Tim White Profile picture
30 May, 46 tweets, 35 min read
Hello! It's a super sunny Sunday in (almost) all of #UK, enjoy the BBQ & don't worry too much about #Covid19

This is the daily #Coronavirus megathread and soon I'll make my predictions about🚦travel review.

To my anonymous donors💚just sorry I can't thank you personally.
Late on yesterday's thread some alarming news from #Bahrain, and also on there data from #Argentina and #Brazil

But today in the next 2 tweets, I'll start by taking a look at the infection situation which can go a long way to determining🟢🚦countries

Europe's most #Covid19 infected nations (7-day rate AD/M)
Same top 10. NL slow getting cases down

1 #Sweden 188
2 #Netherlands 182
3 #Lithuania 177
4 #Latvia 168
5 #Denmark 167
6 #Belgium 164
7 #Greece 154
8 #Andorra 148
9 #France 139
10 #Slovenia 135

Europe's least #Covid19 infected nations (AD/M)
Incredibly low numbers. #Poland 11th

1 #SanMarino 4.21
2 #Iceland 5.43
3 #Albania 6.01
4 #Malta 9.70
5 #Kosovo 13.3
6 #Romania 16.3
7 #NorthMacedonia 16.3
8 #Moldova 17.9
9 #Slovakia 22.7
10 #Finland 24.8

The next few Tweets concern UK🚦announcement

We still don't know when @grantshapps will update the list, as he's already missed his first "3 week" semi-promise.
Friday was 3 weeks after the initial list was published, but Mon 7 June is 3 weeks after it came into effect.
Some newspapers are reporting that Mr Shapps won't even make the🚦announcement until Thursday, with it coming into effect a week later, which would be 3 weeks and 3 days after the travel ban was lifted.
Personally I think 3 weeks between reviews is too long, stability is good
..but any deterioration in #Covid19 rates would not wait 3 weeks and any territory can be removed very quickly, but no country can be added "mid-term"

The first list disappointed many. I see "experts" like Paul Charles rewriting history saying they predicted all green nations
..but failing to mention they predicted loads more would be green!
I was much more conservative and nearer the mark, as was ever reliable @EvilDoctorK, #Malta was the only nation to miss out which we both thought would make it.
Because of #IndianVariant I think UK Govt..
..will be more cautious than initially planned, but I still see no reason for not adding many more countries.

First outside of Europe, I doubt anywhere in Africa or Asia will be put on🟢list and nowhere in S.America will come off🔴
In N.America, #Canada #Mexico will stay🟠
But #USA could be an unlikely candidate to turn🟢
#Covid19 7-day infection rate is down to under 45/100k, vaccination is high, data reliable, good genomic sequencing (ability to identify variants)

Another factor is that not many large groups of "drinking parties" head to US
Caribbean is interesting with many candidates to be included on🟢list. I don't share many writers' views that many will be made quarantine free. Even #StLucia is ticking up slightly and with small populations, things can change rapidly while data may not be too accurate
There was some 'political' reason for #Jamaica not being on the "good list" last year, and I have not seen any evidence for that changing. However, I do think #Barbados will be put on the green list. Excellent medical facilities and research, plus a larger population.
#CaymanIslands may also sneak on to green, but I'm not holding my breath.

In Australasia no change. Remember it's not just about holidays for Brits. Aus and NZ on green list is very important for families, so people there can visit relatives in UK without quarantine.
Now Europe.
#Malta is a certainty to go🟢Surely!
#Finland too was unfortunate not to be included last time and should make it this week.

#Albania has a good chance on case data alone (4.2/100k rate) but may be seen as too risky
#Romania too is 'borderline' for me (11/100k)
#Slovakia 100% should turn🟢in the coming UK🚦travel review. Low cases, reliable data, good science. All indicators lower than Portugal when it went green 3 weeks ago.
#Portugal stays green, but WARNING - if current trend continues, it could be "flashing green" in 3 weeks
#Poland also has all indicators lower than Portugal had 3 weeks ago. Some express worries over #Covid19 testing volume in Poland, but for example today 579 new infections in 44,900 tests. Positive test rate on 1.29%
Poland should be on @grantshapps'🟢list
Other nations on my '10 least infected' list published earlier, have too little data or not high enough scientific criteria to be considered for🟢in my opinion

Countries in with a shout:
#Austria (7-day rate 37/100k)
#Germany (38)
#Italy (41)

#Spain (69) #France (99) stay🟠
Of the 3 'possibles'⬆️I would put #Germany at the top of the list and a week ago I would have included the country on the green list, and possibly Austria and Italy too. But with the rise in cases here in UK, we may be more cautious, and Germany's ban on Brits won't help!
That leaves just islands, with scope for adding many holiday hotspots here, if Grant Shapps keeps his word to treat islands differently to mainland countries.

Italy's islands get many tourists, and as I reported this week #Sardinia should go🟢Sicily🟠

#Spain won't be on the🟢list what about islands?
I doubt #Balearics and #Canaries will be subdivided, although an outbreak on one island may see it returned to amber list.
I expect both island groups to be made🟢, however I understand there is some reticence over Balearics..
The government and the🚦committee are concerned about large 'party' groups who are largely less cautious and less likely to follow rules (esp after alcohol), heading to Mallorca and Ibiza in particular.
But Balearics have done well to fight #Covid19 and they should be🟢
Finally islands of #Greece
Sadly the biggest #Crete (86/100k) and #Corfu (152k) are too high for this review.
Vaccination rates are getting better but data is a little sketchy and on smaller islands things can change insanely quickly with just 5 cases changing everything..

In general the lower the population, then the infection rate has to be even lower to give confidence to the committee to include an island on🟢list.

I would recommend the following islands to be added to the no-quarantine category this week..
#Ikaria #KeaKythnos #Kefalonia #Kos #Mykonos #Rhodes (but this is borderline, next 2 days' data could tip it either way) #Samos #Sporades (any island), #Zakynthos

#Chios and #Paros are borderline and 2 good days could see them sneak on too.

I should mention #Cyprus and #Croatia too

Cyprus does mass testing, but even so I think its' rate is slightly too high for this review (60/100k), if only because of govt fears over masses of drunks descending on Agia Napa

Croatia (54/100k) is close, wait just 3 more weeks!
phew! I need to lie in the sun a while!
I see a stack of messages arrived, I'll try answer all a.s.a.p.

Sorry if I disappointed anyone, trying to be realistic.

If anyone's super happy, donations still welcome🙏

I mentioned #Mexico in the review above, and worth noting that #Covid19 cases have started to tick up again there.

Today's the 4th successive day of marked rise in numbers. 2,725 new infections and 387 deaths

So far Central America's largely avoided the troubles further south.
We have no idea of the #Covid19 situation in #Russia due to lies and manipulation.

What we do know is the death rate has been increasing while reported cases stood still.
But today The Kremlin has admitted to 9,694 infections, the highest daily total for over 10 weeks.
So far today among European nations, only #Russia has reported higher cases of #Covid19 than last Sunday.

🇭🇷🇺🇦🇵🇱🇪🇪🇦🇹🇱🇻🇱🇹🇨🇿🇭🇺🇸🇰🇸🇮🇧🇪🇲🇹 all showing continued falls in their infection rates.
#Finland has just reported 63 new cases of #Covid19

That's the lowest daily total since 18 September according to my records.

Don't know if it's finally warmed up in Finland and outdoor life has helped but infection rate's falling incredibly quickly there now.
#UK data today are delayed according to the government because of an IT problem with Welsh statistics.

445 new #Covid19 cases discovered today, that's only around 8% higher than last Sunday.
No further deaths.

#Azores continue to have some problems. Another 28 infections, which could jeopardise its expected place on the Green List
#Algarve 17
#Madeira 10
#Lisbon 185
A small RISE in #Covid19 cases in #Greece

Last Sunday was a low figure, so hopefully a blip, but this is the 4th day in a row with worse than hoped for figures, and now a real concern.

907 new infections, up 30 (4%), and 30 deaths.
The number of ICU patients falls below 500
#Netherlands saw cases rise yesterday but much better news today.

A larger than expected fall with just 2,719 new infections of #Covid19, some 700 below last Sunday's total.
As expected, #Denmark's infection rate rises again.
949 more cases of #Covid19 diagnosed in the last 24 hours, which is 14% up on last Sunday.

The 7 day rate is now virtually unchanged from a week ago after the falls at the start of the week.
#Chile sees cases rise by almost 20% again.
7,751 new #Covid19 infections and 121 new deaths in what is clearly now the country's 4th wave. Alarmingly 3 of them have happened after vaccination got underway.
#Greece #Covid19 regional data
445 of today's 907 cases were in #Athens area

Today I'm afraid ALL these islands have increased numbers

58 #Crete
18 #Corfu
6 #Rhodes
5 #Lesbos
3 #Naxos
2 #Syros #Mykonos #Kalymnos
1 #Chios #Lefkada #Paros #Zakynthos
#UK's data finally released and it's crushing news with new cases of #Covid19 up another 45% on last Sunday.

3,240 infections diagnosed, up from 2,235
Deaths up one again from 5 to 6. The small increases in deaths add up. Fatalities are up 43% on the week.
#Ireland completes a fairly stable week with a nice fall.
374 new cases of #Covid19, down just over 15%.
No further deaths.
More good news for #Cyprus. No further deaths and today the #Covid19 positive test rate fell to under 0.1%

Just 44 new cases, down 40%. That lowers the infection rate to 81 AD/M or 57/100k
#France continues its somewhat gentle descent from the last peak.

8,541 more #Covid19 cases today. That's a 12% reduction in infections. With cases not falling as quickly as in other countries, the fear is a new variant could quickly reverse the trend.
44 new deaths
#Bulgaria's just reported its lowest daily total for over 8 months.

Just 53 new cases of #Covid19, down from 81 last Sunday.
20th September was the last time there were fewer daily cases
#Argentina may be making headway as #Covid19 cases appear to be on the decline again.

21,346 new cases tonight, 14% down on last Sunday.
However earlier this week cases fell for 3 days in a row until Thursday's all-time record.
348 more deaths
The other news in #Argentina tonight: renewed rumours that #CopaAmerica2021 may be cancelled just 2 weeks before kick-off.

Argentina is sole host after joint hosts Colombia pulled out, but Health Minister in Buenos Aires admits it's not 100% certain.

#Colombia broke its national record for daily deaths yesterday with 540, and today it's the second highest ever daily toll as 535 more people have died of #Covid19

New cases are down around 5% to 20,218.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Tim White

Tim White Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @TWMCLtd

29 May
Saturday's #Coronavirus megathread starts here.

Thanks so much for everyone who contributed yesterday, if you have no idea what I'm on about here's another sneaky link to my crowdfunder!

It's a quite start today following the flurry of news last night..

So a lot of data and a couple of new stories came in during the last hour or so of Friday, including South America data.

You can catch up on #Argentina #Brazil #Colombia #Bulgaria #Norway stats, and some #OlympicGames news by clicking and scrolling ⬇️

Now more very concerning news from #Bahrain, one of the most vaccinated territories on the planet.

#Covid19 cases are still rising there - more worrying is the real increase in deaths too.
Second highest daily number of new cases & deaths in the latest update
graph @Worldometers Image
Read 24 tweets
28 May
Finally, here is Friday's #Coronavirus megathread

🚦review imminent, I'm getting a lot of questions.
I reply to everyone but it's so time consuming
I'm now working on 7-day rates for EVERY Greek island.

No obligation but if my efforts are worth £1, thx

I'll continue to post free advice and data, so nothing will be hidden from anyone, so please don't be angry or upset! And yes you can still ask questions!

So the big news in UK today is that the single shot Jansen (J&J) #Covid19 vaccine has been approved

The big #Covid19 data news overnight is that #Argentina smashed its own record again, topping 40,000 cases in a day for the first time.

41,080 new cases to be precise, up around 15% on last week's total.
Another 547 new deaths
Read 45 tweets
15 Mar
Which countries are the worst liars when it comes to #Covid19 deaths (and which are the most honest)?

There's no definitive way of stating, but analysis of excess deaths is a guide to the real extent of #Coronavirus

I've worked out official deaths as a % of excess deaths..
This is the best way to expose clear cheating.
But it's not perfect

Many nations suspected of underplaying #Covid19 deaths don't declare mortality data, notably India, Indonesia and Turkey, though for the latter two stats are available for the biggest cities Jakarta/Istanbul
Data are the latest available for each country but e.g. while Peru, Spain, UK are right up to date, others are >6 months old.

Some nations have negative excess deaths, e.g. Taiwan, New Zealand, Thailand, Australia, Japan, Iceland, Norway.
Having lockdowns, mask wearing etc
Read 10 tweets
14 Mar
Sunday's #Coronavirus megathread will, as always, be updated throughout the day with news, data and analysis.

Few paid attention while we warned of rising #Covid19 cases in the Balkans then central Europe. Now everyone's concerned as big nations suffer.

Come inside folks!
And I'll start with Europe's biggest nation (in population), #Germany

A further 27% rise in #Covid19 cases confirmed overnight with 10,572 new infections for Saturday vs 8,311 the week before.
#Brazil's been the focus of much attention of late as deaths soar.

The number of people who were reported to have died of #Covid19 yesterday actually dipped, but only because it's the weekend. In fact 1,940 deaths is 30% higher than last Saturday's 1,498

New cases: 70,934 (+5%)
Read 28 tweets
13 Mar
The daily #Coronavirus thread is underway.

If Friday turned out to be fearful, we can only hope it's not a shocking Saturday.

More and more countries and regions heading back into lockdown as #Covid19 spreads quicker then the vaccines.

And already today new record - read on..
The first record to report is from crisis-torn #Brazil

For the 3rd successive day over 2,000 deaths.
But it's new #Covid19 cases rewriting the record books today with 84,047 positive tests, that's 12% more than the week before

2,152 more deaths takes total fatalities over 275k
Almost a record for #Norway too tonight.

905 new #Covid19 infections diagnosed in the last 24 hours, just 25 below the national record. Today's total is 31% up on the previous week.

Over 300 more Covid patients have been admitted to hospital in the last 2 days alone.
Read 42 tweets
1 Dec 20
#Coronavirus thread for Tuesday as #Croatia, #Finland #Slovakia face new problems and #Russia has the blackest day so far in the pandemic.

But #Poland and #USA have better days

All the #Covid19 news and analysis throughout the day is here...
Let's start with #Russia, which earlier today registered it's 40,000th death from #Covid19 related problems.

Today's death toll of 569 is by far the highest so far admitted to by the Kremlin, beating the old record by 45

New cases remain fairly stable at 26,402
#Hungary looked to be heading for a 3rd #Coronavirus peak, but slightly more encouraging news today

The daily total of 3951 new cases of #Covid19 is only 22 up on last Tuesday, but I suspect more problems ahead; Thursday will be crucial

Also today, 2nd highest death toll of 154
Read 29 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!