On the first day of tracking whether the new coronavirus model Dr. Birx is using is accurate, the data on the ground exceeded the highest end of the model for deaths and new cases by 15%+.
Assumptions re: what will be possible in August must be rethought. cnn.com/2020/04/02/pol…
Assumptions re: what will be possible in August must be rethought. cnn.com/2020/04/02/pol…
PS/ In other words, far too many big decisions are being made that are predicated on the assumption that by August daily coronavirus deaths will have dropped to zero and Americans will be psychologically prepared to return to normal life. That assumption is wrong in several ways.
PS2/ First, so far nothing is happening consistent with a model that says daily deaths will be at zero in August, and even a daily death rate in the hundreds would be consistent with the rate America had when many states put themselves in lockdown. Why would August be different?
PS3/ Second, until there's a vaccine, coronavirus is a seasonal phenomenon, meaning sometime in September/October—even under the best-case scenario, in which we evade regular waves of infection—a new season of infection would begin, requiring us to return to our current policies.
PS4/ Third, as the data isn't heading the way the Trump administration presumes—and as we know there'll be second/subsequent waves of infection—why does it make sense for America to try to return to normal for 30 days when most won't be psychologically prepared to do it, anyway?
PS5/ Everyone in America now knows that the safest presumption is that we'll be in a state of quarantine—or something close to it—until there's a vaccine, and that we won't actually be doing enough to reduce the total toll from this until there's a *national stay-at-home order*.
PS6/ Entities like the Democratic National Committee have a choice between abiding in denial and adapting to circumstances. Planning to hold a face-to-face convention to August is living in denial; considering "virtual convention" options would exhibit dynamism and adaptability.
PS7/ Even in a best-case scenario—where daily deaths are down to zero by August, a vaccine seems close, and Americans are willing to go back to normal before a still-distant second wave hits—who wants to watch a giant televised party? Hundreds of thousands of people will be dead.
