Quick thread about Saudi Arabia's threats to Hezbollah (and Lebanon as a whole):
No, Saudi Arabia isn't about to bomb Lebanon. It can't. It has no border with Lebanon.
At closest, there are some 200 kms between the northernmost tip of Saudi Arabia and the southernmost tip of Lebanon
In fact, nobody in the region can reasonably attack Hezbollah (and make it hurt) except Israel.
The only way for Saudi Arabia to militarily threaten Lebanon would be to ally with Israel to find a pretext for the latter to attack.
Israel of course would have its own reasons to attack Hezbollah - and may see a coming war with Hezbollah as inevitable.
After the last war (2006) Hezbollah has been careful not to give Israel any pretext to attack. Israel on the other hand made it clear that the next war would devastate Lebanon entirely, not just Hezbollah.
And so Hezbollah will *not* be giving Israel a pretext for attack anytime soon, and if that ever happens, Lebanon in its entirety will suffer bad.
If (when?) Israel attacks Hezbollah next, the regional response will be very different. Last time (2006) Hezbollah were hailed as heroes by Arabs across the region...
But between 2006 and now, Hezbollah has thrown away its once-massive popularity in the Arab region, through its sectarian commitment to Assad and Khamenei.
For that reason, Israel will likely not face seriously backlash if it attacks Hezbollah (in fact it has hit Hezbollah targets inside Syria over the past years repeatedly)
However when it comes to hurting Lebanon as a whole and causing mass/collective suffering to civilians, that's another matter. No Arab person (or human being) with a conscience can condone that.
We know that Saudi Arabia/UAE and Israel have been getting closer, united by the perceived common threat of Iranian expansionism, of which Hezbollah is a factor.
So it's not inconceivable that Saudi Arabia/UAE and Israel have been talking about the possibility of a punishing Israeli strike to Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon.
Understand: Lebanon is defenseless. Israel has superior firepower and will be in total control of Lebanon's airspace in hours and will bomb it at will.
Barring military action (by Israel), Saudi Arabia can hurt Lebanon economically and (try to) isolate it diplomatically. And these kinda measures may be imminent.
Saudi Arabia accuses Hezbollah of being directly involved in actions against Saudi Arabia, esp arming & training the Houthis who are now send missiles into Saudi Arabia.
Hezbollah on the other hand has upped its rhetoric against Saudi Arabia and doesn't hide its contempt and hatred for its regime.
Now the problem is - Hezbollah is a militant faction but also a political party and is involved in Lebanon's internal politics and governance
Saudi Arabia has issued a warning to the Lebanese state - either eject Hezbollah from your governance or be treated as Hezbollah (!)
The Lebanese state is basically faced with an impossible decision. If it ejects Hezbollah, it faces its (very military) wrath. If it ignores Saudi Arabia, it faces economic, diplomatic, and possibly military retaliation.
The saying goes in Lebanon: "Even if you're politically pro-Iran all the good jobs are in Riyadh and Dubai"
Lebanese diaspora are an economic force in the Gulf region and have both benefited Gulf economies and benefited from them.
If Saudi Arabia/UAE take diplomatic actions against Lebanese citizens there will be a harsh economic impact for everyone around.
Some people think it's unimaginable that Saudi Arabia/UAE will take such harsh measures - but look what they did with Qatar and Yemen. Collective punishment runs in their blood.
Add to that, there's this unfortunate mentality at the highest echelons of Saudi/UAE decision making that values financial/material assets over human beings. But that's for another discussion. I'll end the thread here.
I just noticed that I made several typos while typing this up, sorry, can't edit tweets so excuse the mistakes
I just saw this, linking without comment about veracity: "'Explosive' Leaked Secret Israeli Cable Confirms Israeli-Saudi Coordination To Provoke War - zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-0…
Like I said above. Hezbollah is by no means innocent, and the Iranian regime's expansionism has had disastrous consequences for the region. But Lebanon itself, in its entirety, will suffer if this escalates.
Also let me add: If Israel *does* go ahead and attack Hezbollah, Saudi Arabia will likely not reveal that it approves of this, and will likely simply say "We sympathize with the suffering but Hezbollah had it coming"
