export:

https://t.co/3YdEVF82k7
Comparisons of first 45 days across hotspot countries:

https://t.co/TMVzlrcZ4p
A great thread about cultural & political impacts of epidemics like Ebola and now COVID-19. This is applicable across all cultures, even the current North American ones 👇🏽

https://t.co/UsS7GZ05jL
Johns Hopkins has an interactive map & COVID-19 tracker. It’s an amazing tool. Kudos to these kind people

https://t.co/fw0qBKw3Rl
And just like that, BC has 7 cases now:

680news.com/2020/02/24/new…
COVID-19 by the numbers, 25 February

https://t.co/dzW4VbUyik
Iran confirms 34 new cases, for a total of 95 with 15 dead. They are either missing a ton of infections or not acknowledging the whole picture. Their deputy health minister tested positive. He’s the guy having a tough time on this video 👇🏽

https://t.co/RPhpKw9TJC
Austria confirmed their first cases today. The rail stoppage with Italy of a few days ago was too little, too late. Croatia also confirmed their first case

https://t.co/wCyF3JhYl3
Knowing what we seem to know about this thing, I’m going to hazard that COVID-19 is rampant across the Middle East already. It just either has not been picked up/not officially recognized. Effective health care in the region is bound to be challenging

https://t.co/hFpfL37qL8
Zeit Online warns of a Europe wide outbreak

Great... expect China's numbers to trend upwards again if this is true. Totalitarian governments don't seem to realize the virus won't listen to decrees & ultimatums. China & Iran are great examples for this

breitbart.com/national-secur…
Tenerife, Italy? What is the situation in Greece? These places are hotspots for “refugees” from Africa.

What are the chances that this is where their outbreaks originated?

https://t.co/jxiJnEmNpW
Aylward’s presser raises more questions than it answered
-High incidence in HCWs result of community transmission?!
-So China’s problems disappeared seemingly overnight with effective measures? Did he even see the size of the curve & global trajectory?

https://t.co/izk4i3RJP8
No data, or none made available?

https://t.co/RyZKcfW28d
And some more from the WHO briefing:

https://t.co/p16xXNRYaF
There are crazies everywhere, it seems 😶

https://t.co/mTdBWTYcyN
Yet another gem from Bruce Aylward: Yes, other countries too can do what China did! It’s not like human rights may be an issue, LOL.

https://t.co/4KSJjRIJ2Q
Italy is +91 for TODAY

https://t.co/C4xgjJowC3
CDC has some guidelines for Americans. I think it prudent for Canadians to follow too, since we are getting no guidance from our government, other than warnings to not be racist:

https://t.co/y1sMzCIHSr
Italy is exploding

https://t.co/gAiCW9CYmx
Some more info on US CDC recommendations:

statnews.com/2020/02/25/cdc…
Sen Kennedy: bless your heart, but it’s not up to government to provide for every citizen.

https://t.co/kms9RvfmIc
Audio from today’s CDC teleconference 👇🏽

https://t.co/3dJtqbK0b7
My take? US Govt is taking a good stance on this, balancing national safety & human rights with seriousness of outbreak. They’re asking citizens to prepare in a prudent fashion instead of locking down. They’re trying to mitigate inevitable disruption

https://t.co/m22V69yeri
The fact that government has the means to handle an outbreak does NOT absolve Joe & Jane Citizen from responsibility of applying measures to assist in curbing the spread. Stop trying to blame this administration & see that you are being asked to look out for you & yours.
This thing is long past containment anywhere & it is unfair to expect it of your government. There is much still unknown about this. Trust that this administration is trying to preserve your freedoms too & do what you can to stay out of trouble

/rant
Extrapolations predicting the spread & impact of COVID-19 in Iran:

https://t.co/tFwCxFInPF
Rumours of COVID-19 in Iran’s prisons. Judging by the outbreak in S Korea’s prison, this is not good news. Also an indicator of a wider than acknowledged spread in general population?

https://t.co/z4e4IPIx2m
Comparison of Italy’s current numbers with those from China a month ago: very similar
https://t.co/2VoNlpPvtA
Italy & Spain, Egypt, Algeria & Tenerife, Middle East: watch out for the rest of the Mediterranean to start lighting up soon.

https://t.co/mEzZ7VtPfG
TBF: Nancy Messonier also said current cases are contained & screening at points of entry has been successful SO FAR. Stated continued containment is unreasonable to expect, given porosity of border areas. So consistent, with more detail coming from CDC
https://t.co/XoV1B2GkjT
Updated figures for COVID-19:

https://t.co/jXnuoG6V39
Graph comparing first 45 days confirmed cases for 5 countries most affected. Note brown line on the left: Iran

https://t.co/ooCFBbot4z
Some solid advice from Dr Christopher Friese 👇🏽

https://t.co/94Nvxo7PS4
Another great thread by @kakape 👌🏽

https://t.co/Sm0Fl6ZJ96
Limiting public contact seems to be the most effective way to slow down/control the spread of COVID-19. CDC conference today said the same & to prepare for in case this becomes necessary.

https://t.co/GAEcPtXhq8
I have a feeling “virus-laden gaseous plume” would be a good name for a death metal band:

https://t.co/knOkNqDwDx
Brazil has confirmed its first case: a traveller returning from Italy

https://t.co/uzB5dKJaH8
TBH: he’s been in front of pretty much every camera he could find and has not worn a mask even once.

https://t.co/SurbVR5kAw
A nifty article with some preparedness tips and a couple handy lists to prepare for a period of quarantine 👇🏽

virologydownunder.com/so-you-think-y…
Now Chile has a fob of possible infections:

https://t.co/zBfUQrMCyY
Some info on detection via CT scans

https://t.co/O7MNj80EBK
A great thread explaining the concept of pandemic and the ramifications of the designation 👇🏽

The mid- afternoon Asia update:

https://t.co/FpzoUiICuL
Canada’s second confirmed case originating from Iran

https://t.co/mW3Bc6KebM
A handy list of all the maps & visual representations issued by CIDRAP. This is a very handy resource

cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/maps-…
An amazing article on how the South Korean church cluster was linked to Wuhan through contact tracing & a seriological test for antibodies developed by Duke. This test can retroactively determine if someone had COVID-19 by testing for antibodies

https://t.co/hZACVxJpeT
Feb 26 daily new case update. The red part of the graph shows the progression of cases in China (excluding Wuhan), the blue part shows cases worldwide

https://t.co/l0a3FFnMC9
International’s trade fairs: another angle that needs consideration, what with the ease COVID-19 seems to spread through populations:

https://t.co/slQAPfLezc
France reports the death of a patient that seemed to have contracted COVID-19 through local transmission:

https://t.co/GXKVfpHmqz
An article by the indomitable Ms @HelenBranswell regarding the WHO’s presser on COVID-19 in China.

statnews.com/2020/02/25/new… Image
Some great resources for COVID-19 preparedness for businesses 👇🏽

https://t.co/iishl0VEN2
Ladies & Gents: the horse has long left the stable. Please take personal responsibility when out in public as far as personal hygiene is concerned. You never know where the people you bump into have been

https://t.co/5l5F9zvGsL
IMO the rigorous testing in S Korea & on the 🛳 has done a lot more to determine attack rate & other stats for determining how nCoV will act “in the wild”. Infection rate is high (+70%?) so many people may have it, even tho asymptomatic, while contagious
https://t.co/3aIW1wecGG
Was this included in the calculations when the WHO said there were no undetected mild cases in China?

https://t.co/TzKmZ15JBd
Which was EXACTLY the message the CDC put out yesterday.

It would be so great if sensationalism & politics could be removed from the reporting on this pandemic

https://t.co/1pX7NHFaU7
Brazil, Georgia, Greece, North Macedonia & Pakistan all added their first cases today

https://t.co/Avr8kHIkBj
Level 2 travel restrictions for Iran & Italy: apply extra caution when travelling or avoid travel if your health is compromised

https://t.co/F3xATTlPTF
France: +1 new case, 2 dead, 18 total cases

https://t.co/pHZuJ2Ls3D
I don’t think 10 days will be enough. The incubation time for COVID-19 could be up to 24 days

https://t.co/Xkb0g98pHs
Today was the first day new cases from outside China > new cases from inside China

https://t.co/6i4efOQU8v
Wew, Lads...

Iran has some unique perspectives on containing COVID-19:

https://t.co/t5oY3YpcSW
If anything good has come from COVID-19, it is this:

https://t.co/qtYQ9DJuL7
An updated COVID-19 tracker from the generous and dedicated @jodigraphics15

covid2019.azurewebsites.net
Another awesome example of the international volunteer effort to produce data on COVID-19 👇🏽

https://t.co/KqqpgqmDx2
The US has its first locally transmitted case

https://t.co/i5p3tFnKBH
Some info on what the Trump administration has done to prepare for this, thanks to @TheLastRefuge2

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1232752…
US CDC issues level 3 travel notice for South Korea: avoid all non essential travel

https://t.co/IlSG6sIkSe
With close to 7,000 people under home quarantine in the Bay Area, this is not surprising. As far as we know nCoV is transmissible when asymptomatic & has a suspected long incubation period. People can infect many & more unaware that they’re sick, even

https://t.co/MdDkLHOfMu
A very good thread by Dr Scott Gottlieb about what is likely to happen and your best course of action: be smart, be prepared & stay calm. The system in the US have been and have the capacity to keep on handling it.

https://t.co/sC7JKmwyd5
KSA suspends religious travel to the country. They will not allow any pilgrims in.

https://t.co/6l6MnOsabh
Australia PM Scott Morrison talks about COVID-19 being a pandemic soon. Seems only the WHO is reluctant to call it that. Would love to know the reasons why

https://t.co/fwhaRf8G3r
Denmark has its first COVID-19 case: a reporter who went on vacation to Northern Italy

https://t.co/GUjbid519d
Iran: the gift that keeps giving. They have exported a goodly number of nCoV. Doubts exist over how truthful their official numbers are

https://t.co/iHZB04AuAT
Today’s update for the COVID-19 app. This is a great resource

https://t.co/KvxddfdxKw
Big public gatherings are ideal places to spread the virus. It may be a really good idea to not attend for a while 😐

https://t.co/E4yizgZ55z
Some solid advice to help you prepare for a possible outbreak. Chances are, if you get this, it’ll be mild, barring you having some risk factor. The biggest life interruptions will be due to quarantine efforts/supply chain interruptions
https://t.co/kWu0yktaSM
Iran seems to think that some government decree might scare the virus into submission or something. They seem to insist on mingling with known infected without proper precautions:

https://t.co/EKHiLX2I8V
Iran is now exporting COVID-19 to China 🤨

https://t.co/rZaX8rJyJA
How is this possible when Italy, the ME, the spread through Europe seem to definitely indicate exactly the opposite?

https://t.co/9ioj3Y1j62
In how close contact was he with the pope, who was said to have “medical issues” today?

https://t.co/aWFdwL2aoS
Pre-published, but a possible explanation for the success of the spread of this virus?

scmp.com/news/china/soc…
*pre-print, sorry
Another study that points to asymptomatic spread of SARS-CoV2. Focus on contact tracing & investigation of Contamines ski resort cluster

https://t.co/PGYXNxch8v
A chart indicating the symptoms & timeline of a COVID-19 infection. This is not “set in stone”, but helpful none the less:

https://t.co/6fUo77UMOa
Another voice of caution against saying COVID-19 is not transmissible while patients are asymptomatic:

https://t.co/SGGlYsUEJ3
With all the hysterics in reporting from both sides of the media, this may be a good move to consolidate the message & prevent misinformation from spreading. It is not unprecedented: 0bama did the same with Ebola scare

https://t.co/Lh5IBiGHj3
Prudent then to have a broader preparedness, considering most of upper management in larger corporations that drive the economic engine would fall in a high risk category for COVID-19

https://t.co/dTprXK7EZU
Map showing readiness of African countries. I am not sure how they would measure this. Mozambique is listed as green. This is doubtful. Their healthcare infrastructure was incapable of handling the consequences of the recent flooding they had.
https://t.co/EPicEP8hyL
The Netherlands confirmed their first case today.

https://t.co/iKcH75X4Sy
Add Nigeria to the map for COVID-19

https://t.co/fcgSR8cvFc
COVID-19 mortality rate by age group

https://t.co/afcajXQv7x
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