, 12 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
1/ a lot of you see me post often that a recession is coming. I believe q1/q2 2020 it will happen and I will explain why it will happen then. However don’t expect 2008 unless student debt breaks the govt books (lol)
2/ back in the day when most of you were in high school, recessions came from negative gdp growth. The US hasn’t seen neg gdp in how long? And there’s a reason the #Fed won’t raise rates
3/ we live in an economy financed by debt. They raise the rates too high there won’t be any lending, and the economy will just explode. They won’t allow that to happen. It will be a slow bleed
4/ banks have 1TN in reserves. So what, it’s all QE trading and financed so it’s all bullshit what they save, this isn’t textbook if banks hold more they are contracting
5/ in December we had been on an S&p run since 2015 no volatility, there had to be a pullback, and it came. If you didn’t buy $fb at 17x earnings you’re an idiot
6/ here is what will happen. In March the S&p will have a pull back, this is a major buy. I see by 2020 the $spx #spx hitting 3100+. And i say this cuz of euphoria
7/ like in $btc retail will get euphoric about the stock market and fomo in like they always do its human nature. It is then in 2020 we get our blow off top and the stock market will crash
8/ we can all say the us economy keeps printing money. Who cares? This isn’t Venezuela. You’re purchasing power hasn’t gone down. Unemployment is low and salaries are on the rise. HOWEVER this isn’t sustainable
9/ whatever the cause will be for the recession, rates won’t go over 3%, and we won’t see negative growth. Fed funds rate in December was raised to 2.5 and there was massive panic.
10/ if you dont think for a second the fed won’t let this run for another 12-18 months your naive. I am sticking by this call including the S&p movement
11/ the contagion potential of japan and other debt holders is irrelevant right now, it will happen though that contagion will exist as the $dxy increases and other countries exhibit negative growth. 12-18 months see you then.
12/ i welcome discussion on this from the likes of @macrodesiac_ and @krugermacro . This thread is meant for discussion. How this affects crypto i have zero idea
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