Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #RateHikes

Most recents (8)

Last week the latest #SalmanKhan starrer arrived in theatres, and the reviews seem mixed, depending whether one is a #Bhai fan or a critic. Meanwhile, what is the review on the market’s performance last week? Let’s break out the popcorn and watch. (1/8)
#Sensex and #Nifty dropped by over 1.1%. #RBI representatives remained optimistic about India’s #domesticgrowth during the monetary policy committee meeting, despite concerns about uneven growth in the economy & weak demand from outside India. (2/8)
Another big reason for the drop was the weak performance of #Infosys during Q4FY23. The #BSE tech & #IT indices dropped over 5%, as overall IT results were on the weaker side. (3/8)
Read 8 tweets
Today’s #JobsReport was very solid, but like is often the case in the movies, it’s very hard for the sequel (today’s report) to match such an unexpected hit (January’s revised 504,000 jobs gained).
Still, a nonfarm #payroll gain of 311,000 jobs is quite good and having 815,000 jobs created so far this year after the #economy has already created 12 million #jobs over the past two years is pretty amazing in its own right.
Further, the 3-month moving average of 351,000 jobs, after a 12-month moving average of 362,000 jobs gained per month is also pretty remarkable, particularly after the market-implied pricing of the terminal #FedFunds rate has move up 500 basis points (bps) in a year.
Read 17 tweets
TODAY IN THE MARKETS
$VIX

Down day for the #SPX, and the #VIX closed down -6.26% and below 20DMA

Yesterday: large bearish engulfing candle
Today: Continuation

Despite the lack of sync this looks like a bullish development for $SPX

#ES_F #trading $SPY $ES #options #VIX $VVIX
$XLF
#XLF was rejected at 20DMA

The sector remains above the 200DMA, and near support

For the October #SPX rally to continue it's necessary for #XLF to hold above $34.40

#trading #banks #options #ES_F $SPX $SPY $ES #DayTrading #Futures #inflation #ratehikes #Fed #Financial
$QQQ
It is in "the pinch", right between the 100DMA and the 20DMA.
One is support, the other is resistance

Let's see which side #QQQ comes out on.

It's still in the uptrend channel.

#NASDAQ #IXIC #NDX $NDX #NQ_F #options #trading #Futures #DayTrading #TradingSignals #SPX #ES_F
Read 10 tweets
Today’s #JobsReport revealed an #economy that is producing #jobs at a slower pace than it has over the prior several months.
That said, a historic number of jobs have been created in this recovery since the fall of 2020, so a slowing in the pace of #growth isn’t unexpected.
Even with today’s somewhat slower rate of #hiring at 315,000 jobs for the month of August, the 3-month and 6-month average of #payroll gains has been 378,000 and 381,000 jobs, respectively, which is clearly indicative of slowing today from a point of strength.
Read 12 tweets
Today is #WorldPopulationDay, which reminds us that while #ElonMusk is determined to contribute to increasing the population, he has also managed to upset the existing one, by backing out of the Twitter deal. Good thing that the markets were more stable, than Musk’s mood. 1/7
Talking about the “impending recession” seems to be the trend. So, it was a surprise last week, when both the #Sensex & the #Nifty went ↑ by almost 3%. Potential reasons? Maybe the cooldown in the prices of #commodities. This helps sectors like #Auto, #Realty, & #FMCG. 2/7
So naturally, both the #NiftyFMCG & #NiftyRealty were ↑ over 5%. #NiftyAuto was also ↑ 3.5%. In fact, every sectoral index was painting the town green. Global indices were also mostly up. The S&P 500 was ↑ 1.94% & the #NASDAQ100 ↑ by 4.6%. 3/7
Read 7 tweets
As the first rate hike of this new (imho very short) rate hike cycle is getting closer, let's have a look at the performance of the #USD, #commodities and #gold before and after the first hike:
Will the #USD rally? Not necessarily..

The period prior to a US tightening shows a rally in the USD but very often weakens in the 6-month period following the first hike....
What about #commodities? Consensus would tell us that raising rates will cause commodities to sell off.

Not really. ..The first rate hike proved to be close to the bottom for the 2015 cycle, and all cycles were higher a couple of months out...
Read 7 tweets
So #FOMC decides to keep rates unchanged at 0%-0.25%

Interest on excess reserves raised by 5bps from 0.10% to 0.15%

Inflation forecast raised by 100bps from 2.4% to 3.4%,though #Fed says long term goal is 2%

No #RateHike before 2023,says Powell;In March,he said,not before 2024
So called overnight #Repo operations where banks exchange high-end collateral for reserves,have been seeing record demand lately,as institutions look for any yield above the negative rates they are seeing in some markets

No plans to stop $120bn of monthly Bond purchases by #Fed
In separate matter,#FOMC announced,it would extend dollar-swap lines with global central banks through end of the yr

Currency program is the last #Covid-era initiative,Fed took to keep global markets flowing

Basically,Fed decides to stay with liquidity glut&easy money policy
Read 5 tweets
Little new information was gleaned from the #Fed yesterday, as the central bank is clearly on a “steady as she goes” path, and we expect #ratehikes in both September and December, but the path of rate “normalization” may well slow in later 2019.
#MonetaryPolicy divergence continues to be the order of the day, as modest tweaks from the Bank of Japan this week, and the European Central Bank policy stance, remain extremely accommodative, even as the Fed’s confidence in the U.S. #economy grows.
Global monetary policy divergence, and its influence on currencies, may continue to reveal economic “stress points,” and indeed already have with certain #EM troubles and in the case of Italy; so policy “normalization” may witness its limits before many currently anticipate.
Read 3 tweets

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