Thread by @jseldin

Happening now: Most destabilizing factor in the world today - "There are so many" @ODNIgov Dir Avril Haines tells @SilveradoPolicy @Google Leadership & Service Forum

NEW: "The mismatch between what we perceive to be #Putin's even near-term military objectives & the fact that his military can't actually achieve them is a destabilizing factor" per @ODNIgov Dir Avril Haines "It has raised the potential for escalation"

#Russia-#Ukraine

Another destabilizing factor - "The way in which disruptive technologies are emerging in many respects, the kind of convergence of so many fields of science" per @ODNIgov’s Haines

Also destabilizing "the degree to which we are in this interconnected incredibly complex world &the fact things can rise so quickly" per @ODNIgov’s Haines pointing to #bio-threats, #COVID19

"We hope the folks that work in our institutions are capable of giving us enough warning"

"We are keenly engaged in responding to the destabilizing activity that #Russia posses across a host of issues" inclu #cyber, per @TheJusticeDept Deputy AG Lisa Monaco

#Cyber worries - "What we call the blended threat of nation states & criminal actors who are perpetrating malicious activity &indeed sometime destructive, & concerningly so, activity in the cyber space" per @TheJusticeDept's Monaco

"We seeing them form marriages of opportunity"

Big concern - polarization: "The polarization in our society, the divisiveness that too often is resulting in violence & threats of violence against public officials, from election workers to judges to airline workers" @TheJusticeDept's Monaco

"Really really concerning"

@NATO expansion w/#Finland & #Sweden - Reax form #Russia's #Putin

"It's really remarkable" per @ODNIgov’s Haines "It's another example of how he's precipitated the events he was trying to avoid"

W/#Sweden #Finland set to join @NATO, "now #Russia is the only non-NATO member of the #Arctic Council" per @ODNIgov’s Haines "You can see how that makes Russia feel like they are surrounded, in effect"

"One of their narratives is that @NATO is militarizing the #Arctic, so [NATO expansion] so this leans into the narrative that they promote in that context" per @ODNIgov’s Haines

NEW: #Russia reax to @NATO expansion - "We expect & have already seen to some extent that they will engage in information campaigns" per @ODNIgov’s Haines "...trying to convince the #Finnish & #Swedish ppltn that this will actually reduce their security"

"We've already seen they're sort of trying to actively push #Sweden & #Finland in public statements...but nothing that is truly confrontational" per @ODNIgov’s Haines

#Russia reax to @NATO expansion-"We don't expect that it will result in something that is truly confrontational largely bcs frankly they're pretty focused on #Ukraine" per @ODNIgov’s Haines

"It may result in them shifting their posture over a long time & we'll just have to see"

"We don't perceive that #Putin's broader objectives have changed at this stage" in #Ukraine, per @ODNIgov’s Haines

"What we do see is he's kind of gotten beyond the disappointment of their military action not doing what they wanted on the timeline he expected..."

#Donbas, consolidating power in southern #Ukraine is #Russia's, #Putin's focus for now, per @ODNIgov’s Haines

"#Russia thinks if they are able to crush really one of the most capable & well-equipped forces in the east of #Ukraine, that they believe that will lead to a slump in the Ukrainian resistance & that will give them greater opportunities" per @ODNIgov’s Haines

BUT "even their near-term military objectives are really not capable of being achieved by their military right now" per @ODNIgov’s Haines

"That will require them to change some strategy"

"Our military analysts do not assess the tactical shifts to their strategy will be sufficient to really allow them to take most of #Ukraine, which continues to be part of the broader objective" per @ODNIgov’s Haines

"So what do they do then?" she asks

NEW: US intelligence has NOT seen any shift in #Russia's nuclear posture aside from saying it will send nuclear-capable missiles to #Belarus, per @ODNIgov’s Haines

#Russia sanctions- "We're seeing successes here - one of them just sailed into the port in #SanDiego" per @TheJusticeDept Deputy AG Lisa Monaco, referencing seized luxury yacht

"You can't hide these assets...We'll go as far as #Fiji &as close as #Spain,inclu. right here at home"

Endgame in #Ukraine for #Russia's #Putin - "It is possible that he takes some sort of interim agreement, in effect, as an opportunity to pause & rebuild what is his military" per @ODNIgov Dir Haines

NEW: "We assess at this stage that they're ground forces [#Russia's] have been degraded to the point where it will take them years to get back to where they were in many respects" per @ODNIgov’s Haines

"It is entirely plausible from our perspective that depending on how things develop over the coming months & so on that he [#Putin] is convinced that there is value in effect, coming to some sort of agreement" per @ODNIgov’s Haines

re #Putin's calculus on #Ukraine

Even with such a deal/pause, Putin "still retains broader ambitions and will still be looking to pursue those over time" in #Ukraine, per @ODNIgov’s Haines

Prospects for #Russia-#Ukraine talks - "We also, to be clear, don't see right now an opportunity for both sides to come to a peaceful agreement" per @ODNIgov’s Haines

#China gvt support for #Russia?

"They've tried very hard to quite publicly not take a critical stance of Russia" per @ODNIgov’s Haines "Yet at the same time what we do see is that they are helping the Russians in a variety of ways behind the scenes"

NEW: #China's Xi Jinping "quite clearly sees reunification of #Taiwan as a goal" but force is opt 2 for now, per @ODNIgov’s Haines

"He continues to prefer doing that peacefully as opposed to using military force but he is clearly pursuing the potential of using military force"

"There are not indications that he [#China's Xi] is currently intending to take #Taiwan by military force even as he is planning for the potential" per @ODNIgov’s Haines

Ties between domestic violent extremism & foreign influences - "Not an operational nexus but rather a social media kind of ideological nexus" per @ODNIgov’s Haines

"Folks are communicating w/groups in other countries"

Asked by @CBSNews's @Olivia_Gazis if US if net exporter or net importer of far-right extremism, both @ODNIgov’s Haines & @TheJusticeDept's Monaco say, "I don't know"

#January6 - "I can't predict for you how more defendants will be charged or what that time horizon is bcs we are doing what we should do which is following the facts & the law wherever they lead" per @TheJusticeDept's Monaco

.@TheJusticeDept "will hold perpetrators to account no matter what level they may have occupied & whether they were there on #January 6 or not" per Deputy AG Monaco

#Election2022 #Election2024 - another January 6th possible?

"I really really hope not" per @TheJusticeDept's Monaco "We're going to do everything we can to make sure that doesn't happen"

"We have seen a very disturbing trend in threats to election workers...threats of violence" per @TheJusticeDept's Monaco "Across all parties"

Points to new Election Threats Task Force - "We are very very focused"

Election interference - "We certainly see that there are efforts at election influence" per @ODNIgov’s Haines

"We do see an increasing landscape of actors...besides the classic state actors" she says "Others who are being used by those who want to engage in election influence"

US, intel community thwarting election interference efforts "all the time" per @ODNIgov’s Haines